| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | September 9, 2013 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | July 7, 2015 |
| Award Number: | 1257519 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
John Meriwether
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | September 1, 2013 |
| End Date: | August 31, 2017 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $122,784.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $122,784.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2014 = $40,914.00 FY 2015 = $41,979.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
1109 GEDDES AVE STE 3300 ANN ARBOR MI US 48109-1015 (734)763-6438 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
2455 Hayward Str Ann Arbor MI US 48109-2143 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001415DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001516DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
The investigators will develop an automated system for continuously running a research-based, observation-driven, real-time simulation of the solar corona and inner heliosphere at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Every day, or more frequently, the system will automatically restart a new simulation of the state of the solar corona using the latest solar magnetogram as the input and the result of the previous simulation as the initial condition for the new one. A prediction of the realistic three-dimensional (3D) and time-dependent distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind parameters throughout the solar corona and inner heliosphere is one of the most challenging scientific problems in space physics. The task becomes even more difficult if the simulation is routinely performed in real-time, on a daily basis, with the latest magnetogram data incorporated as an input for the model together with the capability to validate the model using a continuous flow of observational data. The Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) model of the solar corona, already available in the CCMC, will be used for the effort. To validate the model, synthetic extreme ultraviolet images will be produced to compare with the images as observed with NASA satellite instruments. The coupled model prediction will be continuously validated with the solar wind parameters measured by the ACE satellite. The intellectual merit of the research is the development of a research-based model that can be used to better understand the propagation of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), both in real-time when CME signatures are observed in coronograph images, and for historical analysis and research of interesting events. The broader impact of the project is that a new generation of global models of the Sun-heliosphere system will be delivered to the CCMC to enable broad use by the solar-heliophysics community. The project will involve the training of a junior female postdoctoral researcher and will enhance infrastructure for research and education.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
The main outcome from the project is that we created a system to simulate the current state of the solar corona and inner heliosphere in the real time.
As the prototype we have used the existing and operating WSA-ENLIL real-time simulation system, which is successfully employed for years to describe the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field in the inner heliosphere (above the heliocentric distances of 0.1 AU to 3-5 AU). Based on the existing infrastructure developed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at the Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA), which allows us regularly (once a day or more frequently) download the latest GONG magnetigram and automatically run the simulation code daily with the use of the latest magnetogram as the boundary condition at the photosphere level, we developed a new fully automatic simulation system.
The distinctive features of the newly developed system are the following:
- It describes not only the Inner Heliosphere (IH), but also the Solar Corona (SC) with the SC module, the Alfven-Wave-turbulence-based Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM), of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) of the University of Michigan.
-In time-dependent mode it works faster-than-Real time (AWSoM-R) using a specially developed Field-Line-Threaded model for the Low Solar Corona,
-It describes self-consistently the evolution and absorption of the Alfven Wave turbulence throughout the Solar Corona and conversion of its energy into coronal heating and powering and accelerating the solar wind. If desired, in the Inner heliosphere, in parallel with the ENLIL or instead of it, the IH may be also simulated with the AWSoM module of the SWMF, just extending the quantitative and self-consistent description of the Alfven Wave turbulence to the IH domain.
-It allows, if desired, to superpose the observed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) on the background evolving solution in real time, using the Eruptive Event Generator based on the Gibson-Low configuration (EEGGL)
Some technical detail may be provided. The simulation restarts daily using the simulated state of the SC and IH obtained the day before as the initial condition. The latest GONG magnetogram is used as the boundary condition. The update to the state corresponding to the time of the used magnetogram requires ~13 hours of simulation on cluster hilo-x at the CCMC (about 160 processors are used). Within 5 hours more the "forecast" run advances the solution at 1 AU (in IH only) for approximately 48 hours and predicts the IMF file in GSE coordinate system at the Earth location. For approximately 5 hours the comparison with the current IMF file from ACE (or DISCVR) may be performed and the input parameters for the next session may be adjusted, if desired. With such schedule the solution in the SC is up to 24 hours behind the real time, while the forecast at 1 AU is not less than 24 hours ahead the real time. To incorporate CMEs in real time more powerful computational resources are demanded.
Last Modified: 12/04/2017
Modified by: Igor Sokolov
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