This project expanded and applied methods from Industrial Economy to evaluate the sustainability implications of large-scale deployment of battery technologies. While grid-scale electricity storage (hereafter ?storage?) could be crucial for deeply decarbonizing the electric power system, it would increase carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in current systems across the United States. To better understand how storage transitions from increasing to decreasing system CO2 emissions, we quantified the effect of storage on operational CO2 emissions as a power system decarbonizes under a moderate and strong CO2 emission reduction target through 2045. Under each target, we compared the effect of storage on CO2 emissions when storage participates in only energy, only reserve, and energy and reserve markets. We conducted our study in the Electricity Reliability Council ofTexas (ERCOT) system. We used a capacity expansion model to forecast generator fleet changes and a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to quantify system CO2 emissions with and without storage. We found that storage would increase CO2 emissions in the current ERCOT system but decrease CO2 emissions in 2025 through 2045 under both decarbonization targets. Storage could reduce CO2 emissions primarily by enabling gas-fired generation to displace coal-fired generation and reducing wind and solar curtailment. We further found that the market in which storage participates drives large differences in the magnitude, but not the direction, of the effect of storage on CO2 emissions.

Furthermore, we explored the material requirements and criticality impacts of large-scale deployment of different battery chemistries for various applications in the power system. Specifically, we applied principles of dynamic substance flow analysis to determine the elemental material requirements for active battery materials and the criticality of global deployments of ES for stationary storage. The study focused on four lithium-ion battery chemistries NMC 111, NMC 811, NCA, and LFP), vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB), and lead-acid batteries (PbA), representing a range of commercial, pilot, and mature chemistries. We evaluated the use of these batteries to provide peaking capacity, energy shifting, transmission support, distribution support, and behind-the-meter storage. Finally, we used a multi-dimensional criticality index to assess the criticality of future storage deployment scenarios (up to 2040). The multi-dimensional index includes indicators for material assets, substitute performance, substitute availability, environmental impact ratio, depletion time, companion metal fraction, policy potential index, human development index, world governance indicator for political stability & absence of violence/terrorism, global supply concentration, and environmental implications. When considering criticality, we find that LFP generally is the least critical, and therefore most favorable, despite high material needs and low specific energy. When comparing trade-offs between overall criticality, cost, safety, energy, and power in stationary storage applications over the next two decades, LFP is the most appealing option for installations where energy and power density are not prioritized. Otherwise, NMC 811 is more favorable.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently published the report of Working Group I as part of the 6th Climate Assessment Report. The report suggests that limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures will require reaching net-zero CO2 emissions by the middle of the 21st century. Battery storage technologies are critical for meeting such strict decarbonization targets. While there has been some work to evaluate the material requirements and environmental impacts of individual batteries, there is still a lack of knowledge about material requirements, infrastructure needs, and environmental impacts of global, large-scale deployments of battery technologies. Understanding the implications of such large-scale deployments is crucial to avoid unintended consequences that could exacerbate negative social, economic, and environmental impacts of a transition to low-carbon systems. The work supported by this NSF project can improve public knowledge and improve social, economic, and environmental conditions. 

Last Modified: 11/29/2021
Modified by: Paulina Jaramillo