Award Abstract # 1734164
Collaborative Research: Role of Cloud Albedo and Land-Atmosphere Interactions on Continental Tropical Climates

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IRVINE
Initial Amendment Date: August 24, 2017
Latest Amendment Date: August 24, 2017
Award Number: 1734164
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Eric DeWeaver
edeweave@nsf.gov
 (703)292-8527
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: September 1, 2017
End Date: August 31, 2021 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $261,093.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $261,093.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2017 = $261,093.00
History of Investigator:
  • Michael Pritchard (Principal Investigator)
    mspritch@uci.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of California-Irvine
160 ALDRICH HALL
IRVINE
CA  US  92697-0001
(949)824-7295
Sponsor Congressional District: 47
Primary Place of Performance: University of California-Irvine
Croul Hall
Irvine
CA  US  92697-3100
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
47
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): MJC5FCYQTPE6
Parent UEI: MJC5FCYQTPE6
NSF Program(s): Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics
Primary Program Source: 01001718DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s):
Program Element Code(s): 574000
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

The land surface interacts strongly with the atmosphere above it, as the atmosphere supplies water to the surface in the form of rain and energy, including sunlight and downwelling infrared radiation. The land in turn affects the atmosphere by providing water vapor through evaporation and transpiration, giving off sensible heat and upwelling infrared radiation, and blocking the wind with trees and other obstacles, among other effects. Land-atmosphere interactions are thus an important topic in climate science, and a key goal research in this area is to understand the feedback mechanisms through which land-surface processes influence the atmosphere in ways that produce further effects on the land and vice versa. Much of the work in this area is focused on precipitation and soil moisture, particularly the extent to which evaporation serves as a source for later precipitation which further controls the amount and distribution of soil moisture.

Here the PIs go beyond soil moisture-precipitation feedback to consider mechanisms that link land surface characteristics to cloudiness and the subsequent shading effect of cloud cover on the surface. One of these is a feedback in which sunlight falling on moist soil produces evaporation, which leads to the formation of clouds or fog, which shades the soil and limits further evaporation. Previous work by the PIs suggests that this negative feedback mechanism plays an important role in limiting evaporation in the Amazon during the rainy season. An additional question pursued in this research is the extent to which small-scale differences in surface cover, such as exist between adjacent forested and deforested patches of the Amazon, produce differences in cloudiness as near-surface air converges into and rises above drier and hence warmer patches.

A key concern in studying such effects is that climate models have limited ability to represent them. Climate models rely on parameterizations to represent clouds and precipitation, and parameterizations have difficulty capturing the diurnal cycle of cloudiness. This is a severe limitation for studying the effect of cloud shading on evaporation, as the effect depends on whether clouds develop when the sun is high in the sky or near or below the horizon. Clouds simulated in climate models are also unlikely to respond to small-scales patchiness in surface cover, as models only represent aggregate cloud cover and surface conditions over grid boxes which extend at least tens of kilometers in each direction.

The PIs use two separate modeling strategies to circumvent these difficulties, the first of which is a limited domain cloud resolving model (the Weather Research and Forecasting model, or WRF) constrained to relax back to a specified background temperature profile. This configuration is based on the weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation, which assumes that temperatures well above the surface are horizontally uniform due to the weakness of the Coriolis force over tropical regions such as the Amazon. The WRF-WTG framework allows for very high resolution simulations (grid spacing of one or two kilometers) over limited domains on which the processes of interest can be represented with some realism. The second approach uses a technique known as superparameterization, in which a somewhat simplified cloud resolving model is placed in each grid column of a climate model, creating a hybrid model which represents both the cloud scale and the large scale (see AGS-0425247).

Using these two modeling strategies the PIs perform a number of model experiments to determine the effects of the proposed mechanisms, including experiments in which the land surface turbulent heat flux is prescribed and simulations in which the diurnal cycle of land surface fluxes is reduced by imposing a very large soil heat capacity. The model experiments are complemented with analysis of relevant observations from a number of observing stations in the Amazon, some in deforested regions and some representing the transition from wetter to drier conditions.

The research has societal value as well as scientific interest, as it seeks to improve understanding of climate variability and change in the Amazon, a region of high biodiversity which plays a substantial role in the global water and carbon cycles. In addition, a variety of education and outreach activities are organized around the work, including work with high school students in Harlem, work with a STEM center housed at Cal State Los Angeles, and an undergraduate recruitment effort through the Research in Science and Engineering (RiSE) program at Rutgers. The project also provides support and training for a graduate student and a postdoc.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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(Showing: 1 - 10 of 11)
Beucler, Tom and Pritchard, Michael and Rasp, Stephan and Ott, Jordan and Baldi, Pierre and Gentine, Pierre "Enforcing Analytic Constraints in Neural Networks Emulating Physical Systems" Physical Review Letters , v.126 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.126.098302 Citation Details
Fowler, M. D. and Pritchard, M. S. "Regional MJO Modulation of Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones Driven by Multiple Transient Controls" Geophysical Research Letters , v.47 , 2020 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087148 Citation Details
Fowler, Megan D. and Kooperman, Gabriel J. and Randerson, James T. and Pritchard, Michael S. "The effect of plant physiological responses to rising CO2 on global streamflow" Nature Climate Change , v.9 , 2019 10.1038/s41558-019-0602-x Citation Details
Gentine, P. and Pritchard, M. and Rasp, S. and Reinaudi, G. and Yacalis, G. "Could Machine Learning Break the Convection Parameterization Deadlock?" Geophysical Research Letters , v.45 , 2018 10.1029/2018GL078202 Citation Details
Gutowski, W. J. and Ullrich, P. A. and Hall, A. and Leung, L. R. and OBrien, T. A. and Patricola, C. M. and Arritt, R. W. and Bukovsky, M. S. and Calvin, K. V. and Feng, Z. and Jones, A. D. and Kooperman, G. J. and Monier, E. and Pritchard, M. S. and Pry "The Ongoing Need for High-Resolution Regional Climate Models: Process Understanding and Stakeholder Information" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , v.101 , 2020 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0113.1 Citation Details
Langenbrunner, B. and Pritchard, M. S. and Kooperman, G. J. and Randerson, J. T. "Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO 2 ?" Earth's Future , v.7 , 2019 10.1029/2018ef001026 Citation Details
Mamalakis, Antonios and Randerson, James T. and Yu, Jin-Yi and Pritchard, Michael S. and Magnusdottir, Gudrun and Smyth, Padhraic and Levine, Paul A. and Yu, Sungduk and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi "Zonally contrasting shifts of the tropical rain belt in response to climate change" Nature Climate Change , v.11 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00963-x Citation Details
Mooers, Griffin and Pritchard, Michael and Beucler, Tom and Ott, Jordan and Yacalis, Galen and Baldi, Pierre and Gentine, Pierre "Assessing the Potential of Deep Learning for Emulating Cloud Superparameterization in Climate Models With RealGeography Boundary Conditions" Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems , v.13 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1029/2020MS002385 Citation Details
Mooers, Griffin and Tuyls, Jens and Mandt, Stephan and Pritchard, Mike and Beucler, Tom G "Generative Modeling of Atmospheric Convection" CI2020 , 2020 https://doi.org/10.1145/3429309.3429324 Citation Details
Ott, Jordan and Pritchard, Mike and Best, Natalie and Linstead, Erik and Curcic, Milan and Baldi, Pierre "A Fortran-Keras Deep Learning Bridge for Scientific Computing" Scientific Programming , v.2020 , 2020 https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/8888811 Citation Details
Rasp, Stephan and Pritchard, Michael S. and Gentine, Pierre "Deep learning to represent subgrid processes in climate models" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , v.115 , 2018 10.1073/pnas.1810286115 Citation Details
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

This project focuses primarily on modern issues in simulating important details of land-atmosphere interaction over tropical rainforests. How the water cycle will change as carbon dioxide increases under varying deforestation scenarios is especially uncertain near tropical rainforests. To investigate this issue, we first performed detailed simulations and causal process chain detective work over the Amazon. The results showed that even state of the art storm-resolving regional climate models rely on highly uncertain approximations of boundary layer turbulence to mediate the effect of vegetation changes on regional water cycle change. That is, our simulation diagnosis shows that vapor lofting from the surface to above the planetary boundary layer is altered by surface forcing– either via carbon fertilization or deforestation – and that how this is parameterized matters a lot to whether the Amazon rainforest is starved of gross column enthalpy via interactions with advection from the Andean low-level jet. Next, on planetary scales, we also show that a modern US climate model, which assumes a strong plant water efficiency response to future carbon loading, predicts these terrestrial ecosystem processes are a leading control on future changes in river flow equatorward of 30 degrees latitude. This is achieved by linking coarse-grained runoff predictions from a global climate model output with a fine-scale river-routing dynamical model that predicts detailed streamflow dynamics, otherwise unresolved by the standard climate model.

 

In synergistic climate dynamics research we also studied some interactions between a slow mode of variability in the tropics – the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) – and regional tropical cyclone development in the West Pacific. The MJO is expected to amplify in the future but the effect of this on regional extremes is in debate. Our work tried to sidestep  sampling problems by seeding thousands of quasi-explicit cyclone tracks to understand basic MJO-TC interactions in present climate. This identified an especially strong node of activity in the South China Sea where factors beyond relative humidity superpose to create an interesting regional process interaction that appears to make TCs especially sensitive to the MJO's passage. This is relevant to understanding future changes in regional extreme weather as the climate warms, and the MJO is predicted to emplify. Meanwhile we collaborated with a group of researchers to study an important mean state feature of the water cycle – the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). This work revealed a robust zonally asymmetric response of the ITCZ to warming in modern climate model predictions. We found that an appealing theoretical framework of hemispherically asymmetric energetics can be applied to understand this response despite the fact that it occurs on sub-planetary scales where such integrative constraints can be difficult to apply.

 

Finally, a synergistic outcome of this project was helping develop new methods to infuse modern machine learning (ML) into next-generation climate predictions. Neural network process emulation emerged as a rapidly developing subfield during the grant period. Our work in this project contributed by trying to assess the potential of ML emulators beyond idealized aquaplanets, to assess their real-world potential for land-atmosphere interactions, leveraging our focus on rainforest-atmosphere interaction physics. In so doing we also helped build new software to ease the testing of ML emulators inside fully global climate model simulations, published guidelines on how to semi-automatically tune them for optimal fits on large training datasets, and on how to incorporate hard physical constraints to ensure conservation laws are enforced.

 


Last Modified: 01/03/2022
Modified by: Michael Pritchard

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