| NSF Org: |
SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | February 16, 2017 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | February 16, 2017 |
| Award Number: | 1658749 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Nancy Lutz
nlutz@nsf.gov (703)292-7280 SES Division of Social and Economic Sciences SBE Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences |
| Start Date: | March 15, 2017 |
| End Date: | August 31, 2018 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $14,975.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $14,975.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
845 N PARK AVE RM 538 TUCSON AZ US 85721 (520)626-6000 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
1130 E. Helen Street Tucson AZ US 85721-0108 |
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Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| NSF Program(s): | Economics |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.075 |
ABSTRACT
In the 1950s, the United States conducted scores of atmospheric nuclear tests at the Nevada Test Site just northwest of Las Vegas. Millions of people were exposed to harmful radioactive material as a result of these tests, but the full extent of the health and welfare effects are unknown. Using radiation deposition data for the United States, the investigator studies the effects fallout had on American agriculture and human health. Current work by the National Cancer Institute has not combined radiation exposure estimates with publicly available U.S. Vital Statistics and public health data. The project fills this research gap and provides important insights into the direct effect of these tests upon American health. Though only populations in a small number of counties in Nevada, Utah, and Arizona have been compensated for downwind fallout exposure through the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA), this project investigates whether the human health consequences of the Nevada tests extend far beyond the RECA region. The investigator also examines whether radiation deposition from atmospheric tests between 1951 and 1958 resulted in considerable damage to the agricultural sector. Studying adaptive responses to this damage provides insight into how agricultural policy shapes agricultural investment and responses to adverse events.
The investigator uses reduced-form econometric methods to provide a rigorous empirical account of the external damage caused by domestic atmospheric testing. This research methodology uses exogenous within-county variation in fallout patterns across years to measure the causal relationship between radioactive pollution and outcomes of interest. Using annual data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service and U.S. Agricultural Censuses, the investigator measures the direct effects of fallout on agricultural productivity and the adjustments made in response to these productivity shocks. The previous studies on the health consequences of radiation exposure from tests have focused primarily on identifying cancer risks among downwind populations and extrapolating out to the general population. This project uses national variation in fallout patterns and mortality to identify the causal relationship between fallout and public health. Using this methodology, the investigator measures not only the geographic extent of the harm, but also the temporal effect of radiation exposure upon regional mortality patterns. Through U.S. Vital Statistics and the Multiple Cause of Death data, this project identifies the causal channels driving the increase in crude deaths more accurately.
PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Project Outcomes Summary
From 1951 to 1963 the United States government conducted scores of above ground nuclear tests in the Nevada desert. Each test generated large quantities of radioactive matter, which then precipitated down across much of the continental United States. The initial research performed by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) shows that exposure to this fallout was indeed harmful. This research has focused primarily on identifying cancer risks among populations near the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and does not examine a wide range of other effects of this radioactive fallout on socio-economic activity or health for much of the continental United States.
This NSF funded dissertation resulted in several findings: 1) Atmospheric nuclear testing at the NTS adversely affected U.S. agriculture in regions hundreds to thousands of miles from the location of bomb tests. 2) USDA policies regulating agricultural production interacted with fallout shocks in perverse ways and these USDA regulations further distorted wheat production in more irradiated counties. 3) Fallout from NTS tests led to substantial increases in crude death rates over a twenty-year period. These increases suggest that nuclear testing contributed to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths.
This NSF funded dissertation project has resulted in three working papers (one is accepted and will be published in the March 2019 issue of the Journal of Economic History), two data sets relevant to researchers interested in public health and the effects of nuclear testing, a catalog of untranscribed U.S. government manuscripts relating to USDA interventions in U.S. agriculture during the 1930s, 1940s, and 1950s, and provided research experience for four undergraduate students at the University of Arizona.
Intellectual Merits & Broader Impact
Atmospheric nuclear testing created tremendous amounts of harmful radioactive pollutants in the 1950s. Labor economists have started to explore the effects of in-utero exposure of radioactive pollutants upon outcomes in Scandinavian populations. I expand the economic analysis of nuclear testing to U.S. populations and to agriculture. Furthermore, I use a geographically broader dataset that tracks the position of the fallout cloud over time from its point of origin and this data possess greater variation in fallout deposition. This research and resulting data products provide important insights into the direct effect of these nuclear testing on public welfare and provide material for subsequent research project pertinent to the public and policy makers.
Policy makers are often concerned about the effects of pollution and the cost of providing health coverage for aging Americans. Many aging Americans were exposed to radioactive fallout during their childhoods. This exposure might have long term health consequences and burden social safety net programs. Only populations in a small number of counties in Nevada, Utah and Arizona have been compensated for downwind fallout exposure through the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA). This dissertation explores the extent to which populations living beyond the RECA compensation areas were harmed. The results suggest than nuclear testing may have adversely affected the health more people than previously thought.
Furthermore, my research into agricultural responses to crop damage from nuclear fallout provides insight into how policy might affect future agricultural responses to adverse productivity shocks, such a climate change. I find that USDA policies that regulated farmers? production based on their past decisions and crop performance created a ?use-it or lose-it? scenario for farmers. These policies created incentives for farmers to divert resources towards poorly performing crops when it may have been otherwise optimal to do the opposite.
Last Modified: 11/01/2018
Modified by: Keith Meyers
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