| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | January 14, 2011 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | January 14, 2011 |
| Award Number: | 1043125 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Anjuli Bamzai
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | January 15, 2011 |
| End Date: | December 31, 2014 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $520,097.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $520,097.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
2601 WOLF VILLAGE WAY RALEIGH NC US 27695-0001 (919)515-2444 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
2601 WOLF VILLAGE WAY RALEIGH NC US 27695-0001 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
The project aims to study the dry-wet-dry-wet Lake Victoria Basin Wave Structure (LVB-WS) in the distribution of rainfall across the central region of East Africa. This is the most dominant feature of the climate over Lake Victoria basin (LVB). Very few studies have previously been devoted to investigate the detailed climatology and interannual variability, the response to climate change and the causes of this climatic feature.
The investigators will address this knowledge gap to perform the following complementally research activities:
(i) LVB-WS Climatology & interannual variability: Produce improved and detailed description of the climatology and interannual variability of the LVB-WS using a combination of analyses based on in-situ and satellite data sets;
(ii) Response of the LVB-WS to climate change: Perform and analyse the community Regional Climate Model-version 3 coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (RegCM3-POM) regional climate model simulations over LVB under present and future climate scenarios to infer climate change projections of the LVB-WS and understand the relative role of the physical processes responsible for the projected changes;
(iii) Physical mechanisms responsible for the development & evolution of the LVB-WS: Conduct mechanistic numerical simulations based on the regional RegCM3-POM lake-atmosphere coupled model to determine the causes of the LVB-WS. These mechanisms include the role of regional mountain ridges, the role of the dominant climatic modes of circulation and thermodynamics of Lake Victoria, and climatic effects associated with changes in the large-scale background circulation of the regional climate system.
Broader impacts of the proposed research are educational and in the potential to advance our knowledge and understanding of the coupled variability of Lake Victoria hydrodynamics and the basin-wide climate. The project will contribute to several high profile climate programs and activities related to LVB such as the international effort CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) and the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) assessment. Collaboration with African climate centers and other international organizations will promote improvement of climate information products to inform policy decisions in the LVB region.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Intellectual Merit: The project has produced 5 peer reviewed publications; 4 conference papers and publications; 5 science reports.
Peer Reviewed Publications
1. Sun, X., Lian Xie, F. H. M. Semazzi, and B. Liu, “A Numerical Investigation of he Precipitation over Lake Victoria Basin Using a Coupled Atmosphere-Lake Limited-Area Model,” Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2014, Article ID 960924, 15 pages, 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/960924.
2. Smith, A., and F, H. M. Semazzi, “The Role of the Dominant Modes of Precipitation Variability over Eastern Africa in Modulating the Hydrology of Lake Victoria,”Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2014, Article ID 516762, 11 pages, 2014. doi:10.1155/2014/516762.
3. Argent, R., X. Sun, F. Semazzi, L.Xie and B. Liu, (Accepted; "in press") The development of a customization framework for the WRF model over the Lake Victoria Basin, Eastern Africa on seasonal timescales. Advances in Meteorology.
4. Sun, X., L. Xie, F. Semazzi, and B. Liu, 2015: Effect of Lake Surface
Temperature on the Spatial Distribution and Intensity of the Precipitation over Lake Victoria Basin. Monthly Weather Review. "in press".
5. Semazzi, H. F. M., 2011: Framework for climate services in developing countries. Climate Research, Vol. 47: 145–150.
Major Science Reports
1. Semazzi, Fredrick, Sam Benedict, and Peter J. van Eleven, 2012: A Regional Hydroclimate Project for Lake Victoria Basin (HYVIC), GEWEX NEWS, Vol. 22, No. 2, pages 9-12.
2. Semazzi, Fredrick, Kara Smith and Lian Xie (2012) Demonstration Study for the integration of Climate Change Projections Information into the Planning for the Hydroelectric Power Industry in East Africa. CLIVAR Exchanges No. 60, Vol. 17, No. 3.
3. Semazzi et al (East African Community-Report), 2011. Enhancing Safety of Navigation and Efficient Exploitation of Natural Resources over Lake Victoria and its Basin by Strengthening Meteorological Services (Authors: Semazzi, F. (Lead), S. Yuter, J. Kiwanuka-Tondo, L. Xie, C. Burleyson, B. Liu, K. Smith, P. Waniha (North Carolina State University); L. Rose (Atmospheric Technology Services Company, Norman, OK); R. Barakiza (Institut Geographique du Burundi), P. Ambenje (Kenya, Meteorology Department), A. Twahirwa (Rwanda Meteorological Service), H. Kabelwa (Tanzania Meteorological Agency), R. Wesonga (Uganda Meteorological Department), L. Ogallo, and J. Mutemi (University of Nairobi and ICPAC, Kenya), and F. Kirudde (Uganda, UMEME) [http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/HYVIC/]. http://climlab.meas.ncsu.edu/Final_Report_LVBC.pdf]..
4. Hydroclimate project for Lake Victoria (HYVIC) Regional Hydroclimate Project (RHP) Science Plan(http://www.gewex.org/gewexnews/May2012.pdf).
Main Findings
The WRF-POM coupled regional climate moeld produces much more realistic simulation of the lake surface temperature (LST) pattern than simple traditional formulation of Lake Victoria. With highly asymmetric and more complicated LST distribution the rainfall from the WRF-POM coupled regional climate model which exhibits greater details and it is in closer agreement with the observed rainfall. We infer that the coupled model formulation is a pre-requisite for realistic regional climate predictions and projections. The results further show that calibration (customization) of regional climate models must pay special attention to the region over the...
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