Award Abstract # 1419520
Ea SM-3: Collaborative Res: Surface-induced Forcing and Decadal Variability and Change of the East Asian Climate, Surface Hydrology & Agriculture-A Modeling and Data Approach

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: SAN DIEGO STATE UNIVERSITY FOUNDATION
Initial Amendment Date: July 31, 2014
Latest Amendment Date: June 27, 2019
Award Number: 1419520
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Eric DeWeaver
edeweave@nsf.gov
 (703)292-8527
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: August 1, 2014
End Date: July 31, 2020 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $125,255.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $125,255.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2014 = $125,255.00
History of Investigator:
  • Samuel Shen (Principal Investigator)
    sam.shen@sdsu.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: San Diego State University Foundation
5250 CAMPANILE DR
SAN DIEGO
CA  US  92182-1901
(619)594-5731
Sponsor Congressional District: 51
Primary Place of Performance: San Diego State University
5500 Campanile Drive
San Diego
CA  US  92182-7720
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
51
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): H59JKGFZKHL7
Parent UEI: H59JKGFZKHL7
NSF Program(s): CR, Earth System Models
Primary Program Source: 01001415DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 5740, 8012
Program Element Code(s): 801200
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

This project will contribute to identifying the attribution of East Asian (EA) precipitation changes to anthropogenic and natural drivers and the effects of climate variability on the ecosystem and water resources. The Tibetan Plateau is the source of major Asian river systems that support more than a billion people downstream. The results from this study will provide useful information for surface hydrology and agriculture, critical for a populous and economically vibrant part of the world. The tools for this EA study can be used for global and other regional studies and the state-of-the-art models developed in this project will be released to the research community. This project will also contribute to a number of educational outreach activities.

A fully-coupled Atmospheric/Ocean GCM/biophysical and biogeochemical models/dynamic vegetation model to: examine the improvements in predictions of EA climate variability and change due to surface-induced forcings, including land use and land cover change (LULCC) and dust and black carbon effects and their two-way interactions in reference to predictions in which one or more of those processes and interactions are neglected; to evaluate and attribute the role played in the EA climate variability by these factors and mechanisms; to examine the effects of those processes on future projections of that regional climate; and to estimate uncertainty through a set of experiments.

Data from different sources, especially from observations in the Tibetan Plateau (TP), will be applied to evaluate model predictions. In addition, a regional climate model with high resolution will be applied to assess the regional details of effects of surface-atmosphere interactions on the climate and ecosystem of EA, the TP in particular. Through the representation of key non-linear feedback processes in the EaSM, this project has the potential to substantially improve predictive capabilities and to further explain how different Earth processes and human activities have contributed to EA climate variability and changes over much of the last century.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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1.Zhang, G., T. Yao, W. Chen, G. Zheng, C.K. Shum, K. Yang, S. Piao, Y. Sheng, S. Yi, J. Li, C. M. O'Reilly, S. Qi, S. S.P. Shen, H. Zhang, and Y. Jia "Regional differences of lake evolution across China during 1960s?2015 and its natural and anthropogenic causes" Remote Sensing of Environment , v.221 , 2019 , p.386 10.1016/j.rse.2018.11.038
2.T. Yao, Y. Xue, D. Chen, F. Chen, L. Thompson, P. Cui, T. Koike, W. K.-M. Lau, D. Lettenmaier, V. Mosbrugger, R. Zhang, B. Xu, J. Dozier, T. Gillespie, Y. Gu, S. Kang, S. Piao, S. Sugimoto, K. Ueno, L. Wang, F. Zhang, Y. Sheng, W. Guo, W. Wang, Ailikun "Recent Third Pole's rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and interactions between monsoon and environment: multi-disciplinary approach with observation, modeling and analysis" Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , v.100 , 2019 , p.423 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0057.1
Cavanaugh, N., and S.S.P. Shen "Effects of gridding algorithms on the statistical moments and their trends of daily surface air temperature" J. Climate , v.28 , 2016 , p.9188
Gao, J., S.S.P. Shen, T. Yao, N. Tafolla, C. Risi, and Y. He "Reconstruction of precipitation ?18O over the Tibetan Plateau since 1910" Journal of Geophysical Research , 2015
Gao, J., S.S.P. Shen, T. Yao, N. Tafolla, C. Risi, and Y. He "Reconstruction of precipitation 18O over the Tibetan Plateau since 1910" Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres , 2015 DOI: 10.1002/2015JD023233
Hua, W., S.S.P. Shen, A. Weithmann, and H. Wang "Estimation of the uncertainties in the observed surface air temperature change in China since 1951" Theoretical and Applied Climatology , 2016 , p.DOI 10.10
Leung, K., M. Velado, A. Subramanian, G.J. Zhang, R.C.J. Somerville, and S.S.P. Shen "Simulation of high-resolution precipitable water data using a stochastic differential equation with a random trigger" Advances in Data Science and Adaptive Analysis , v.8 , 2016 , p.10.1142/S
Pierret, J., and S.S.P. Shen "4D visual delivery of big climate data: A fast web database application system" Advances in Data Science and Adaptive Analysis , v.9 , 2017 10.1142/S2424922X17500061
Shen, S.S.P., G. J. Clarke, T.D. Yao, B.W. Shen, 2017 "Spatiotemporal variations of the 20th century Tibetan Plateau precipitation based on the monthly 2.5-degree reconstructed data" Theoretical and Applied Climatology , 2017 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2357-5.
Shen, S.S.P., J. Pierret, I. Dorado and S. Ilawe "4DVD Visualization and Delivery of the 20th Century Reanalysis Data: Methods and Examples" Theoretical and Applied Climatology , v.142 , 2020 , p.243 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03288-z
Shen, S.S.P., R. Yao, J. Ngo, A.M. Basist, N. Thomas, and T. Yao "Characteristics of Tibetan Plateau snow cover variations based on daily data during 1997-2011" Theoretical and Applied Climatology , 2015 doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1185-0.
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

This collaborative EaSM3 project entitled “Surface-induced Forcing and Decadal Variability and Change of the East Asian Climate, Surface Hydrology & Agriculture-A Modeling and Data Approach” was led by Dr. Yongkang Xue at UCLA in collaboration with Drs. William Parton of Colorado State University and Samuel Shen of San Diego State University (SDSU). The SDSU site focused on data analysis and visualization. A complex system of 4-dimensional visual delivery (4DVD) of big climate data was developed to visualize and deliver some datasets related to the project. The 4DVD system has an interface website www.4dvd.org which can deliver climate data to classrooms and the general public with a very fast speed and make the climate data access only a click away. We also developed a dynamical snow cover monitoring system that can visualize the daily snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau region. Its interface website is http://www.itsonlyamodel.us/daily-snow.html . Our research reconstructed the history of the Tibetan Plateau monthly precipitation since January 1901. The product allows the climate modelers to examine the spatiotemporal patterns over Tibetan Plateau. We also developed computer codes to make statistical prediction of the June precipitation in East Asia using the Tibetan Plateau surface temperature. The research has resulted in many publications, one of which was featured on the cover of the Bulletin of American Meteorological Society. Through these research activities, we have trained 1 PhD student, 5 Masters students, and 2 undergraduate students.

 


Last Modified: 10/30/2020
Modified by: Samuel S Shen

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