Award Abstract # 1920383
CEDAR: Atmospheric Neutral Density Dynamics through Meteor Observations

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: THE LELAND STANFORD JUNIOR UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: June 14, 2019
Latest Amendment Date: June 14, 2019
Award Number: 1920383
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Shikha Raizada
sraizada@nsf.gov
 (703)292-8963
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: June 15, 2019
End Date: May 31, 2023 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $609,557.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $609,557.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2019 = $609,557.00
History of Investigator:
  • Sigrid Elschot (Principal Investigator)
    sigridc@stanford.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Stanford University
450 JANE STANFORD WAY
STANFORD
CA  US  94305-2004
(650)723-2300
Sponsor Congressional District: 16
Primary Place of Performance: Stanford University
Stanford
CA  US  94305-4035
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
16
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): HJD6G4D6TJY5
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): AERONOMY
Primary Program Source: 01001920DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s):
Program Element Code(s): 152100
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

This award is an experimental effort to further develop a new measurement technique for estimating neutral densities by using radar observations of meteor trajectories. As meteoroids enter the Earth's atmosphere, they experience deceleration due to atmospheric drag and form meteors that radar can observe, providing a source of information that can independently determine the neutral density of the atmosphere at altitudes of 80 to 140 km. Measurements of neutral densities in this region are very challenging experimentally and this work will fill this gap by using a novel technique. Knowledge of neutral densities is important since low-Earth-orbit satellites experience atmospheric drag that is strongly dependent on densities. The continued accumulation of data characterizing this meteoroid population would also provide improved risk assessment to spacecraft operators and to ground-based users of satellite data. This work will also provide research topics for new graduate students and results from this work will be incorporated into undergraduate and graduate courses in Aeronautics and Astronautics.

The latitudinal and temporal variation of neutral density in the mesosphere-lower-thermosphere region between 80 and 140 km in altitude will be studied by conducting a simultaneous meteor radar campaign at two geographically distinct radar facilities and applying a novel statistical technique to derive neutral density values from the detected meteor trajectories. These measurements of atmospheric neutral density will be compared against existing atmospheric models to characterize the origins of short time density variations and to assess the extent that they will couple to density enhancements in the upper atmosphere. The resulting measurements of total neutral density will complement measurements of temperature, winds, plasma, and individual metallic species, and provides an alternative source of data to existing neutral density measurements that are sparse or that depend on different physical assumptions.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Blanchard, Jared T. and Lee, Nicolas and Elschot, Sigrid "Meteoroid orbit determination from HPLA radar data" Icarus , v.386 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2022.115144 Citation Details
Hedges, T and Lee, N and Elschot, S "Meteor Head Echo Detection at Multiple HighPower LargeAperture Radar Facilities via a Convolutional Neural Network Trained on Synthetic Radar Data" Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics , v.129 , 2024 https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JA032204 Citation Details
Hedges, T. and Lee, N. and Elschot, S. "Meteor Head Echo Analyses From Concurrent Radar Observations at AMISR Resolute Bay, Jicamarca, and Millstone Hill" Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics , v.127 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JA030709 Citation Details

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

Obtaining measurements of atmospheric density variations in the region encompassing roughly 50 to 120 km altitude has been a challenge to the atmospheric science and space community because of its inaccessibility to balloon-borne or space-based instruments.  Our goal is to study the neutral density in this region by observing meteors passing through the atmosphere using High-Power Large-Aperture (HPLA) radar.  Meteoroids decelerate and ablate due to atmospheric collisions, forming plasma known as meteors.  HPLA facilities routinely detect meteor head echoes, which move with the meteoroid through the atmosphere, at altitudes of 70 to 120 km. These observations can be used to monitor atmospheric density over a large subset of the altitudes that are otherwise difficult to access.  The major outcomes of this project include conducting the first simultaneous meteor radar campaign across geographically distinct HPLA facilities, developing new signal processing techniques to interpret these radar observations, developing simulations to understand the population statistics of the observed meteors, and using these meteors to estimate the atmospheric density.

We made simultaneous observations at Jicamarca Radio Observatory (JRO) in Peru, Millstone Hill Observatory (MHO) in Massachusetts, and Resolute Bay (RISR-N) in the Canadian Arctic, on 2019 October 10 and 11, from 09:00 to 13:00 UTC.  This resulted in 2.7 TB of raw radar returns, which continues to provide research output beyond the lifetime of this project.  To identify meteors within the radar data, we developed a machine learning method using a convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify meteor head echoes, and developed a method to simulate head echo observations providing a larger synthetic training set than is possible through manual tagging of real data.  Our CNN architecture accepts raw radar data as input, which enables computationally inexpensive classification of each data segment. The CNNs demonstrate greater than 0.7 overall sensitivity to head echoes at each facility. Sensitivity is significantly higher for stronger head echoes, as one would expect, whereas for the weaker head echoes, it remains above 0.5 across all facilities. The precision drops when cluttering phenomena are present, increasing the occurrence of false positives, but sensitivity remains greater than 0.5.

We applied a signal processing technique to the radar data based on matching the radiofrequency phase of the radar pulses to yield accurate range rates and decelerations for a subset of the meteor populations observed at each facility.  JRO is overall most sensitive to meteor head echoes because of its lower carrier frequency. MHO observes more meteors than RISR-N at the same frequency, indicating that the latitude and beam angle relative to the ecliptic plane is a significant factor in meteor detectability.  From our meteor data, we find that RISR-N does not observe head echoes with range rates faster than 55 km/s, likely due to its high latitude and radar beam pointing away from the ecliptic plane. The RISR-N population also demonstrates a bias toward larger and faster head echoes due to its higher carrier frequency. At JRO near the equator, a larger spread of range rates is observed. A trend of greater decelerations at lower altitudes is observed at RISR-N and JRO.

To map the detected meteors back to their parent meteoroid populations, we developed two simulation tools.  We implemented an ablation model to track the meteoroid’s mass loss through the upper atmosphere prior to radar detection, and an orbital force model to back-propagate the trajectory through the solar system.  Through ablation modeling, we find that small meteoroids (nanogram to microgram) can lose half of their initial mass above 100 km altitude.  This altitude dependence indicates that while nearly all meteoroidal mass deposited at 75 km altitude comes from larger meteoroids, the dominant mass deposition at 100 km and above is from the smaller population.  We developed a new open-source software for determining the heliocentric orbital parameters of meteoroids based on their meteor head echoes.  We use numerical integration, which outperforms analytical approximations and allows us to take perturbative effects into account.  We included solar radiation pressure due to its greater influence on very small particles but showed that it is small compared to drag and third-body perturbations of the Moon and planets.  We compute the uncertainty of the orbital elements using the covariance transform method, which runs faster than Monte Carlo simulations.

Given the detected meteor dataset, we applied the atmospheric density estimation to 1151 meteors (311 at JRO, 410 at MHO, and 430 at RISR-N).  These meteors provide good sampling in the mid-range altitudes of 90-110 km, where most of them are detected, while the estimates outside of this altitude range have high error.  These density profiles show a generally similar trend to MSIS00 but infer some spatial density variation beyond the model output.  The confidence of this meteor-derived density estimation can be increased in future work with continued enhancement in radar sensitivity, signal processing, and modeling techniques.


Last Modified: 11/26/2023
Modified by: Sigrid Elschot

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