| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | November 19, 2013 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | November 27, 2015 |
| Award Number: | 1342049 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
edward bensman
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | December 1, 2013 |
| End Date: | November 30, 2017 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $353,657.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $353,657.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2015 = $113,059.00 FY 2016 = $119,117.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
845 N PARK AVE RM 538 TUCSON AZ US 85721 (520)626-6000 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
AZ US 85721-0081 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Physical & Dynamic Meteorology |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001516DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001617DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
This project aims to improve basic understanding of the physical mechanisms associated with size and structure changes of a tropical cyclone (TC) due to interaction with its environment. Through a two-tiered approach using reanalysis datasets and numerical simulations, the fundamental physical mechanisms associated with TC size and structure change (expansion/contraction) will be investigated. Improved understanding of the physical processes associated with TC size/structure change is essential to better predict their future impacts.
Intellectual Merit :
This project will improve understanding of fundamental processes in the environment that produce TC size and structure change. TC size and outer wind structure determine the total area of landfall impact through radius of damaging winds, storm surge, and extent of rainfall. A better understanding of how TC size and outer wind strength is modified by the environment will result in better anticipation of these downstream impacts and, ultimately, better evacuation planning. These gains in knowledge will be achieved through a combined observational and numerical simulation study. The relationships between size/structure change and a number of environmental parameters will be explored using reanalysis data. Then, through examination of a series of initial-value and time varying, full-physics simulations utilizing a very fine mesh and explicit moist physics, the basic physical mechanisms that govern size and structure change from environmental forcing will be established.
Broader Impacts :
There are several areas of broader impact that will be addressed in the course of the work. The University of Arizona (UA) is committed institutionally to the research-based education of the next generation of scientists. Towards that end, this project will support early career development of a Postdoctoral Scholar and the education of a graduate student in a STEM discipline. The PI has a strong record of graduate and undergraduate student support and a demonstrated history of fostering graduate research, especially for women and other underrepresented groups.
We also target elementary school education via a program called "Adopt-A-School" (AAS). The vision of AAS is to partner a single elementary school with a group of UA personnel to create a close, long-term relationship designed to strengthen STEM education at the elementary level with disadvantaged communities. Hollinger Elementary is a bilingual Title 1 school with a population that is over 90% Hispanic. This school year we have over 15 mentors working in 16 classrooms at all grade levels. Our goal is to provide role models and broaden the vision of these children so that they too dream of going to College. Graduate students working with the PI are mentors in these classrooms and the results gained during the course of this research are communicated to these children as part of enabling and enhancing the STEM education. Weather in general and TCs in particular, provide a source of information for STEM learning that excites the children.
Finally, this award has the potential to significantly impact society as a whole. Forecasting of TC activity in general, and structure change specifically, is a problem that affects everyday people globally. Improvement of the understanding of large-scale patterns associated with significant structure change that contribute to forecasting ability is of great importance to our science. The ability to adequately forecast size and structure change, which impacts evacuation planning, wave setup and storm surge, has the potential to improve evacuation planning and disaster remediation. This project truly has the potential to have an impact far beyond the scientific community.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Outcomes:
Intellectual Merit:
The extent (or size) of the tropical cyclone wind field, especially the extent of the damaging winds is of considerable importance as a tropical cyclone approaches land. The extent of the damaging winds dictates evacuation zones, drives storm surge and wave heights, and along with the rain, contributes to the overall damages upon landfall. We currently have very little understanding about what factors control the size and strength of the tropical cyclone wind field. In this project we investigated the environmental controls on tropical cyclone wind field extent.
Using a sophisticated numerical weather prediction model, we discovered that a tropical cyclone embedded in a colder (warmer) environment than the control, but with the same underlying sea-surface temperatures, increased (decreased) surface fluxes from the ocean, which in turn increased (decreased) the convective available potential energy, and thus convection within the tropical cyclone. In the colder environment, the enhanced convection resulted in development of large and vigorous rainbands extending several hundred kilometres from the center, which resulted in an extended wind field compared with the control. In the warmer environment, there was little rainbanding and convection was restricted to the core. The wind field remained relatively small compared to the control in the warmer environment.
Real tropical cyclones during the period 1988-2010 were then used to examine how the environment impacts wind field size change. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was then applied on tropical cyclone-centered ERA Interim gridded data during times of size change resulted in identification of 3 statistically-separated environments associated with tropical cyclone size increase and decrease. These environments were associated with: the deep tropics; the sub-tropics; and the extra-tropics. Analysis of the tropicla cyclones undergoing size changes within each of these three environments allowed us to identify mechanisms for size change specific to these environments.
Broader Impacts:
Identifying the environmental factors that affect the size and strength of tropical cyclones has the potential to greatly improve real-time forecasts of these systems, leading to better evacuation plans and damage forecasts, and, hopefully, mitigating the loss of life and property. This research also had a broader scale impact in the education and training of two postdoctoral scholars and several graduate students in the STEM disciplines. The funded mentees also had the opportunity to participate in the unique 'Adopt-A-School' program developed by the PI, which partners University STEM researchers with teachers in an underprivileged elementary school to engage with children in active learning at early year levels.
Publications arising from the project:
Referred Journal Articles:
Clark, E., K. M. Wood, S. D. Aberson, H. M. Archambault, S. M. Milrad, L. F. Bosart, K. L. Corbosiero, C. A. Davis, J. R. Dias Pinto, C. Fogarty, T. J. Galarneau, Jr., C. M. Grams, K. S. Griffin, J. Gyakum, R. E. Hart, N. Kitabatake, H. S. Lentink, R. McTaggart-Cowan, W. Perrie, J. F. D. Quinting, C. A. Reynolds, M. Riemer, E. A. Ritchie, Y. Sun, and F. Zhang (2017). The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Part I: Cyclone evolution and direct impacts. Monthly Weather Review. 145 (11), 4317-4344. DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0027.1
Ritchie, E. A., and D. R. Stovern (2018). Environments associated with tropical cyclone size change in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Journal of Climate.
Strickler, W. R., E. A. Ritchie, and K. M. Wood (2018). GEFS/R predictability of high-impact U.S. weather events downstream of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. Being revised for Monthly Weather Review.
Wood, K. M., E. A. Ritchie, and E. K. Smith (2018). Predictability of tropical cyclone size changes using GEFS/R ensemble forecasts in the North Atlantic. Weather and Forecasting.
Thesis/Dissertations:
Smith, E. K., E. A. Ritchie, and K. M. Wood. Predictability of tropical cyclone size changes using GEFS/R ensemble forecasts in the North Atlantic. (2015). Masters Thesis, University of Arizona.
Strickler, W. R., E. A. Ritchie, and K. M. Wood. GEFS/R predictability of high-impact U.S. weather events downstream of extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific. (2015). Masters Thesis, University of Arizona.
D. R. Stovern. The environments and physical mechanisms that cause size and structure changes in a tropical cyclone. (2014). Doctoral Dissertation, University of Arizona.
Last Modified: 03/01/2018
Modified by: Elizabeth Ritchie
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