| NSF Org: |
EAR Division Of Earth Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | September 21, 2010 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | September 21, 2010 |
| Award Number: | 1038925 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Thomas Torgersen
EAR Division Of Earth Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | October 1, 2010 |
| End Date: | September 30, 2016 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $325,309.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $325,309.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
1600 SW 4TH AVE PORTLAND OR US 97201-5508 (503)725-9900 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
1600 SW 4TH AVE PORTLAND OR US 97201-5508 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | CR-Water Sustainability & Clim |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): | |
| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Oregon (UO), and Portland State University (PSU) are collaborating on a comprehensive, highly integrated examination of hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic factors in the Willamette River Basin. The team is applying Envision, a theoretical framework developed at OSU, to evaluate how climate change, population growth, and economic growth will alter the availability and the use of water in the Willamette River Basin. Envision provides a computing environment in which state-of-the-art hydrological, ecological, and socio-economic models can interact synergistically. Envision also contains a multi-agent-based modeling component that enables it to represent the impact of human decision-making on landscape change. The team is addressing the following objectives:
(1) Identify and quantify the linkages and feedbacks among hydrologic, ecological, and socioeconomic dimensions of the water system.
(2) Determine where and when climate change and human activities will create water scarcities.
(3) Evaluate a broad range of strategies that could enable this region to prevent, mitigate, or adapt to water scarcities.
(4) Create a transferable method of predicting where climate change will create water scarcities in other regions and where those scarcities would exert the strongest impact on human society.
The team is collaborating with public officials, resource managers, and other stakeholders with strong interest in protecting ecosystems and water resources. Commissioners from the thirteen counties that make up the Willamette River Basin, as well as representatives of the Governor's Office, the Oregon Water Resources Department, the Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, are involved to help to understand their needs and perspectives, to identify scenarios, and to interpret results. Working with these public officials, the team will help them translate the results of the research into planning and decision making processes.
The team is preparing to disseminate Envision through some UNESCO HELP basins. In the outyears, the team will work with the UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, to transfer Envision to researchers in UNESCO HELP basins, possibly including the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and the Olifants River in South Africa.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
From its snowy headwaters in the Oregon Cascades to its green valley floor, the Willamette River Basin serves the water needs of 70% of Oregon’s population, supplying ecosystems, and an economy that depend on its abundant water supplies throughout the year. Currently, the Willamette River Basin is a water-rich region, but with a warming climate and increasing socio-economic pressures that may not always be the case. As these pressures continue to impact the Willamette River Basin, we ask, “When and where will climate change and human activity create water scarcities in the Willamette River Basin?” This is the key question motivating the Willamette Water 2100 (WW2100) project. The key findings are itemized below:
Finding 1:
Climate change is the primary driver of water scarcity in the mountainous uplands that are the source area for water supply in the Willamette Basin, particularly during the dry season.
Finding 2:
In the lowlands where urban, agricultural, and instream environmental water demands are greatest, human decisions are the dominant driver of water scarcity especially during years of low natural supply. Water laws, policies, and costs related to water storage and conveyance strongly affect spatial and temporal differences in access to water
Finding 3:
Summer water storage by the federal dams on the Willamette River Basin provide the biggest single mechanism to mitigate potential water scarcity over the next 90 years; however, reservoir management will need to adapt to changes in seasonal flows and downstream water needs.
Finding 4:
Different tributary basins will respond differently to climate change, population and income growth differently, depending on local differences in land use, geology and physiography.
Finding 5:
The WW2100 stakeholder engagement process found that individuals were motivated to participate by previous positive experiences with members of the project team, the project’s transdisciplinary approach, and to gain knowledge about water resources, especially under scenarios of future change.
Last Modified: 12/06/2016
Modified by: Scott A Wells
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