| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | November 8, 2017 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | November 8, 2017 |
| Award Number: | 1807774 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Chungu Lu
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | November 15, 2017 |
| End Date: | October 31, 2020 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $121,906.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $121,906.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
210 N 4TH ST FL 4 SAN JOSE CA US 95112-5569 (408)924-1400 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
One Washington Square San Jose CA US 95112-5569 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Physical & Dynamic Meteorology |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
This RAPID project represents an ambitious effort to advance our understanding of Diablo wind dynamics and their impact on extreme fire behavior during the 2017 wine country fires by collecting field observations to help guide WRF-SFIRE modeling of the events. The key outcomes from this project are:
(1) an enhanced climatological analysis to include sites near the wine country fires and including a pressure gradient criteria to climatological analyses,
(2) a synoptic and satellite analysis of event evolution to determine large-scale forcing on fire spread,
(3) high-resolution WRF modeling of Tubbs Fire event that led to the destruction of the Coffey Park neighborhood,
(4) WRF-SFIRE simulations including a reconstruction of fire-front positions for the Tubbs Fire,
(5) a test of firebrand transport modeling to emulate ember showers in extreme wind-driven wildfires, and
(6) the development of a 1-day Diablo Wind Workshop conducted at SJSU with major stakeholders invited.
Intellectual Merit:
The RAPID project will potentially transform wildfire research by developing a first climatology of Diablo wind events and linking synoptic patterns to variations in the climatological wind characteristics. This will lead to a better understanding of how these winds can be forecasted during critical fire weather conditions. In addition, a reconstruction of the associated fire behavior patterns from the Tubbs Fire that destroyed nearly 5700 homes will lead to better understanding of how near-surface ember transport can result in rapid fire spread.
Broader Impacts:
The expected broader impacts of the RAPID project include:
- a greater understanding of critical fire weather conditions and fire behavior associated with Diablo wind events,
- improved climatology and understanding of event frequency, and
- the development of a Diablo wind workshop for stakeholders / fire managers to disseminate results from the 1-year study.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Diablo wind events are offshore, dry, northeast winds greater than 13 mph that occur in San Francisco Bay Area of Northern California. These winds are driven by a surface pressure gradient that forms in response to an inverted pressure trough that develops over California. The mean annual frequency of Diablo wind events was 2.5 and the highest monthly frequency occurred in October when live fuel moistures are at a minimum leading to the most critical fire danger conditions of the season.
Offshore, downslope windstorms that occur in the northern Sierra Nevada are called North Winds and can cause extreme fire behavior due to their high wind speeds and extremely dry air. The 2018 Camp Fire was one of the most devastating fires in California history and was associated with record dry fuel moistures and the onset of a downslope windstorm caused by a deepening shortwave trough that produced strong flow perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada crest. Winds were sampled using a Doppler wind lidar deployed to Paradise, CA on 8 November 2018. The vertical wind profiles during the event indicated that an intermittent low-level jet formed above the surface that spread embers resulting in numerous spot fires that led to the observed extreme rate of fire spread.
Last Modified: 03/01/2021
Modified by: Craig B Clements
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