
NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
Recipient: |
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Initial Amendment Date: | October 21, 2022 |
Latest Amendment Date: | July 7, 2023 |
Award Number: | 2228299 |
Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
Program Manager: |
Nicholas Anderson
nanderso@nsf.gov (703)292-4715 AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
Start Date: | November 1, 2022 |
End Date: | October 31, 2025 (Estimated) |
Total Intended Award Amount: | $458,238.00 |
Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $508,227.00 |
Funds Obligated to Date: |
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History of Investigator: |
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Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
4300 MARTIN LUTHER KING BLVD HOUSTON TX US 77204-3067 (713)743-5773 |
Sponsor Congressional District: |
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Primary Place of Performance: |
4800 W CALHOUN ST STE 316 HOUSTON TX US 77004 |
Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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Parent UEI: |
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NSF Program(s): | Physical & Dynamic Meteorology |
Primary Program Source: |
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Program Reference Code(s): | |
Program Element Code(s): |
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Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
Hurricanes have been the costliest natural disaster in US history thus far by causing billions of dollars in damage. Ocean warming and climate change can exacerbate tropical cyclone destruction by increasing the frequency and intensity of future major hurricanes. Only four recent hurricanes ? Katrina, Sandy, Maria, and Harvey ? resulted in more than $450B in damages and about 5,000 fatalities. Thus, it is imperative for the scientific community to better understand and forecast hurricane dynamics and its turbulent winds in order to effectively mitigate their economic ramifications. Although turbulence plays a significant role in hurricane evolution, it is neither thoroughly understood nor parameterized in hurricane flows. Given the remarkable impacts of future hurricanes on humans and the lack of a reliable turbulence scale model for such rotating flows, a high-fidelity hurricane model is now essential. This project aims to address this knowledge gap using a combination of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and observations to thrust forward the understanding of hurricane turbulence, and to develop practical methodologies for improving hurricane forecasts in NWP models.
The research provides pathways to new frontiers in turbulence theory and modeling of hurricane flows. In particular, the driving hypothesis of the project is ?turbulence dynamics in hurricane boundary layers (HBLs) are significantly different from typical atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs) due to rotation in HBLs and their large Rossby number (centrifugal/Coriolis force); therefore, existing turbulence models in NWPs limit the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.? This hypothesis will be tested by answering these open research questions 1) How do hurricanes modulate the characteristic mixing length scales and turbulence dynamics in the HBL? and 2) How should the horizontal and vertical turbulent fluxes of an HBL be parameterized in NWPs compared to typical ABLs? To answer these questions, a unique combination of high-fidelity large-eddy simulations (LESs), NWPs, and observations will be employed. The preliminary results support the project?s central hypothesis by demonstrating remarkably different turbulence structures and energy spectra in HBLs when compared to typical ABLs, and substantial improvements in NWP?s hurricane forecasts when current turbulence models are altered. Hence, addressing the above questions will advance the field of physical and dynamic meteorology by elucidating the distinctive turbulence mechanisms in hurricanes compared to conventional much-studied ABLs. Other notable expected outcomes of the project include an extensive dataset of high-resolution LESs of HBLs, new physics-based turbulence closures with rotation correction that are specifically designed for real hurricanes, and a dataset of improved hurricane simulations.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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