Put broadly, this project has furthered an understanding of what the rest of the world may soon be facing as a result of climate change. This was done by assessing adaptation in the context of development planning in high latitude rural communities by comparing data on recent economic change among a sample of municipalities to identify elements of local development strategies that are associated with positive economic change in the local economy. Specifically, municipalities included were parts of Norway, Sweden, Finland, and northwestern Russia lying above the Arctic Circle.

This research is especially relevant to the most challenged remote municipalities in countries that will face climate change adaptation needs to sustain development and viability as local economies. High latitude rural communities have always been challenged by extreme climates and short growing seasons, along with the usual combination of remoteness, including distance to markets, small populations, outmigration of younger people, and small scale that face most rural areas. Yet variance in the usual indicators of development can be seen among high latitude regions, indicating that some localities have been more successful than others in offsetting their geographic disadvantages.

Based on empirical evidence from research on marginal area development, we put forth and utilized factors that would normally be associated with variation in development indicators to identify elements of local development strategies that are associated with positive economic change in the local economy. These factors were incorporated into survey interviews with local officials from each municipality included in the study, 39 in total. These interview data served as the foundation of a comparative database of the variance and factors associated with development patterns collected over several years. These data may help us understand how to encourage and help create sustainable local development in remote rural settings, and better understand adaptive options open to communities facing climate change.

In high latitude areas, our findings show some development indicators were found to be especially important, such as transportation connections and transfer payments from national government support. Infrastructure development, population growth, and a diversified economy were the most notable development goals spanning the region with varying strategies for achieving these goals including investment in infrastructure expansion and offering strong social support services. Variations occurred in national government support based on national policies, with most municipalities stressing the importance of such funding. Those with a higher level of adaptive capacity supplemented this support with lateral cooperation with neighboring municipalities or countries. Cooperation efforts spanned themes of sovereignty, scientific research, resource development, shipping, and environmental concerns. Municipalities that addressed climate change issues in their development planning were among the more successful municipalities in terms of economic development, though all of these plans were noted as being in need of updates

There were also differences in the scale of problems related to size of the municipality, with demographic structural problems being most severe in smallest municipalities and service provision problems being more common to larger municipalities. Three interrelated problem types contributed to major challenges: retaining and creating employment opportunities for young people, causing outmigration of youth, declining fertility, and increased social service costs for aging populations. Some municipalities were further disadvantaged by lack of human resources, differing political prioritizations, and issues surrounding uncertainty or distrust towards climate change science. Compounding this, rapid climate changes in the extreme northern latitudes expressed in melting icebergs and ice flows affect hunting and the length of the hunting season, changing fish populations, increased insect populations, and other observable weather changes that warn of further and lasting impacts. The changing climate has also affected traditional economic activities in agriculture, hunting, and fishing because of changing patterns of both temperature and precipitation and associated problems with floods and melting permafrost.

Overall, this project examined how local development strategies in remote rural areas have contributed to economic growth in the context of differing national policies and local conditions. Throughout interviews, climate change was noted as likely to affect future prospects for growth in some industries, with the possible exception of mining. However, climate change might also make possible some alternative economic activities that could result from some new opportunities, either at the local level or in the larger region, such as agriculture.

Last Modified: 12/20/2016
Modified by: Tim Frazier