NSF Org:	EAR Division Of Earth Sciences
Recipient:	WOODS HOLE OCEANOGRAPHIC INSTITUTION
Initial Amendment Date:	May 8, 2018
Latest Amendment Date:	May 8, 2018
Award Number:	1803056
Award Instrument:	Standard Grant
Program Manager:	Jonathan G Wynn jwynn@nsf.gov  (703)292-4725 EAR  Division Of Earth Sciences GEO  Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date:	June 1, 2018
End Date:	May 31, 2021 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount:	$243,861.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date:	$243,861.00
Funds Obligated to Date:	FY 2018 = $243,861.00
History of Investigator:	Jeffrey Donnelly (Principal Investigator) jdonnelly@whoi.edu Liviu Giosan (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office:	Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 266 WOODS HOLE RD WOODS HOLE MA  US  02543-1535 (508)289-3542
Sponsor Congressional District:	09
Primary Place of Performance:	Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 266 Woods Hole Rd Woods Hole MA  US  02543-1535
Primary Place of Performance Congressional District:	09
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI):	GFKFBWG2TV98
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s):	GLOBAL CHANGE
Primary Program Source:	01001819DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s):
Program Element Code(s):	157700
Award Agency Code:	4900
Fund Agency Code:	4900
Assistance Listing Number(s):	47.050

ABSTRACT

The Mississippi River plays a fundamental role in the economy of the United States, and flooding along its course is costly in both economic and social terms. Historic flooding of the lower Mississippi in 2011 caused over $3 billion in agricultural losses and damage to infrastructure, with additional losses to flooding occurring again in 2016 and 2018. Seasonal and longer-term predictions of flooding along the Mississippi and its major tributaries remain a major challenge because the effects of climate variability, greenhouse forcing, and human modifications of the river are difficult to disentangle using short records from gauging stations that span less than 150 years. This project will develop records describing the timing and magnitude of flooding across the Mississippi River basin over the last millennium, and use these records to understand the influence of climate variability on flood activity. This work will improve predictions of flooding along the Mississippi River, a hazard that affects millions of people. The findings will be useful for planned and ongoing efforts to slow coastal land loss in the Mississippi River delta. The project will engage students at three institutions in research, and its findings will be disseminated to the public through an exhibit at the Mississippi River Museum and Aquarium.


The goal of this project is to reconstruct the frequency and magnitude of overbank floods along the lower Mississippi River and its major tributaries over the last millennium using the sedimentary archives preserved in oxbow lakes. Our ability to create this novel hydrological record is due to recent developments in paleoflood hydrology that demonstrate the unique ability of floodplain lake sediments to record individual flood events and their associated magnitude. Once developed, our reconstructions will be used to characterize decadal- to centennial-scale variability of flood activity, to compare with simulated discharge extremes in climate model ensembles, and to identify the regional and hemispheric circulation patterns associated with increased likelihoods of extreme floods on the lower Mississippi River and its major tributaries.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

River flow is sensitive to changes in climate, but it is unclear how flow on the lower Mississippi River will change over the next century in response to regional warming. The lower Mississippi River is economically important, so it is critical to understand how it may change for infrastructure planning and water resources management. Here, we use river properties from historical maps and output from a global climate model to estimate how flow of the lower Mississippi River changed over the last 1,500 years, including through a period of moderate warming ∼1,000 years ago. Our reconstruction shows that the relatively warm Medieval era (ca. 1000–1200 CE) was a time of reduced discharge on the lower Mississippi River, mostly due to increased evapotranspiration. These findings imply that the lower Mississippi River's flows will decrease under a moderate warming scenario.

The Mississippi River basin is an economically vital region for industry and agriculture, but it is prone to disruptive flooding and drought. In this project we also use organic molecules preserved in a lake sediment core to reconstruct the temperature and seasonal moisture patterns of the last 1,800 years. Our reconstruction shows that the Medieval period (ca. CE 1000–1,600) was relatively warm and that warmer temperatures in this region are associated with increased frequencies of severe droughts and floods. These findings generally support climate model projections of increasing drought and flood hazard in the Mississippi River basin as a result of anthropogenic climate change.

Last Modified: 12/09/2021
Modified by: Jeffrey Donnelly

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