Award Abstract # 0842618
The Climate Memory of Tropical Cyclones: Dimensions, Magnitude, Mechanisms for Generation and Removal, and Implications

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: January 27, 2009
Latest Amendment Date: January 27, 2009
Award Number: 0842618
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Anjuli Bamzai
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: February 1, 2009
End Date: January 31, 2013 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $418,524.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $418,524.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2009 = $418,524.00
History of Investigator:
  • Robert Hart (Principal Investigator)
    rhart@fsu.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Florida State University
874 TRADITIONS WAY
TALLAHASSEE
FL  US  32306-0001
(850)644-5260
Sponsor Congressional District: 02
Primary Place of Performance: Florida State University
874 TRADITIONS WAY
TALLAHASSEE
FL  US  32306-0001
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
02
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): JF2BLNN4PJC3
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics
Primary Program Source: 01000910DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 0000, OTHR
Program Element Code(s): 574000
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

This project will comprehensively define the climate footprint ("memory") of a tropical cyclone (TC) in time and space, explaining many fascinating and important aspects of the footprint. Specifically, the investigators will (i) define the temporal and spatial extent of the structure of the TC footprint and its variability, (ii) define the mechanisms for TC footprint generation and removal and the variability of those mechanisms geographically and temporally, (iii) quantify the role of TCs in climate through aggregate energy measures implied by the aggregate footprint, and (iv) compare the TC aggregate energy measures to other climate transport mechanisms, such as the mean meridional circulation and baroclinic activity. The investigators will utilize the varying reanalysis datasets and the new Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) coupled reanalysis to quantify the uncertainty in the footprint magnitude and the driving physical mechanisms, acknowledging the inherent limitations of such datasets.

This work will bridge a major gap that exists between our understanding of "weather" (in this case TCs) and climate, when no such gap exists in nature. The assumption has been historically that the large-scale impacts of TCs can be (at best) broadly parameterized in Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and that the large scale climate simulation will not suffer substantially. The research will in detail qualify and quantify this impact and that assumption's validity. The aggregate role of TCs in climate as a whole will be quantified.

The broader impacts of this project include an improved understanding of the TC role in climate. The ability to forecast floods, droughts, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is dependent upon the accurate simulation of the upper ocean and atmospheric boundary conditions, and the atmospheric teleconnection patterns that result. The project will shine a light on the overall potential limits of climate predictability as induced by the TC footprint. It will train graduate students and ensure wide dissemination of results and findings in conferences, workshops, seminars, publications, and websites.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Hart, RE "An inverse relationship between aggregate northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and subsequent winter climate" GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , v.38 , 2011 View record at Web of Science 10.1029/2010GL04561
Hart, Robert E.; "An inverse relationship between aggregate northern hemisphere tropical cyclone activity and subsequent winter climate" GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , v.38 , 2011 , p.1-5
Ryan E. Truchelut and Robert E. Hart "Quantifying the possible existence of undocumented Atlantic warm-core cyclones in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis data" Geophysical Research Letters , v.38 , 2011 10.1029/2011GL046756
Schenkel, Benjamin A.; Hart, Robert E. "An Examination of Tropical Cyclone Position, Intensity, and Intensity Life Cycle within Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets" JOURNAL OF CLIMATE , v.25 , 2012 , p.3453-3475
Schenkel, Benjamin and Hart, Robert "MERRA Special Collection: An Examination of Tropical Cyclone Position and Intensity Differences within Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets" Journal of Climate , 2012 10.1175/2011JCLI4208.1
Truchelut, RE; Hart, RE "Quantifying the possible existence of undocumented Atlantic warm-core cyclones in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis data" GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , v.38 , 2011 View record at Web of Science 10.1029/2011GL04675
Truchelut, Ryan E.; Hart, Robert E. "Quantifying the possible existence of undocumented Atlantic warm-core cyclones in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis data" GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS , v.38 , 2011 , p.1-7

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