The project integrated the expertise of investigators from multiple institutions to conduct interdisciplinary research to understand hydrologic, economic, ecologic, and human behavioral dimensions of sustainable water management. The research used hydro-economic optimization approaches to explore management strategies that account for the value of water for the built environment, agriculture, and natural eco-systems under various climate change, economic, population, sea level rise, and land use planning scenarios. This required better understanding of future climate and the effects of too much and too little water on cities, agriculture, and ecosystem services. Flooding, water scarcity, and seawater intrusion affect Southeast Florida cities, while water scarcity and high water tables impact agriculture. Ecosystem services including carbon storage and fisheries are also water-dependent. 

The economic values of agricultural and urban water supplies, urban flood damage, and environmental flows that sustain carbon storage and fisheries were developed from numerous data sources. Following testing of the optimization approach, it was used to examine tradeoffs between water supply, flood mitigation, and maintenance of ecosystem functions under existing conditions and different possible future conditions, including more or less rainfall, higher temperatures, and sea level rise. Under existing conditions, due to large differences in rainfall from year-to-year and due to water storage constraints in Lake Okeechobee, there are significant tradeoffs between maintaining reliable water supplies for urban and agricultural sectors, and maintaining ecosystems. Under an increased rainfall scenario, system-wide expected economic losses decrease significantly, except for the risk of urban flooding. Under scenarios of reduced rainfall and increased evapotranspiration, the system’s ability to meet water demands significantly degrades, thus intensifying tradeoffs. Results also point to vulnerability of the Everglades Agricultural Area to climate change, even in the absence of Everglades ecosystem restoration targets. Sea level rise limits the ability to move water through the system without increasing flood risk. 

Managing environmental flows in a future of changes in freshwater availability due to climate change and the increasing water demands of people requires understanding of how ecological systems respond to changing flows. We found that freshwater flows can have a major influence on the ecology of economically-valuable coastal fish and fisheries that depend on estuaries, including their diversity, abundance, use of space, movements, and distributions. Changing flows affect salinity, nutrient flows, and other important factors such as dissolved oxygen, as well as causing changes to habitat quality and quantity. 

Coastal wetlands are also important sites of organic carbon storage. For a few thousand years, coastal wetlands have expanded under stable sea level, and have provided ecosystem services of high ecological and socio-economic significance including carbon storage and fisheries. Whether coastal mangrove forests will survive under accelerating sea level rise depends on their ability to gain and maintain soil elevation and/or migrate landward. We found that carbon accumulation drives soil elevation in southwestern Florida mangroves. The sustainability of these wetlands depends on the balance between soil organic matter production and preservation. Our results showed reductions in carbon storage where more sea water is invading coastal mangroves. Soil elevation was keeping up with sea level rise rates over the last 50 to 100 years, but has not kept pace with the faster sea level rise in the last decade. 

Outreach to South Florida stakeholder groups occurred in several different forms. First, there was direct engagement with key stakeholder groups. Direct engagement with agricultural stakeholders revealed the complex and multifaceted relationship between agricultural activities and the regional water system that is expected to become more complex due to potential climate change impacts. Insights were also gathered from examining local citizens’ policy preferences for Everglades restoration and sea level rise adaptation. New social science experimental approaches were implemented to better understand the impacts of information type and uncertainty on risk perception and decision making, particularly in the context of sea level rise impacts on communities. These insights can support adaptive management strategies in South Florida and elsewhere. 

The project fostered ongoing agency and stakeholder collaborations and contributed to managers’ understanding of the integrated water-human-climate system of South Florida. These connections will enhance the relevance of research findings for regional policy. 

Outreach activities also included lectures, websites, webinars, citizen science activities, and presentations at conferences, workshops, and schools. 

Finally, the project looked at the process of conducting interdisciplinary team science itself and published the results for the benefit of researchers doing similar work and for the benefit of all people facing complex challenges that require multi- and inter-disciplinary perspectives. 

The project published nearly 40 peer-reviewed journal articles through 2018. Master’s theses and Ph.D. dissertations have also been published. The project supported the research and professional development of a high school intern, more than 15 undergraduate students, 21 graduate students, and 8 postdoctoral researchers.

Last Modified: 03/31/2019
Modified by: Kenneth Broad