Award Abstract # 1737788
Collaborative Research: Climate, human and ecosystem interactions in the face of a rapidly changing North Asian biome

NSF Org: OPP
Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
Recipient: THE TRUSTEES OF COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY IN THE CITY OF NEW YORK
Initial Amendment Date: August 18, 2017
Latest Amendment Date: August 8, 2021
Award Number: 1737788
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Liam Frink
lfrink@nsf.gov
 (703)292-0000
OPP
 Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: September 1, 2017
End Date: August 31, 2024 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $459,475.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $459,475.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2017 = $54,352.00
FY 2018 = $191,087.00

FY 2019 = $119,555.00

FY 2020 = $60,645.00

FY 2021 = $33,836.00
History of Investigator:
  • Nicole Davi (Principal Investigator)
    Davin@wpunj.edu
  • Laia Andreu-Hayles (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Columbia University
615 W 131ST ST
NEW YORK
NY  US  10027-7922
(212)854-6851
Sponsor Congressional District: 13
Primary Place of Performance: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
61 Rt. 9W
Palisades
NY  US  10964-1000
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
17
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): F4N1QNPB95M4
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): ASSP-Arctic Social Science
Primary Program Source: 0100XXXXDB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 1079, 5221
Program Element Code(s): 522100
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.078

ABSTRACT

In many parts of the globe environmental change and socio-economic conditions are increasingly tied together producing regional vulnerabilities that are still poorly understood and under-anticipated. Northern Asia, and particularly the subarctic zone of southern Siberia and northern Mongolia, has experienced rates of warming that are so far unprecedented elsewhere and provide an opportunity for the early study of human and environmental impacts due to global warming. A Mongolian-American collaborative research team will investigate the three way relationship between pastoral nomadic food production, environmental robustness, and climate fluctuation in order to better understand principles of human organization that serve to sustainably manage this complex relationship. Pastoral nomadism is an indigenous Arctic and subarctic subsistence economy that sustains numerous populations from Mongolia to the Arctic Ocean and is known for its flexibility, stewardship of rangelands, and productive success within small-scale societies as well as nation states. By comparing early historical pastoralism and its socio-economic organization to environmental conditions and climate variation over more than a millennium, this project provides a deep-time perspective on sustainable and unsustainable practices in use today under a changing climate regime. This research aims to promote successful adaptation to environmental change on behalf of a broad spectrum of communities and lifeways and across national borders. The researchers believe that this research will help to sustain systems of indigenous food production throughout northernmost Asia with emphasis placed on maintaining local environments. The results have broader applicability to other pastoral nomadic regions of the world, most notably the African continent in terms of environmental and land use policy making. The project strengthens interdisciplinary collaboration and provides hands-on training for U.S. and Mongolian junior scholars, undergraduates, and graduate students in climatic bio-social science and cross-disciplinary research integration.

The project framework relies on a combination of high-resolution historical and environmental data that will be analyzed as time series and compared across two time scales: a short sequence of 25 years (1990 to present) and a long-sequence of 1300 years (700 AD to present). Data from the past quarter-century will comprise 1) trends in forest productivity as revealed by the tree-ring record; 2) trends in steppe productivity; 3) ethnohistorical and ethnographic evidence of human use of these ecosystems in relation to recent socio-economic change; and 4) livestock population and mortality data. Contemporary patterns will be contextualized by more than one thousand years of climatic and socio-cultural observations. These will be compiled from tree-ring analysis, lake core and palynological studies, and from archaeological research, all of which provide alternate environmental indicators as well as a record of the relationship between nomadic pastoralists and the northern forest ecosystem. By juxtaposing the trajectory of the forest-steppe and human communities over time, this research develops new approaches and insight to the linkages between ecosystems, climate, human culture, and policy that promote long-term sustainability. Data and results will be widely disseminated through publications and public outreach but principally will be shared with and developed for the indigenous communities that rely on pastoralism across the Asian Arctic and subarctic biomes.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Davi, Nicole and Pringle, Patrick and Fiondella, Francesco and Lockwood, Jeff and Oelkers, Rose "Online labs to introduce undergraduate students to scientific concepts and practices in tree-ring research" Journal of Geoscience Education , v.70 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.1080/10899995.2021.1927567 Citation Details
Rao, Mukund Palat and Davi, Nicole K and Magney, Troy S and Andreu-Hayles, Laia and Nachin, Baatarbileg and Suran, Byambagerel and Varuolo-Clarke, Arianna M and Cook, Benjamin I and DArrigo, Rosanne D and Pederson, Neil and Odrentsen, Lkhagvajargal and R "Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin" Communications Earth & Environment , v.4 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00910-6 Citation Details
Leland, Caroline and Cook, Edward R. and Andreu-Hayles, Laia and Pederson, Neil and Hessl, Amy and Anchukaitis, Kevin J. and Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa and Nachin, Baatarbileg and Davi, Nicole and D'Arrigo, Rosanne and Griffin, Kevin and Bishop, Daniel A. and "Strip-Bark Morphology and Radial Growth Trends in Ancient Pinus sibirica Trees From Central Mongolia" Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences , v.123 , 2018 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JG004196 Citation Details
Leland, Caroline and Andreu-Hayles, Laia and Cook, Edward R and Anchukaitis, Kevin J and Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa and Davi, Nicole and Hessl, Amy and Martin-Benito, Dario and Nachin, Baatarbileg and Pederson, Neil "Impacts of climate and tree morphology on tree-ring stable isotopes in central Mongolia" Tree Physiology , v.43 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/tpac142 Citation Details
Davi, N. K. and Rao, M. P. and Wilson, R. and AndreuHayles, L. and Oelkers, R. and D'Arrigo, R. and Nachin, B. and Buckley, B. and Pederson, N. and Leland, C. and Suran, B. "Accelerated Recent Warming and Temperature Variability Over the Past Eight Centuries in the Central Asian Altai From Blue Intensity in Tree Rings" Geophysical Research Letters , v.48 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL092933 Citation Details

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

This NSF-funded research investigated the interactions between climate, ecosystems, and human communities in Mongolia over the past 1300 years. This outcomes of this research provided new insights into long-term climate variability and its impacts on forests and societies. A key outcome was the development of a high-resolution climate reconstructions for Mongolia using tree rings and innovative Blue Intensity methods. These findings revealed unprecedented warming trends since the 1990s, exceeding natural climate variability observed over the last eight centuries (Davi et al. 2021). Field studies further assessed the heat and drought tolerance of key tree species, such as Larix sibirica, showing that boreal forests at their southern margins are increasingly vulnerable to rising temperatures (Rao et al. 2023). 

The project’s impact included numerous collaborative studies co-authored with international researchers, which explored broader themes related to climate, ecosystems, and human history. These papers examined topics such as the role of drought in historical events, forest resilience in dry environments, and the effects of climatic extremes on regional landscapes. Through these efforts, the project contributed to a better understanding of climate dynamics in Central and East Asia, emphasizing the importance of environmental changes in Mongolia within a broader context.

The project also contributed significantly to education and capacity building. Graduate and undergraduate students received training in climate science, fieldwork, and dendrochronology, and it supported a PhD student. Data and field sites from this project are used in  Tree-Ring Expeditions (TREX)—a series of open-access online labs designed to engage students in climate research using real-world tree-ring data. International collaboration with the National University of Mongolia supported fieldwork, data analysis, and knowledge exchange, strengthening research ties and expertise.

Beyond scientific contributions, the project emphasized public outreach and accessibility. Results were shared through open-access publications, educational tools, public talks, and interdisciplinary collaborations, including an art-science exhibit in Mongolia and the U.S. Results were also shared at scientific conferences. The datasets and findings generated as part of this project are publicly available, providing resources for understanding past climate extremes, forest resilience, and ongoing environmental changes in Central Asia.

 


Last Modified: 01/06/2025
Modified by: Nicole K Davi

Addendum # 1

The Tarvagatai Valley Project seeks to understand the combination of productive systems, climate, and political organization by studying a lifestyle that has proven highly resilient and sustainable over thousands of years. That way of living is pastoralism which involves herding and pasturing animal usually with an investment in periodic mobility or nomadism. This way of life can be found on every continent: From the American West to South Africa to the Arctic Circle and it has been practiced by human communities for millennia. Because mobile herding communities have developed traditions, knowledge, and systems of organization that readily adapt to changing environments while preserving the sustaining resources available in these environments, such communities are good examples to study in order to develop ideas for how to address and adapt to global climate change. Our research has focused on one of the best known pastoralist societies in the world – that of Mongolian nomads. Not only has Mongolian nomadic pastoralism proven to be a successful adaptation for 5000 years, it has formed the productive and organizational foundations for some of the largest empires ever built. The herding lifestyle is adaptable to changing environments, but it also adapts to large-scale human organizational systems like states and empires.

How nomadic communities manage this adaptation process, especially when environmental and political changes co-occur, would be useful information for us to understand - not only for the nation of Mongolia but for many parts of the globe in which pastoralists and ranchers are primary producers. We are particularly interested in learning about these adaptations to address declines in traditional pastoralism in northern latitudes ranging from forested grasslands, to the boreal forests, to northern tundra. These regions are particularly susceptible to rapid climate warming and changing resource environments and our study is intended to provide historical, archaeological, and climatic analysis to better understand how northern populations might best adapt to these transformations - especially with respect to traditional subsistence practices. Our research proposes new models for the coupling of productive systems, climate, and human organization by analyzing and cross-comparing four different records, over 1200 years, assembled from a forest-steppe valley in northern Mongolia (Tarvagatai valley). This valley has supported mobile pastoralism in varying forms for at least 4000 years and experienced dramatic shifts in climate, local environment, and political contexts due to its integration into several Mongolian states and empires. Our focus begins in 800 AD during the late Turkic Empire and continues through the period of the Mongolian Empire, the Manchu Empire, and the rise of the Soviet Union’s influence in Mongolia. The four records we have developed to compare through this research include: Archaeology, history and ethnography; lake-core sequences for long-term climate change, and tree-ring coring for high resolution climate change. By cross-sequencing these fours records of local human and environmental changes we are able to better understand why and how community adaptations were sustainable and how pastoral and other forms of production were managed within changing political settings.

 Using archaeological survey methods, our project documented a landscape of 92 km2 with a total of 123 habitation sites and 241 burials, stone monuments, ceremonial areas, and stele stones. Our most important discovery and excavation project has been a large settlement of pit-houses occupied during the Mongolian Empire where pastoralism, the farming of wheat and barley, and expert iron and bronze metallurgy was carried out. In addition to our archaeological accomplishments, we documented the past 300 years of production, organization, religion, and taxation in the Tarvagatai valley using archival documents. Together with ethnographic observations from today’s nomadic households living in the valley with their herds of sheep, goat, cow and horse, our work has assembled a human timeline of activity from 800 AD to the present. Our lake coring project has produced a sequence of climatic change form 11,500 years ago up to the present and our tree ring project has produced a collection of 30+ tree-ring cores. This research has so far contributed to two book publications, over 20 articles, 10 field reports, one MA thesis, one doctoral dissertation and two more doctoral dissertations due in 2026. 

 The project is built upon close research collaboration between a number of US and international scholars all of whom bring students and volunteers having a wide range of ages and backgrounds to Mongolia. All participants received exposure to anthropology-based research and STEM applications for fieldwork and for most of these young participants, this was their first experience doiing international scientific fieldwork. Our project has trained American graduate students, undergraduates, and two US high school students. Our Mongolian collaborators likewise invited their undergraduate and graduate students to work with our American team. This international mix and diverse backgrounds of our participants became a major component of the cross-cultural education that became a standard part of our fieldwork.


Added: 03/27/2025
Submitted by: Nicole K Davi

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