
NSF Org: |
EAR Division Of Earth Sciences |
Recipient: |
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Initial Amendment Date: | August 11, 2021 |
Latest Amendment Date: | June 27, 2023 |
Award Number: | 2053372 |
Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
Program Manager: |
Wendy Panero
wpanero@nsf.gov (703)292-5058 EAR Division Of Earth Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
Start Date: | August 1, 2021 |
End Date: | July 31, 2026 (Estimated) |
Total Intended Award Amount: | $346,881.00 |
Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $416,219.00 |
Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2023 = $69,338.00 |
History of Investigator: |
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Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
1776 E 13TH AVE EUGENE OR US 97403-1905 (541)346-5131 |
Sponsor Congressional District: |
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Primary Place of Performance: |
1202 University of Oregon Eugene OR US 97403-1202 |
Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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Parent UEI: |
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NSF Program(s): | Geophysics |
Primary Program Source: |
01002324DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
Program Reference Code(s): |
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Program Element Code(s): |
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Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
The world?s largest earthquakes occur on interconnected fault networks embedded in the Earth?s crust. The conditions under which large earthquakes occur is believed to be dependent on a millennia-long history of tectonic motion in the region, as well as other physical conditions such as frictional forces acting on the fault itself. The goal of this work is to use mathematical modeling to expand our understanding of the physics that dictate where and when an earthquake will occur. The high computational cost associated with simulating long periods of earthquake activity has limited previous modeling attempts to simple scenarios (for example, considering only a single fault, with no generation of damaging seismic waves). The PIs will overcome these limitations by using a high-performance implementation of their recently developed advanced numerical scheme for earthquake cycles. Key questions the researchers will explore include: why do some large earthquakes occur on faults that seem stable when subjected to tectonic loading? Results from these studies will improve seismic hazard estimates by shedding light on if and how such large earthquakes can occur on a given fault network. The codes will be made publicly available under a permissive open source license for use by others. In addition to supporting one junior faculty member (under-represented in her field) and one mid-career faculty member, the proposal supports the mentoring of two graduate students in interdisciplinary research.
The goal of this work is to expand understanding of the physical settings in which system-wide earthquakes can occur through the use of large-scale, physically-robust earthquake cycle models. This work will develop a large-scale, high-performance framework that accounts for complex fault geometries, off-fault material properties, and full dynamics in 3D volumes. The method will couple interseismic loading with coseismic rupture and wave propagation in a self-consistent manner. The coupled approach will be used to explore the role that tectonic loading, rupture history, fault geometry and other physical features play in system-wide failure of fault networks. This will include such studies as the keystone fault hypothesis, namely, that faults in a system that are optimally oriented with respect to the regional stress field are stabilized by misoriented keystone faults until the entire network is primed to fail. The high computational cost associated with simulating the interseismic period has limited previous cycle models to simple fault geometries, suppressed dynamic effects, and/or use small simulation volumes. The project will use recently developed hybridized scheme for the interseismic period, which is well suited for problems that in the past have been too computationally expensive. The hybrid method will be coupled with a newly developed technique for dynamic rupture simulation to study sequences of multiple earthquakes on complex fault networks. By leveraging state-of-the-art algorithms and high-performance computing, this work will lead to the development of a large-scale, physically robust, predictive modeling framework of earthquake source processes on complex fault networks. This new framework will allow the exploration of fundamental questions in earthquake science, focusing on how earthquakes can nucleate on misoriented faults, often giving rise to huge, network-wide events. The 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah and the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura are two well-known examples of earthquakes whose magnitudes exceeded expectations by cascading through multiple segments of a fault network. This work will contribute to seismic hazard estimates by calculating event probabilities associated with complex fault networks in a physically robust modeling environment, complementing and improving the greater efforts of the earthquake simulators currently used to inform earthquake forecasting. In order to benefit the larger earthquake science community the PIs will make the developed codes publicly available under the MIT license, and will use an open development strategy.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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