Award Abstract # 9118898
Predictability of Blocking and Explosive Cyclogenesis

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
Initial Amendment Date: September 23, 1991
Latest Amendment Date: June 16, 1992
Award Number: 9118898
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Pamela L. Stephens
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: August 1, 1991
End Date: July 31, 1994 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $135,900.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $135,900.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 1991 = $71,900.00
FY 1992 = $64,000.00
History of Investigator:
  • Steven Mullen (Principal Investigator)
    mullen@atmo.arizona.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of Arizona
845 N PARK AVE RM 538
TUCSON
AZ  US  85721
(520)626-6000
Sponsor Congressional District: 07
Primary Place of Performance: DATA NOT AVAILABLE
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): ED44Y3W6P7B9
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC METEOROLOG
Primary Program Source:  
Program Reference Code(s):
Program Element Code(s): 152700
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

The overall goal of this project is to determine the predictability of large-scale atmospheric patterns on timescales of one to two weeks and rapidly developing midlatitude storms on timescales of one to two days. Sources of error in predicting these phenomena using numerical models can come from the model itself or from errors in the initial data used at the start of the prediction. This research will attempt to distinguish between the two, examining cases of rapidly developing storms (explosive cyclogenesis) and persistent periods of high amplitude atmospheric wave patterns known as atmospheric blocks. The work represents a continuation of research begun under a previous grant. The principal investigator will employ a more sophisticated and more complete version of a general circulation model than he used previously. This research ultimately should contribute to a better understanding of atmospheric dynamics and to improving short and medium range weather prediction.

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