| NSF Org: |
DEB Division Of Environmental Biology |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | August 8, 2017 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | March 1, 2018 |
| Award Number: | 1702708 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Jason West
jwest@nsf.gov (703)292-7410 DEB Division Of Environmental Biology BIO Directorate for Biological Sciences |
| Start Date: | August 15, 2017 |
| End Date: | July 31, 2022 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $497,891.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $507,891.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2018 = $10,000.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
104 AIRPORT DR STE 2200 CHAPEL HILL NC US 27599-5023 (919)966-3411 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
NC US 27599-3280 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | MacroSysBIO & NEON-Enabled Sci |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001819DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.074 |
ABSTRACT
The timing and synchrony of seasonal events presents real challenges in the natural world. Migratory birds coordinate their departure from wintering grounds in Central or South America to arrive at North American breeding grounds at just the right time. Too early and they risk experiencing severe weather from late frosts or blizzards. Too late and they risk missing the peak in early spring insects that they depend on to successfully raise offspring. For their part, insects such as butterflies also benefit when their emergence coincides with the springtime flush of new plant growth. The timing of spring has been shifting earlier in recent years, and this raises the possibility of mismatches in spring timing between birds, insects, and plants. A few local scale studies have suggested that such mismatches may be responsible for long-term population declines for some species, but the extent of this problem, especially over large areas remains unknown. In this project, the research team will combine information on springtime weather, satellite imagery on plant emergence, and multiple large-scale citizen science data on birds, butterflies, and caterpillars to perform a comprehensive evaluation of mismatches in seasonal timing between interacting species. This work is critical for understanding the potential impacts of continued shifts in seasonality on living systems. The work will also engage K-college students and the public through a new citizen science program, educational units, and outreach events focused on learning about the timing of seasonal changes.
The proposed research will be the first attempt to examine phenological mismatch across three trophic levels at a semi-continental extent. Local-scale studies have documented specific instances of phenological mismatch but fail to inform how mismatch consequences propagate across spatial, temporal, or trophic scales. Birds and butterflies provide the most expansive, long-term and detailed macroecological data sets on distribution, diversity, and demography. The project will unite multiple large-scale citizen science datasets for these taxa with targeted field data collection, and remotely-sensed climate and vegetation data layers, to examine the cross-scale and multi-trophic interactions that connect shifting thermal environments, phenological mismatch, and fitness consequences. This will be accomplished by: (1) assembling and uniting continental and regional monitoring and citizen-science databases for Lepidoptera and birds; (2) building spatio-temporal models in order to assess drivers of phenology, calculate direct metrics of phenological mismatch across trophic levels, and evaluate fitness and population consequences of those mismatches; and (3) testing the ability of generated models to predict phenology and population trends for focal birds and Lepidoptera across eastern North America as a function of tri-trophic phenological mismatch. Taking a macro-scale perspective on phenological mismatch is critical for understanding the range-wide impacts of sustained trends in seasonal timing. In addition to answering critical research questions on phenological mismatch the team will extend the impacts of their work through both specific training opportunities and broad-based education and outreach efforts.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
This project demonstrated how climate change is impacting the seasonal timing of vegetation, insect, and bird activity across eastern North America. We showed that in many cases, these three groups are shifting their seasonal timing in response to warming to different degrees, which implies that they may become "out of sync" or seasonally mismatched with each other. When birds migrate and reproduce early or late relative to the period of peak resource availability, they may have higher mortality or produce fewer young. This seasonal, or phenological, mismatch is a potentially important driver of bird and insect declines which merits further research.
A critical source of data used in all facets of the project came from the contributions made by "citizen scientists", members of the public who are not necessarily trained scientists but who submit their observations of the natural world to public databases. In particular, we used millions of observations from eBird.org collected by amateur birdwatchers, caterpillar and butterfly observations from iNaturalist.org, and foliage insect surveys conducted by the general public through the Caterpillars Count! project (https://caterpillarscount.unc.edu). For the insect data sources in particular, we verified that the quality of data collected by citizen scientists is high and therefore has great potential in future research analyzing the impacts of climate change. We also characterized some of the potential geographic, temporal, and taxonomic biases in citizen scientist activity to ensure that data are analyzed properly in the future taking such biases into account.
As a part of our Broader Impacts, we conducted a variety of Caterpillars Count!-related outreach activities including (1) 11 in-person training workshops at environmental education and nature centers across eastern North America, and 13 virtual training webinars teaching people how to participate in the project, (2) enlisted Caterpillars Count! participation at 185 sites in 32 different states and provinces across North America by more than 1,700 citizen science participants, (3) showcased project-based lesson plans to K-12 teachers, (3) conducted presentations and workshops at state and national level conferences for Environmental Educators, (4) gave public presentations on the impacts of climate change on birds and bugs through various natural history clubs and chapters, (5) hosted a panel on how to incorporate citizen science into higher education classrooms, and (6) produced 40 monthly newsletters sent out to >2,000 unique subscribers associated with Caterpillars Count! highlighting project findings and discussing environmental issues surrounding birds, bugs, and climate change. All Caterpillars Count! data have been made freely available to the public, and the project website allows anyone to visually explore patterns in the data.
Over the course of the grant, we trained 3 graduate students (2 female) who all received extensive training in data collection and management, data analysis, and collaborative science approaches.The grant supported student travel to participate in multi-institutional working group meetings as well as the presentation of their work at scientific conferences. Graduate students were able to take advantage of various courses and workshops at UNC emphasizing different aspects of professional development, and were also involved in citizen science outreach.
A total of 10 undergraduate research students (8 female, 1 first generation college) were supported as summer field assistants. They received training in data collection and management, attended lab meetings, and participated in the discussion and presentation of research findings. Four of the six undergraduates that have since graduated are currently in graduate programs in biology or ecology, and one is currently applying.
Last Modified: 12/02/2022
Modified by: Allen H Hurlbert
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