| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | September 9, 2016 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | June 21, 2018 |
| Award Number: | 1622341 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Ilia Roussev
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | September 15, 2016 |
| End Date: | August 31, 2020 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $343,502.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $343,501.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2017 = $114,414.00 FY 2018 = $119,842.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
NASA RESEARCH PARK, BLDG 18, ROOM 101, 385 BUSHNELL STREET MOFFETT FIELD CA US 94035 (707)938-9387 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
625 2nd St Petaluma CA US 94952-5159 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001718DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001819DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
This 3-year SHINE project is aimed at developing data assimilation techniques for physics-based predictions of the solar activity on the scale of the solar cycle. The project is expected to improve our modeling capabilities to predict the solar cycle, and to advance our knowledge about the solar dynamo and the nature of the solar cycle. The data assimilation techniques applied to the sophisticated dynamo models would benefit the broad solar physics community. The scientific outcome of this project would be important for the studies in the heliosphere, the Earth's upper atmosphere, and possibly climate in the long-term, and it would be beneficial for current and future space missions and society.
The research plan of this 3-year SHINE project includes the following tasks: (i) investigate the sensitivity of model predictions to uncertainties in observational data for various data assimilation methods and various reduced dynamo models in a dynamical system formulation; (ii) develop procedures to estimate the model parameters, system state, and their uncertainties; verify and test data assimilation procedures by applying them to simulated data and previous solar cycle observations; (iii) using current observational data, calculate predictions of the sunspot number and total poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components for Cycle 25, and provide uncertainties and confidence intervals; and (iv) develop a data assimilation procedure for long-term synoptic forecasts of solar activity by using 2D dynamo models, synoptic magnetograms, and meridional flow measurements from the Solar Dynamics Observatory and ground-based synoptic networks such as GONG and SOLIS. The project is directly relevant to the NSF's SHINE program, because it will provide important knowledge about the global solar activity, which is the major source of high-energy disturbances in the solar, heliospheric, and interplanetary environment. Such knowledge is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of space weather conditions from the solar surface to the Earth and beyond. The research and EPO agenda of this project supports the Strategic Goals of the AGS Division in discovery, learning, diversity, and interdisciplinary research.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
The development of new technologies (in space exploration, navigation, aviation, energy supplies, medicine) makes us more sensitive to space weather events driven by solar activity. The project goal is to develop data assimilation techniques for physics-based prediction of the Sun's activity on the decadal-scale, so-called solar cycle. The available observations are limited and cover mostly surface layers that challenge us to look for a way to combine current theoretical understanding of the solar magnetic field generation and evolution and observations into a more accurate prediction model of the global solar activity.
The sunspot observations (available for over 400 years) allow us to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo model and assimilate it with observations using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method. This data assimilation analysis enables reconstructing past activity variations and making predictions of the following activity cycle. Our studies of the possibility of early activity predictions reveal a chance to predict the solar activity during changing magnetic field polarities at the polar regions. However, the accuracy of the forecast decreases with the increasing time lag of the field reversals in different hemispheres of the Sun.
Optimization of the model and data assimilation procedure and investigation of the effects of limited observational data enable us to identify five criteria for evaluating the forecast accuracy. This substantial validation and verification work make it possible the transition from the sunspot number time-series to full-disk synoptic magnetograms available for over 40-years. In these studies, the synoptic observations of the magnetic field from NASA's space missions SOHO and SDO are combined with ground-based data from the National Solar Observatory.
The poloidal and toroidal magnetic field components derived from the synoptic magnetogram are used to study the new predictive capabilities and make an early prediction of general properties of the next solar cycle. The results indicate that the upcoming Solar Maximum (Solar Cycle 25) is expected to be significantly weaker than Solar Cycle 24.
The model results show that a deep extended solar activity minimum is expected in 2019 - 2021, and the solar maximum is expected in 2024 - 2025. The sunspot number at the maximum is found to be about 50 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series) with an error estimate of ~15 - 30%. The maximum is likely to have a double peak or an extended high activity period for over 2 - 2.5-years. The Solar Cycle is predicted to start in the Southern hemisphere in 2020 and reach maximum in 2024 with a sunspot number of ~ 28 (+/-10%). Solar activity in the Northern hemisphere will be delayed for about 1 year (with an error of +/- 0.5 years) and reach maximum in 2025 with a sunspot number of ~ 23 (with error 21%). Solar maximum likely will have a double-peak or extended activity maximum (up to 2 - 2.5-years long).
Last Modified: 11/22/2020
Modified by: Irina Kitiashvili
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