In this research project, we studied how new investments in rail transit impact who moves into and out of nearby neighborhoods, or, residential sorting patterns, and how these changes contribute to broader patterns of income segregation across cities. We used a mixed, qualitative and quantitative research design to examine this topic from multiple spatial scales - from the perspective of residents of neighborhoods close to a newly opened transit station in Charlotte, North Carolina to a nation-wide, longitudinal study on broader trends. Using a national, longitudinal dataset on residential moves from 1970-2014 (The Panel Study on Income Dynamics), we first questioned whether lower-income residents were more likely to move out of their neighborhood following the nearby placement of a new transit station, compared to other residents. Our analysis found no significant evidence that living near a new station had any impact on the probability of a low-income resident relocating, based on our data. Using the same dataset, we then investigated where lower-income residents who did move, relocated to. We were specifically interested in whether being located near a new transit station increased one's odds of moving to a neighborhood of higher or lower socioeconomic status. We found that middle and higher-income homeowners had a greater chance of moving to a neighborhood of a higher socioeconomic status, just prior to the opening of the station potentially capitalizing on rising home values. However, this was not the case for lower-income homeowners and renters. Therefore, found some evidence that the new transit stations may shape where residents move to in a way that may serve to further income segregation patterns. 

            Our third research objective took an in-depth, qualitative approach towards understanding the motivating factors that drive relocation decisions into and out of transit neighborhoods as well as residents' perceptions of a new transit line's impact on their neighborhood. We used a case study of a newly opened light rail line in Charlotte, North Carolina and performed surveys, interviews, and focus groups with residents and other local stakeholders. The results from these analyses varied geographically along the rail line. In neighborhoods close to the city center, more dramatic changes were perceived with an influx of new, higher-end developments catered towards young professionals moving into the city from elsewhere. These were accompanied by other amenities cited as typical signs of gentrification such as breweries, gyms, coffee shops. A sentiment was expressed that the residents to whom these new housing developments were marketed to were not reliant on public transit as they all also included garages. Notably, these developments were transforming previously industrial and undeveloped land, but nonetheless contributed to a changing sense of place, and in neighborhoods close to the center city, tear-downs, dramatic renovations, and steep increases in older single-family homes were also noted. Further along the line in more suburban, and largely African American neighborhoods, residents were more fearful that the new rail line would bring about dramatic changes and cause displacement, but there was not widespread discussion that such changes had been realized. The feelings tended to reflect long-standing distrust in a rapidly growing city that these new developments were not aimed at helping older, minority residents. Along the entire rail line, more residents who participated in our survey viewed the investment favorably, but this was more-so the case for residents who had lived in their neighborhood for a shorter amount of time.

            Finally, our fourth research question returned to a multi-city scale and examined the impacts of rail transit investments on neighborhood income diversity and metropolitan segregation. This connects our residential mobility modeling efforts with aggregate outcomes at the neighborhood and metropolitan level. We studied 11 cities that invested in transit between 2000 and 2005 and found no significant impact of these new lines in spurring changes in neighborhood income diversity or in metropolitan wide income segregation. 

            In all, the various components of our research paint a nuanced portrait of the transit-induced gentrification and displacement hypothesis. We find that widespread impacts are challenging to quantitatively capture given the heterogeneity of impacts across the local urban geographies that a transit line or system intersects. Our qualitative work found the most profound visible impacts in neighborhoods most prime for gentrification - close to the urban core and alongside other desirable amenities. In these places, new developments on previously vacant or industrial land cater towards a young, professional, newer population. In more established, suburban, minority neighborhoods away from the city center, changes were anticipated by residents, but not experienced immediately. 

            In terms of the broader impacts of our research, we included multiple stakeholders and decision makers into our qualitative research design, have shared results of our research with local and national news agencies, and have held several presentations with the Charlotte planning department to discuss our findings and their implications for future transit plans. 

Last Modified: 09/21/2021
Modified by: Elizabeth Delmelle