ABSTRACT

The primary objectives of this research are: (a) to numerically simulate important weather features of the West African monsoon system including, the African and tropical easterly Jets, long-lived mesoscale convective systems, and tropical cyclogenesis in the Eastern Atlantic; (b) to apply data assimilation for better quantifying and correcting model biases as they relate to numerical simulation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and tropical cyclone genesis; and (c) to conduct sensitivity studies using different microphysical schemes in the numerical model when simulating cases with Saharan Air Layer (SAL) outbreaks. This research will advance the understanding of the MCSs transition processes as well as help identify the strengths and weaknesses of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as it relates to simulating the West African monsoon.

Intellectual Merits: This project will: (1) Undertake modeling studies of tropical disturbances that exited the African Coastline and formed Tropical Storm Debby, and Hurricane Helene, which originated from MCSs in West Africa during the 2006 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) period. (2) Incorporate extensive upstream in situ measurements (e.g., high resolution surface and upper air observation networks) into data assimilation experiments for selected cases from 2006 and to validate the simulation results with downstream aircraft measurements (i.e., NASA DC-8 and NOAA G-IV and P-3 aircraft) (3) Undertake high-resolution modeling investigations of MCSs over continental areas and their transition to oceanic environments under the influence of the SAL. (4) Implement the WRF model at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar, Senegal for research purposes.

Broader Impacts: The proposed activity is important in understanding tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Atlantic, as well as improving the prediction of these storms. This research will enhance the partnership and increase the human, technical, and physical capacity, between Florida Institute Technology, Howard University, and Cheikh Anta Diop University for undertaking educational and research efforts in the area of weather and regional climate processes. This project will fund two Ph.D. level graduate students, one at Florida Institute of Technology and one at Howard University. On the human scale, students from traditionally underrepresented groups (African and Hispanic Americans) will have the unique opportunity to work with data from an international field experiment and at the same time, the project will directly increase human capacity in the atmospheric sciences for West African researchers. There will be an effort to extend beyond research as well as education and address operational issues of weather predictions using mesoscale models. Finally, this project will open up a new chapter in weather prediction in West Africa, where mesoscale models currently are not used in weather prediction; instead, forecasts in these regions are currently based on numerical weather forecasting models that are run in either Europe or the United States. The capability to run their own models and adapt them to the characteristics of their region will significantly improve African forecasting abilities.

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