
NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
Recipient: |
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Initial Amendment Date: | August 24, 2017 |
Latest Amendment Date: | August 24, 2017 |
Award Number: | 1734164 |
Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
Program Manager: |
Eric DeWeaver
edeweave@nsf.gov (703)292-8527 AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
Start Date: | September 1, 2017 |
End Date: | August 31, 2021 (Estimated) |
Total Intended Award Amount: | $261,093.00 |
Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $261,093.00 |
Funds Obligated to Date: |
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History of Investigator: |
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Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
160 ALDRICH HALL IRVINE CA US 92697-0001 (949)824-7295 |
Sponsor Congressional District: |
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Primary Place of Performance: |
Croul Hall Irvine CA US 92697-3100 |
Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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Parent UEI: |
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NSF Program(s): | Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics |
Primary Program Source: |
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Program Reference Code(s): | |
Program Element Code(s): |
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Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
The land surface interacts strongly with the atmosphere above it, as the atmosphere supplies water to the surface in the form of rain and energy, including sunlight and downwelling infrared radiation. The land in turn affects the atmosphere by providing water vapor through evaporation and transpiration, giving off sensible heat and upwelling infrared radiation, and blocking the wind with trees and other obstacles, among other effects. Land-atmosphere interactions are thus an important topic in climate science, and a key goal research in this area is to understand the feedback mechanisms through which land-surface processes influence the atmosphere in ways that produce further effects on the land and vice versa. Much of the work in this area is focused on precipitation and soil moisture, particularly the extent to which evaporation serves as a source for later precipitation which further controls the amount and distribution of soil moisture.
Here the PIs go beyond soil moisture-precipitation feedback to consider mechanisms that link land surface characteristics to cloudiness and the subsequent shading effect of cloud cover on the surface. One of these is a feedback in which sunlight falling on moist soil produces evaporation, which leads to the formation of clouds or fog, which shades the soil and limits further evaporation. Previous work by the PIs suggests that this negative feedback mechanism plays an important role in limiting evaporation in the Amazon during the rainy season. An additional question pursued in this research is the extent to which small-scale differences in surface cover, such as exist between adjacent forested and deforested patches of the Amazon, produce differences in cloudiness as near-surface air converges into and rises above drier and hence warmer patches.
A key concern in studying such effects is that climate models have limited ability to represent them. Climate models rely on parameterizations to represent clouds and precipitation, and parameterizations have difficulty capturing the diurnal cycle of cloudiness. This is a severe limitation for studying the effect of cloud shading on evaporation, as the effect depends on whether clouds develop when the sun is high in the sky or near or below the horizon. Clouds simulated in climate models are also unlikely to respond to small-scales patchiness in surface cover, as models only represent aggregate cloud cover and surface conditions over grid boxes which extend at least tens of kilometers in each direction.
The PIs use two separate modeling strategies to circumvent these difficulties, the first of which is a limited domain cloud resolving model (the Weather Research and Forecasting model, or WRF) constrained to relax back to a specified background temperature profile. This configuration is based on the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation, which assumes that temperatures well above the surface are horizontally uniform due to the weakness of the Coriolis force over tropical regions such as the Amazon. The WRF-WTG framework allows for very high resolution simulations (grid spacing of one or two kilometers) over limited domains on which the processes of interest can be represented with some realism. The second approach uses a technique known as superparameterization, in which a somewhat simplified cloud resolving model is placed in each grid column of a climate model, creating a hybrid model which represents both the cloud scale and the large scale (see AGS-0425247).
Using these two modeling strategies the PIs perform a number of model experiments to determine the effects of the proposed mechanisms, including experiments in which the land surface turbulent heat flux is prescribed and simulations in which the diurnal cycle of land surface fluxes is reduced by imposing a very large soil heat capacity. The model experiments are complemented with analysis of relevant observations from a number of observing stations in the Amazon, some in deforested regions and some representing the transition from wetter to drier conditions.
The research has societal value as well as scientific interest, as it seeks to improve understanding of climate variability and change in the Amazon, a region of high biodiversity which plays a substantial role in the global water and carbon cycles. In addition, a variety of education and outreach activities are organized around the work, including work with high school students in Harlem, work with a STEM center housed at Cal State Los Angeles, and an undergraduate recruitment effort through the Research in Science and Engineering (RiSE) program at Rutgers. The project also provides support and training for a graduate student and a postdoc.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
This project focuses primarily on modern issues in simulating important details of land-atmosphere interaction over tropical rainforests. How the water cycle will change as carbon dioxide increases under varying deforestation scenarios is especially uncertain near tropical rainforests. To investigate this issue, we first performed detailed simulations and causal process chain detective work over the Amazon. The results showed that even state of the art storm-resolving regional climate models rely on highly uncertain approximations of boundary layer turbulence to mediate the effect of vegetation changes on regional water cycle change. That is, our simulation diagnosis shows that vapor lofting from the surface to above the planetary boundary layer is altered by surface forcing– either via carbon fertilization or deforestation – and that how this is parameterized matters a lot to whether the Amazon rainforest is starved of gross column enthalpy via interactions with advection from the Andean low-level jet. Next, on planetary scales, we also show that a modern US climate model, which assumes a strong plant water efficiency response to future carbon loading, predicts these terrestrial ecosystem processes are a leading control on future changes in river flow equatorward of 30 degrees latitude. This is achieved by linking coarse-grained runoff predictions from a global climate model output with a fine-scale river-routing dynamical model that predicts detailed streamflow dynamics, otherwise unresolved by the standard climate model.
In synergistic climate dynamics research we also studied some interactions between a slow mode of variability in the tropics – the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) – and regional tropical cyclone development in the West Pacific. The MJO is expected to amplify in the future but the effect of this on regional extremes is in debate. Our work tried to sidestep sampling problems by seeding thousands of quasi-explicit cyclone tracks to understand basic MJO-TC interactions in present climate. This identified an especially strong node of activity in the South China Sea where factors beyond relative humidity superpose to create an interesting regional process interaction that appears to make TCs especially sensitive to the MJO's passage. This is relevant to understanding future changes in regional extreme weather as the climate warms, and the MJO is predicted to emplify. Meanwhile we collaborated with a group of researchers to study an important mean state feature of the water cycle – the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This work revealed a robust zonally asymmetric response of the ITCZ to warming in modern climate model predictions. We found that an appealing theoretical framework of hemispherically asymmetric energetics can be applied to understand this response despite the fact that it occurs on sub-planetary scales where such integrative constraints can be difficult to apply.
Finally, a synergistic outcome of this project was helping develop new methods to infuse modern machine learning (ML) into next-generation climate predictions. Neural network process emulation emerged as a rapidly developing subfield during the grant period. Our work in this project contributed by trying to assess the potential of ML emulators beyond idealized aquaplanets, to assess their real-world potential for land-atmosphere interactions, leveraging our focus on rainforest-atmosphere interaction physics. In so doing we also helped build new software to ease the testing of ML emulators inside fully global climate model simulations, published guidelines on how to semi-automatically tune them for optimal fits on large training datasets, and on how to incorporate hard physical constraints to ensure conservation laws are enforced.
Last Modified: 01/03/2022
Modified by: Michael Pritchard
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