| NSF Org: |
SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | July 9, 2020 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | July 9, 2020 |
| Award Number: | 2035682 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Kwabena Gyimah-Brempong
kgyimahb@nsf.gov (703)292-7466 SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences SBE Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences |
| Start Date: | August 15, 2020 |
| End Date: | June 30, 2022 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $198,852.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $198,852.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
5801 S ELLIS AVE CHICAGO IL US 60637-5418 (773)702-8669 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
1307 E 60th Street Chicago IL US 60637-3298 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Economics |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.075 |
ABSTRACT
Social distancing is critical to slowing the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, which threatens the nation?s health, economy, and national defense. This research project studies people?s strategic behavior in deciding to follow public health rules or not. The project uses sophisticated economic theory and empirical methods to study strategic considerations that may hamper or facilitate compliance with public health guidelines to reduce the spread of COVID-19. One person?s choice to comply with social distancing regulation influences the costs and benefits to others doing so. As a result, individual behavior depends on beliefs about others? compliance and on social norms regarding compliance. This project increases understanding of individual behavior in group settings and highlights the conditions under which benefits of publicity in mass media campaigns, and provides hundreds of thousands of public health mailers to American residents may be beneficial. The results of this research project will help public health authorities to craft more efficient public information campaigns.
This research project uses theory and empirical methods based on a large data set from Cook county to investigate how beliefs in other peoples? response influence one?s decision to comply with public health rules. The theory extends previous research on two strategic considerations, conformity, and free-riding, that influence behavior by incorporating the related phenomenon of publicity. Publicity is found to amplify pro-social behavior only when conformity dominates free-riding; otherwise publicity will lessen the effectiveness of an informational campaign. The empirics analyze a vast public health campaign in Cook County, Illinois. The campaign will provide public health best practices directly to hundreds of thousands of Cook County households. Using a mix of public information and a voluntary survey, we will evaluate the effectiveness of the public health campaign in promoting behaviors identified as decreasing the risk of transmitting COVID-19. The results of this research project will help public health authorities to craft more efficient public information campaigns.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Social distancing was a key public health effort to slow the spread of COVID-19, but it was implemented haphazardly and with limited public acceptance. Like many other activities of interest to social scientists, engaging in social distancing or any pro-social health behavior confronts strategic considerations that complicate individual behavior. One person’s choice to comply with social distancing influences the costs and benefits to others. As a result, individual behavior depends on higher-order beliefs about others’ compliance as well as social norms regarding compliance. Through a combination of theory and empirics, we explore the strategic considerations that may hamper, or facilitate, compliance with public health guidelines. Our theory extends previous research on two strategic considerations, conformity and free-riding, that influence behavior by incorporating the related phenomenon of publicity, which is found to amplify pro-social behavior only when conformity dominates free-riding.
We sent mailers to approximately 125,000 households in Cook County, Illinois, with guidance from the University of Chicago Medicine's chief epidemiologist Dr. Emily Landon. The guidance was sent in November 2020 in advance of the holiday season. It informed recipients of the risks of travel, that congregating over the holidays posed a substantial health risk. Some of the mailers included supplemental information about what percentage of recipients' neighbors were also receiving the information.
We used two data sources to determine if the mailers had a meaningful impact on individuals' travel over the 2020 holiday. First, anonymized, aggregated cell phone mobility data captured travel outside the home over the period; measures included time spent out of the house, distance travelled, and time spent out of the house. The second data source was an original survey conducted of Cook County residents in early January 2021. This survey was placed to individuals with valid phone numbers as provided by a commercial data vendor. We obtained over 3,300 respondents to the survey.
We aimed to understand 1) whether messages from health experts influenced individuals' behavior during the COVID-19 epidemic, and 2) the extent to which social distancing behavior was subject to strategic considerations and social dynamics.
We estimate that guidance from a credible local health expert had minimal impact on travel during the 2020 holiday season. While some outcome measures suggest that the expert effectively reduced travel or gatherings, the preponderence of evidence points to null effects from the health campaign. Mailer recipients were substantially more likely to remember the public health campaign when it publicized the percentage of the neighborhood sent the messages, which suggests that publicity and social dynamics do have an important role in such campaigns. However, we find no evidence of a role of publicity in mediating messages' influence through strategic considerations.
Last Modified: 10/29/2022
Modified by: Adam P Zelizer
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