| NSF Org: |
CBET Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | January 14, 2020 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | January 14, 2020 |
| Award Number: | 1940781 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Bruce Hamilton
CBET Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems ENG Directorate for Engineering |
| Start Date: | January 15, 2020 |
| End Date: | December 31, 2023 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $298,366.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $298,366.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
660 S MILL AVENUE STE 204 TEMPE AZ US 85281-3670 (480)965-5479 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
Tempe AZ US 85281-3665 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | EnvS-Environmtl Sustainability |
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| Program Reference Code(s): | |
| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.041 |
ABSTRACT
Photovoltaic (PV) systems can have a local air temperature warming effect that can impact their efficiency and may further exacerbate the warming of the local environment. Interactions between PV, land, and the atmosphere is further complicated by climate changes. The potential for widespread PV deployment to act as a reliable source of renewable energy must therefore be evaluated in a modeling framework that can accurately characterize future regional-scale climatic conditions, faithfully represent relevant PV-land-atmosphere interactions, and assess electricity production. This project targets accurate and robust assessment of climatic effects associated with future deployment of PV systems.
The research will couple a PV surface energy balance model that has been developed and extensively evaluated offline by the research team to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) climate prediction system (referred to as WRF-SolarPV). Through a climate-based application of WRF-SolarPV that accounts for spatially explicit PV deployment extent and configuration, the research team will generate maps of PV deployment ?sweet spots? across the Southwestern US, highlighting locations with high levels of sustained solar irradiance that align with suitably low PV module temperatures under a future climate. Specifically, the research will address how future climate may impact the solar resource across the southwestern United States, and what hydro-climatic implications associated with future PV electricity generation can be anticipated. Through an explicit accounting of electricity generation, the research will address key concerns associated with reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and environmental sustainability. The framework to be developed will enable advancements in numerical modeling of energy systems via examination of the regional characteristics of current and future PV-land-atmosphere interactions, including feedbacks among GHG warming, local-hydro-climates, and electricity production in a dynamically interacting system. The research team will develop the open-source state-of-the science tool WRF-SolarPV to be broadly disseminated to the larger climate modeling, engineering and energy communities through the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which supports, maintains and disseminates the WRF system for over 39,000 users in over 160 countries. Development and provision of such a tool is anticipated to be of considerable value to stakeholders considering transition to PV as a renewable source of energy but lacking the assessment tools to do so. The project will also facilitate participation and mentoring of high school students, through an educational collaboration with local public charter schools that have participated in summer intern programs with the research team in the past.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
This project focused on enhancing our understanding of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) arrays and their interaction with the climate. It aimed to evaluate the hydro-climatic impacts of PV expansion and the effects of climate change on PV efficiency, achieving significant milestones with some work continuing into 2024.
Major Objectives and Accomplishments:
Hydro-Climatic Impacts of PV Expansion: We have developed a new model, WRF-PV, to evaluate the current and future impacts of utility-scale PV expansion on local climate variables such as air temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture. This model underwent detailed evaluations against in situ observations at the Red Rock PV utility array, located in south central Arizona between metro-Phoenix and metro-Tucson, covering fundamental aspects including surface energy balance and electricity production. Although the findings indicate areas requiring further research, such as the impacts on wind speed and surface roughness, the model serves as a robust tool for predicting hydroclimatic impacts due to PV installations.
PV Efficiency Under Climate Change: The project has laid the groundwork for exploring how greenhouse gas-induced climate changes affect annual, seasonal, daily and hourly PV electricity production. Future work will highlight areas where PV technology must adapt to changing climates.
Optimizing PV Expansion: Using a data-driven approach, we have developed a model to optimize the development of PV arrays by choosing regions that balance minimizing adverse hydro-climatic effects with maximizing electricity production. These "PV sweet spots" could be identified under various future climate and PV deployment scenarios to predict their long-term viability and environmental impact.
Last Modified: 04/30/2024
Modified by: Ashley M Broadbent
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