NSF Org:	OPP Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
Recipient:	ARCTIC RESEARCH CONSORTIUM OF THE UNITED STATES, INCORPORATED
Initial Amendment Date:	June 14, 2013
Latest Amendment Date:	May 24, 2017
Award Number:	1304484
Award Instrument:	Standard Grant
Program Manager:	Marc Stieglitz mstiegli@nsf.gov  (703)292-4354 OPP  Office of Polar Programs (OPP) GEO  Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date:	June 15, 2013
End Date:	December 31, 2017 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount:	$435,591.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date:	$435,591.00
Funds Obligated to Date:	FY 2013 = $435,591.00
History of Investigator:	Helen Wiggins (Principal Investigator) helen@arcus.org Susan Fox (Former Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office:	Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. 3535 COLLEGE RD FAIRBANKS AK  US  99709-3722 (907)474-1600
Sponsor Congressional District:	00
Primary Place of Performance:	Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. 3535 College Road Fairbanks AK  US  99709-3710
Primary Place of Performance Congressional District:	00
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI):	E5RSJGBH7CU8
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s):	ARCSS-Arctic System Science
Primary Program Source:	0100XXXXDB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s):	1079
Program Element Code(s):	521900
Award Agency Code:	4900
Fund Agency Code:	4900
Assistance Listing Number(s):	47.078

ABSTRACT

Recent major changes in the extent, thickness and properties of arctic sea ice have captured attention and posed significant challenges to a diverse group of stakeholders, ranging from maritime safety and security, resource management and development, politicians, coastal communities, weather and climate forecasters, climate change researchers, and a growing segment of the general public. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal-to-interannual timescales, especially over the summer and into fall, is of particular interest. Though each stakeholder is driven by different priorities, all require improved monitoring, prediction, and communication of sea ice conditions. To date, sea ice modeling efforts have largely focused on climate scales (i.e., response to greenhouse gas forcing) or targeted synoptic forecasting in support of navigation. Sea ice forecasting on seasonal scales is a challenge because of: (1) high variability in atmospheric and oceanic influence, (2) observations for initialization and validation have limited coverage and/or high uncertainties, (3) limitations of current model capabilities, (4) inherent limitations in sea ice predictability, and (5) an Arctic system changing in ways without recent historical precedent.

The SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook was implemented four years ago in an ad hoc fashion, requesting voluntary contributions to estimate September sea ice extent based on late spring (June 1) conditions. Contributions have been made using different methods that vary from complex (partially- and fully- coupled general circulation models and statistical relationships) to basic (trend extrapolation, heuristic, public poll). The Outlook will be organized and expanded into a more structured, coordinated and formal effort that focuses on tackling key barriers to sea ice forecasting, including rigorous evaluation of predictions, coordination and organization of relevant observations for initialization, evaluation of methods, and finally, an organizational network structure to manage the efforts and communicate results in new ways. This effort builds on the experience of the past four years and expands on structures already in place, leveraging resources and expertise at an international scale to help address a set of challenges recognized as priorities by a range of U.S. and international programs and organizations.

Intellectual Merit - This project advances NSF?s goal of providing improved predictive tools for the Arctic by creating an innovative network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. The network?s focus is to develop new methods to evaluate forecasts, new metrics for synthesis and comparison across forecast methods and new approaches to initialize forecast methods with targeted observations. Finally, the network will investigate how different forecasting methods can be combined to exceed predictive skills of narrower approaches. The research team will explore how best to plan observations for improved seasonal predictions and how these predictions in turn can advance understanding of the evolving state of the arctic sea ice cover.

Broader Impacts - Improved seasonal forecasts of arctic sea ice will be developed and disseminated for societal benefit. By fostering and coordinating an international network of researchers and leveraging a broad range of activities, the project provides information tailored to stakeholders? needs. In addition to rigorous evaluations of stakeholder information needs, the network will develop a common reference framework for key sea ice variables and predictors, generating integrated datasets and predicted fields for the scientific community and stakeholders. Activities will also be initiated to inform and engage the growing internet communities of citizen scientists, many of whom already show a strong interest in arctic science, have capabilities for their own original and potentially worthwhile analysis, and connect with wider networks of media and public discussion. The activities will include graduate students and post-docs who are mentored to conduct high-quality research at the intersection of fundamental and applied research. By entraining more young researchers into the network, the project also addresses an important need for qualified experts that can help address urgent questions concerning resource uses and ecosystem services impacted by rapid arctic sea ice change.

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN; https://www.arcus.org/sipn) project was launched in 2013 to build and sustain a collaborative community of sea ice scientists and other stakeholders interested in improving predictions of changing Arctic sea ice. Better understanding of Arctic sea ice extent is of particular interest to not only scientists, but to many stakeholder groups who need better information to plan activities in the Arctic, including shipping, tourism, and fishing.

Scientific accomplishments included:

• Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) reports - the SIO produced reports in June, July, and August every year with a variety of contributions on Arctic sea ice—from observations of current conditions, to advanced numerical models, to perspectives from citizen scientists. Post-season reports provided in-depth analysis of the factors that drive sea ice extent during the summer as well as an analysis of the scientific methods for predicting ice extent.
• The number of contributions to the Sea Ice Outlook grew throughout the project; for the last year of the Sea Ice Outlook in 2017, a total of 106 contributions were submitted —a record number for the project.
• The methods that contributors used became more sophisticated over the course of the project, facilitated by the Sea Ice Outlook, information-sharing during workshops and meetings, and participation in SIPN project teams convened to evaluate the accuracy of various predictions.
• The SIPN Leadership Team also catalyzed new sea ice prediction activities by encouraging contributors to submit predictions for specific sub-regions of the Arctic, in addition to the pan-Arctic focus.

 

Accomplishments to expand community engagement & broader impacts included:

• Over the duration of the project, the range of people engaged in the project broadened to include a diverse spectrum of scientists as well as those from the media, industry, Federal and state agencies, policymakers, and members of the science-interested public. The Sea Ice Outlook reports were an open and transparent effort that could be joined by anyone interested.
• A series of open town hall meetings, workshops, and webinars addressed a range of topics and provided a venue for open discussion.
• Information, resources, and related news was shared openly and archived on the SIPN website, several email lists reaching thousands of people, and on social media.

 

Last Modified: 03/16/2018
Modified by: Helen V Wiggins

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