NSF Org:	SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences
Recipient:	CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date:	January 17, 2018
Latest Amendment Date:	January 17, 2018
Award Number:	1811883
Award Instrument:	Standard Grant
Program Manager:	Robert O'Connor roconnor@nsf.gov  (703)292-7263 SES  Division of Social and Economic Sciences SBE  Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Start Date:	January 15, 2018
End Date:	December 31, 2019 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount:	$160,171.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date:	$160,171.00
Funds Obligated to Date:	FY 2018 = $160,171.00
History of Investigator:	Gabrielle Wong-Parodi (Principal Investigator) gwongpar@stanford.edu Roxane Silver (Co-Principal Investigator) Joshua Wurman (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office:	Carnegie-Mellon University 5000 FORBES AVE PITTSBURGH PA  US  15213-3815 (412)268-8746
Sponsor Congressional District:	12
Primary Place of Performance:	Carnegie Mellon University 5000 Forbes Avenue Pittsburgh PA  US  15213-3818
Primary Place of Performance Congressional District:
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI):	U3NKNFLNQ613
Parent UEI:	U3NKNFLNQ613
NSF Program(s):	Hurricane Irma 2017
Primary Program Source:	01001819DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s):	4444, 1525, 1332, 1321, 7914
Program Element Code(s):	074Y00
Award Agency Code:	4900
Fund Agency Code:	4900
Assistance Listing Number(s):	47.075

ABSTRACT

Hurricanes rank among the most damaging natural hazards affecting the United States, the worst of which (e.g. Galveston 1900, Andrew 1992, Katrina 2005) caused some of the highest U.S. death tolls and insured dollar losses of any natural disaster. Given estimates of $83 billion in economic losses, Hurricane Irma will likely join this list. Hurricanes threaten the sustainability of entire communities: recovery is often slow or incomplete, residents may be permanently displaced, and physical destruction may cause long-term economic hardship. Human losses, including mental and physical health outcomes, may be affected by structural damage to the community and by individual- and community-level choices made before, during and after the hurricane reaches land. Yet many deleterious consequences of hurricanes may be mitigated through more effective and appropriately targeted evacuation efforts, improved decision making, and building codes/practices. Prior research suggests that human responses to hurricanes are influenced by variability in storm exposure, demographics, prior evacuation behavior, and type and perceived trustworthiness of disaster messaging. Moreover, real-time perceptions of risk may be related to actual wind and storm surge conditions and ongoing evolving damage to infrastructure, as well as to how these events are communicated. The investigators in this project have been at the forefront of developing and maintaining a sample (with prior NSF support) of Florida residents, including both pre- and post-Irma mental, physical, psychological and behavioral responses. This project examines how physical indicators of the storm and media exposure interact and influence those responses. To facilitate future mitigation efforts in places vulnerable to hurricanes and other hazards, gaining an integrated understanding of the physical nature of, and human responses to, these devastating storms is critical.

In this project, an interdisciplinary team of investigators leverages a recent NSF RAPID-funded survey of a representative sample of Florida residents in the 3 days before Hurricane Irma made landfall across the State of Florida and again a few weeks after the storm passed. The team examines the role played by the physical parameters of the storm (wind, surge, damage) and media communications in understanding psychological and behavioral responses to the hurricane. The investigators collect relevant time-stamped physical and media data in places where the sample resided in the days leading up to and after Hurricane Irma made landfall. The researchers explore three questions: 1) What are the effects of spatially- and temporally-varying winds and surge that result in varying and evolving damage on the evolving perception and decisions made by people affected by these physical inputs? 2) What proportion of individual variability in pre-storm risk perceptions, decisions, and distress levels are accounted for by these physical inputs compared to respondents' personal histories, exposure to previous risks, exposure to evolving media communications, and other non-meteorological, non-damage factors? and, 3) To what extent is variability in the post-hurricane response a function of the decision to evacuate, exposure to evolving media communications, or other psychosocial variables, as compared to physical parameters of the storm? Results will inform decision making about the allocation of resources for disaster preparation, mobilization, and recovery, as well as provide emergency managers and other officials with insight into how to improve responses to future severe weather events. The integration of physical parameters, media, and human response data leads to increased sustainability of at-risk communities, while also informing theories and policies relevant to other natural disasters.

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

Hurricanes are among the most damaging natural hazards affecting the United States. Many deleterious consequences of hurricanes can be mitigated through more effective and appropriately targeted evacuation efforts, improved decision making, and enhanced building codes/practices. To facilitate mitigation efforts, it is imperative to gain an integrated understanding of the physical nature of, and human responses to, these devastating storms.

In this project, an interdisciplinary team of investigators has leveraged NSF RAPID-funded surveys (NSF RAPID award #1760764, Silver, PI, and #1902925, Silver, PI) of representative samples of Texas and Florida residents in the 3 days before Hurricane Irma made landfall (Texas n=1,137 and Florida n=1,637), again a few weeks after the storm passed (Texas n=1,023 and Florida n=1,515), and approximately one year later (Texas n=766 and Florida n=1,113). Surveys of a representative sample of New York metropolitan area residents were also conducted a few weeks after the storm passed (n=544) and approximately one year later (n=364). The team has examined the role played by the physical parameters of the storms (wind, surge, damage) and media communications in seeking to understand psychological and behavioral responses to the hurricanes. The investigators collected relevant time-stamped physical (wind, surge, damage, flooding, precipitation, air temperature) and media data in places where the sample resided in the days leading up to and after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma made landfall, as well as climate-related data (number, duration, damage, injuries, deaths) for storm events (e.g., flash floods, tornadoes, hail, droughts) and average precipitation (and precipitation anomalies) annually from 2014 to 2019.

Early findings from this project suggest:

• Repeated exposure to severe weather-related deaths and recent adversity are associated with increased incidence of new onset cardiovascular ailments. Results highlight a link between severe weather and a key metric of human health, a potential public health concern given increasing climate-related threats.
• Objective and media-based exposure to an extreme weather event predicts patterns of climate-related attribution beliefs.
• Persistent and lingering impacts of extreme weather are associated with mental health outcomes, potentially impairing the ability to adapt and be resilient to future change. 

This project has presented an unprecedented opportunity to document how environmental parameters of storms and exposure to media affect behavioral and health responses over time. Results from this project can help inform the design of more effective risk communications, as well as pre- and post-disaster relief services. Examples include considering post-disaster as a possible inflection point to convey information about the future risk of severe weather events, and ways to prepare; consideration of mitigation measures such as managed retreat that involve moving people and things out of the path of a storm; passing and enforcing more stringent building codes; and providing mental health services as part of federal disaster relief.

 

Last Modified: 05/01/2020
Modified by: Roxane C Silver

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