| NSF Org: |
OIA OIA-Office of Integrative Activities |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | August 20, 2018 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | October 7, 2022 |
| Award Number: | 1832959 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Jose Colom
jcolom@nsf.gov (703)292-7088 OIA OIA-Office of Integrative Activities O/D Office Of The Director |
| Start Date: | October 1, 2018 |
| End Date: | March 31, 2023 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $147,292.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $147,292.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
51 COLLEGE RD DURHAM NH US 03824-2620 (603)862-2172 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder CO US 80305-5602 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | EPSCoR Research Infrastructure |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.083 |
ABSTRACT
Nontechnical Description
Across most of the contiguous United States, winter is warming faster than summer, and the warming is more pronounced in seasonally snow-covered regions. Accompanying the winter warming trends are fewer days with snow cover, reductions in snow water equivalent, an increased proportion of winter precipitation falling as rain instead of snow, and more frequent mid-winter thaw events. The rapid pace of winter climate change is hypothesized to have large impacts on the natural functioning of ecosystems and corresponding ecosystem services. The vision of the proposed project is to directly address the need for high-resolution, comprehensive historical and future climate model simulations to investigate future winter climate under higher and lower emissions scenarios across the United States. The PI will collaborate with scientists at the National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, a premier, internationally recognized center for climate modeling. The project outcomes will provide high quality, foundational climate model simulations to advance understanding of winter climate impacts on ecosystem services, engage external partners in the winter tourism industry, and support competitive research at the University of New Hampshire, including in the areas of crop and hydrological modeling.
Technical Description
The central hypothesis of this project is that changes in winter climate will have profound impacts on a suite of ecosystem services across the contiguous United States as climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. The proposed project will directly address this hypothesis through a next-generation climate modeling effort to investigate future winter climate under a range of shared socioeconomic pathways across the United States. The foundational high-resolution dataset with the Variable Resolution Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) will add value to future projections of winter snow conditions in the United States at a fraction of computational cost of uniform high-resolution global simulations. In addition, they will permit detailed investigation of the influence of major teleconnections on future snow projections over complex topography in future projects. The proposed work will support competitive research at the University of New Hampshire, including agricultural, hydrological and infrastructure modeling efforts. Results will be shared with three key audiences: K-12 classrooms, institutes of higher education, and the stakeholders in the winter tourism industry. The project complements ongoing outreach efforts through community engagement with the winter sports community and a citizen science snow measurement network. The work will be broadly disseminated through public and school presentations, in addition to traditional channels at academic workshops and meetings.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
The goals of this project were to provide high quality, foundational climate model simulations to advance understanding of winter climate impacts on ecosystem services, engage external partners in the winter tourism industry, and support competitive research on agriculture and hydrological modeling. Major outcomes of the project include several peer-reviewed publications related to winter climate change in the northeastern United States.
In one publication, we documented historical and future indicators of winter climate related broadly to ecosystems and winter recreation using lower and higher climate scenarios. The results indicate a strong potential for preserving present-day winter conditions if a lower greenhouse gas emissions scenario is followed. Under a higher emissions scenario, a large portion of the region loses snow cover and will experience above-freezing temperatures on a more frequent basis. The findings have profound implications for ecosystems and society and have been shared with a variety of stakeholders.
In a Carsey School of Public Policy report, we surveyed New Hampshire residents on whether they believed winters were warming and found that fewer than half of survey respondents recognize the warming trend. Results from two statewide surveys also found no significant differences by age, education, or winter sports participation. Instead, perceptions of this winter trend depend on political identity: conservatives are much less likely than other groups to recognize that warming has occurred.
In collaboration with the American Alpine Club, we surveyed and interviewed members of the New Hampshire ice climbing community to examine their lived experience of warming winters and the impacts it has on the guiding community. This was combined with analysis of local climate records in the Mount Washington Valley and a unique photo archive of a popular climbing route to develop of model of future ice climbing conditions under lower and higher climate warming. In addition to the peer-reviewed publication, this study was also documented in a publicly available film called Freeze//Thaw (2023) and a finalist for the International Climbing and Mountaineering Federation (UIAA) Mountain Protection Award.
Major results and findings were communicated to a wide range of audiences in public seminars, panel discussions, talks, K-12 school visits, radio and television interviews, and three film documentaries. We engaged with a wide range of external partners in the winter tourism industry, such as gear manufacturers, industry trade groups, professional athletes, and non-profit climate advocacy organizations. We also had several opportunities to share major findings with the New Hampshire congressional delegation and advocate for improved automated snow monitoring in the northeastern United States.
Last Modified: 10/17/2023
Modified by: Elizabeth A Burakowski
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