| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | August 2, 2012 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | August 2, 2012 |
| Award Number: | 1219833 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Eric DeWeaver
edeweave@nsf.gov (703)292-8527 AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | August 15, 2012 |
| End Date: | July 31, 2015 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $144,624.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $144,624.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
3100 MARINE ST Boulder CO US 80309-0001 (303)492-6221 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
3100 Marine Street Boulder CO US 80303-1058 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
This project uses model simulations to study the effect of land use and land cover change on the climate of the eastern US since the mid-1600s. The project is based on a new dataset, the "Reconstructed Historical Land Cover and Biophysical Parameter" dataset, which uses 36 land-cover categories to describe landcover over the eastern US (east of the 97W meridian, which runs through Kansas) for four representative years: 1650, 1850, 1920, and 1992. The period from 1650 to 1920 saw extensive deforestation and conversion to cropland, which was followed by partial reforestation from 1920 to 1992, all of which is captured in the historical land cover dataset. The change from forest to grassland or cropland can affect climate in several ways. For example, the higher albedo of crops and grasses, which are lighter in color than forests and thus reflects back more incident sunlight, could cause a reduction in surface temperature. The historical land cover dataset also documents a reduction in wetlands, which could be consequential for rainfall. Simulations using a land-atmosphere regional climate model are used to assess the impact of the different land surface conditions on climatic conditions (primarily temperature and rainfall) in the eastern US climate.
Research on the climatic effects of land use and land cover change is of societal as well as scientific interest, as it can help us to identify human-induced climate changes which are likely to require strategies for adaptation and mitigation. In addition to the societal value of its research findings, the project will have educational broader impacts through the outreach activities of the principal investigators at local middle and high scools. The project will also support a graduate student, thereby providing education and traning for the next generation of the scientific workforce in this research area.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Climate can be defined as the statistical description of all the elements in the climate system (including the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere), including both the mean state and any variations over time. Climate change is defined as a shift in the statistical description of climate. Climate change includes radiative, biophysical, biogeochemical, and biogeographic effects. “Human-caused climate change” is a change resulting from one or more of the human climate forcings.
As Earth’s population has grown, human climate forcings have become significant on the local, regional and global scales. These human forcings include greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., CO2, methane, CFCs), aerosol emissions and deposition [e.g., black carbon (soot), sulfates, and reactive nitrogen], and changes in land use and land cover. A number of these forcings are spatially heterogeneous and include the effect of aerosols on clouds and associated precipitation. Most, if not all, of these human radiative, biophysical, biogeochemical, and biogeographic influences on regional and global climate will continue to be of concern during the coming decades. The use of a global average surface temperature is a grossly inadequate metric to diagnose the distributed human forcings, including from changes in land use and cover.
Our study focused specifically on the role of changes in land use and land cover. Land use change is confirmed to be a first order climate forcing on the local and regional scale. Land use affects the reflection of sunlight from the surface, the strength of the wind near the surface, and the flux of heat and water vapor into the atmosphere.
Our NSF sponsored work has further confirmed the importance of this aspect of the climate system.
All human modified landscapes should, therefore, be expected to play a major role in local and regional weather and climate. This human effect on the climate system has been underestimated in past assessments of climate change including the IPCC and USA national climate assessments.
Last Modified: 09/17/2015
Modified by: Roger A Pielke
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