Award Abstract # 1007999
Workshop on Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades; Miami, Florida; January 11-14, 2010

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI
Initial Amendment Date: January 11, 2010
Latest Amendment Date: January 11, 2010
Award Number: 1007999
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: David Verardo
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: January 15, 2010
End Date: December 31, 2011 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $10,000.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $10,000.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2010 = $10,000.00
History of Investigator:
  • Amy Clement (Principal Investigator)
    aclement@rsmas.miami.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of Miami
1251 MEMORIAL DR
CORAL GABLES
FL  US  33146-2509
(305)421-4089
Sponsor Congressional District: 27
Primary Place of Performance: University of Miami
1251 MEMORIAL DR
CORAL GABLES
FL  US  33146-2509
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
27
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): KXN7HGCF6K91
Parent UEI: VNZZYCJ55TC4
NSF Program(s): Paleoclimate
Primary Program Source: 01001011DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 0000, OTHR
Program Element Code(s): 153000
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

This project helps support a workshop entitled "Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades" at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science on January 11-14, 2010.

Specifically, $10,000 is awarded to support the goal of bringing together researchers from different communities who have shared interests in predicting the climate of the coming decades. This includes researchers involved in developing prediction systems, understanding mechanisms of decadal and forced climate variability, and assessing the needs of potential users.

The participants will include seasoned researchers, new investigators, and students. In this manner, an open and lively exchange of views on climate science will be enabled.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Clement, A; Kirtman, B; Pirani, A "CLIMATE LITERACY AS A FOUNDATION FOR PROGRESS IN PREDICTING AND ADAPTING TO THE CLIMATE OF THE COMING DECADES" BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY , v.92 , 2011 , p.633 View record at Web of Science 10.1175/2010BAMS3161.

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

There is general scientific consensus that because of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases the world will be warmer and sea level will be higher, on average, by the middle of this century. However, while there may be robust projections for anthropogenic influence in a particular region, it is entirely likely that the climate in any given year or even decade between now and mid century could be quite different from the projected anthropogenically forced trend because of natural fluctuations of the Earth system unrelated to greenhouse gases. Given these dual “natural” and anthropogenic influences on climate, how can society (from the individual to the corporate scale) best adapt and plan mitigation strategies on these different timescales?

 

Researchers developing climate prediction systems, studying decision-making processes, and developing applications of climate information convened a meeting at the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science of the University of Miami to discuss three general topics: (1) the status of decadal climate prediction efforts, (2) assessing user needs of decadal timescale climate information, and (3) constraints on decision making. Here we summarize the main points made during presentations and discussions for each of these topics and suggest ways forward in preparing for the climate of the coming decades. Presentations from the workshop are available online at www.clivar.org/rsmas_decadal.php.

 

 

Status of decadal climate prediction efforts:

 

The decadal prediction problem represents a new “frontier” in climate modeling that includes a great deal of scientific uncertainty. The grand challenge of decadal climate prediction is to quantify sources of climate predictability on interannual to decadal timescales, and to provide probabilistic regional forecasts with sufficient skill for planning and decision-making purposes. Overall, while there is considerable optimism that decadal predictions may provide useful information, significant challenges remain and the community as a whole recognizes the importance of emphasizing realistic expectations in terms of both what is currently achievable and the challenges that lie ahead. These include understanding the sources and mechanisms of decadal variability, quantifying and identifying sources of uncertainty including the limit of predictability, and detecting and attributing the forced signal of anthropogenic radiative forcing from low frequency natural climate fluctuations. In terms of designing decadal prediction systems, issues include how to design observational networks for forecast initialization and monitoring, how to measure forecast skill in light of the limited observational record, determining what are the best initialization strategies for decadal prediction and how to address model biases during initialization. Crucially for users of decadal prediction information, the major concerns are:  How to develop models that provide information that can be used at regional scales as well as in application models; and how much additional regional predictive skill can be obtained by resolving regional “natural” decadal variability mechanisms in addition to the climate change produced by changes in external forcing.

 

 

Assessing user needs for decadal climate information:

 

Many different sectors, including insurance, water resources, agriculture, and public lands and marine ecosystems, are highly sensitive to climate variability on different timescales. In each of these sectors, there are existing tools for decision making in which climate information is explicitly included, most commonly for seasonal to interannual applications. However, there are d...

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