ABSTRACT

NSF Convergence Accelerator Track E: Combining high-resolution climate simulations with ocean biogeochemistry, fisheries and decision-making models to improve sustainable fisheries.

Fish and shellfish populations are a vital source of protein for many of the world?s people, and several of the largest are found along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, where cold, deep water moves towards the surface, bringing nutrients that support both production by plants (phytoplankton) and the fish populations that feed on them. To ensure sustainability, fish and shellfish managers need information not only on the number of animals available at any given time, but also on potential future numbers, so that they can plan for such things as the number of fishing boats required or the size of seafood processing plants. Forecasting what will occur in such eastern boundary areas is difficult, however, because local winds rapidly change conditions. Adverse climate impacts, such as rising ocean temperatures and increasing acidity, are already affecting many coastal fishing-dependent communities, and such longer-term changes also have to be considered. The project aims to develop a decision support system, which uses the latest ocean models incorporating marine physics, chemistry and biology, to assist fish and shellfish managers in making their decisions. This is important as there are many stakeholders involved in harvesting fish and shellfish, who may have potentially conflicting interests. To this end, the research is aimed at integrating the outputs from the ocean models with a web-based decision support system that will help fisheries managers and industry make informed decisions to ensure that both the industry and its associated food production are sustainable. The investigators will work directly with the stakeholders to develop tools that are specifically able to meet their needs. The initial focus of the work is the California Current system along the U.S. west coast from California to Washington, which supports a local seafood industry valued annually at about $12 billion, with additional billions from catches landed by foreign boats in the U.S. If successful, the new tools should be extendable to other similar regions of the global ocean, thus increasing the value of the research. The project will provide training for students, including those from under-represented groups, in the use of the latest ocean models, as well as development opportunities for young faculty members at the participating institutions.

Climate change-driven adverse ocean impacts are already affecting many rural, coastal, fishing-dependent communities, and these adverse impacts will likely accelerate for the foreseeable future.
Forecasting potential changes in eastern boundary upwelling systems has benefitted recently from improvements in the resolution of global Earth system models, so that the latest eddy-resolving models at 10 km ocean resolution have greatly reduced systematic errors relative to observations. This project aims to use these advancements to improve forecasts of the fisheries potential of the California Current Ecosystem and improve decision making by managers and other stakeholders. The project will couple the output from such a high-resolution model simulation with the Marine Biogeochemistry Library and Fisheries Size and Functional Type models, thus incorporating physics, chemistry and biology with climate variability. The results will be integrated with a prototype, web-based decision support system, that uses mathematical decision analysis capabilities, to assist fisheries managers to model the complex, climate-related decision problems on which fisheries production depends. This is vital to ensure that the region can continue to support a sustainable fishery in the long term and the communities that depend on fishing for a living. In Phase 1, the project will develop a prototype of this linked decision system. The project will also develop a well-networked multidisciplinary team of modelers, social scientists, fisheries managers, economists, and industry and community stakeholders to advance convergence science and develop avenues for more sustainable fisheries under a changing climate. This team is essential for developing tools that are directly applicable to the needs of fishery stakeholders and will be fostered by meaningful communication between all groups throughout the project period. If successful, the model suite and decision support system should be extendable to other similar regions of the global ocean. Students and post-doctoral researchers, the next generation of scientists, will be trained in decision analysis and to use the most current high-resolution models. Furthermore, the project will provide valuable professional development opportunities for early career female Co-PIs involved in the program.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

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