| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | December 3, 2008 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | February 4, 2011 |
| Award Number: | 0830916 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
William (Bill) C. Keene
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | January 1, 2009 |
| End Date: | December 31, 2011 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $216,000.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $216,000.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2010 = $72,000.00 FY 2011 = $72,000.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
1033 MASSACHUSETTS AVE STE 3 CAMBRIDGE MA US 02138-5366 (617)495-5501 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
1033 MASSACHUSETTS AVE STE 3 CAMBRIDGE MA US 02138-5366 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Atmospheric Chemistry |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001011DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001112DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
The work aims to establish accurate top-down estimates of the surface sources and sinks for important greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon monoxide (CO) over North America, and address individual science questions, particularly with regard to the causes of variability on diurnal, seasonal, and interannual timescales that underlie these estimates. Collocated airborne and tower-based measurements of these gases for selected months in the period 2003-2011 will be analyzed using a receptor-oriented Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model adapted to flux inversion work. The analysis will provide an assessment tool for independent bottom-up emission estimates from existing inventories. The availability of reliable transport fields and a conjoint analysis of the four gases will be critical to the success of the study.
Human-induced changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are a major societal concern discussed in the press, in Congress, and by ordinary citizens every day. Currently there is no validation for inventory-based estimates of U.S. and North American contributions to this global problem, and there are indications that these estimates may be in error.
The work will decisively improve this situation by providing new assessments based on strong physical and observational constraints. The data, results, and software will be made publicly available during the research, and the principal investigators will engage in public outreach by communicating the results that are pertinent to the public debate on climate change.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Collaborative Research: Improving Estimated Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases over North America Using a Receptor-Oriented Modeling Framework and In-situ Atmospheric Measurements
This study was intended to define how to determine rates of emission of important Greenhouse Gases and pollutants in urban areas and in areas of intensive agriculture, using measurements of concentrations of target gases (methane, carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere. In collaboration with our partners at AER, Inc, we constructed a very high resolution computer model to simulate the measurements made from tall towers in the Midwest, from aircraft in California, and ground based data from Salt Lake City and Boston. The results showed that emissions from agricultural areas were significantly larger than assumed in EPA inventories. We also showed that it is presently possible to detect changes in emissions over time from urban areas with a sensitivity of about 15%, almost good enough to use this approach as part of a compliance verification framework for regional and national Greenhouse Gas regulatory regimes.
Three figures show examples. Figure 1 a, b shows model results for the “dome” of CO2 over Salt Lake City, derived from automobiles and home heating/cooling, and the comparison of the model with observations in October, 2006 (Source: McKain, K., S. C. Wofsy, T. Nehrkorn, J. Eluszkiewicz, J. R. Ehleringer, and B. B. Stephens, Assessment of ground-based atmospheric observations for verification of greenhouse gas emissions from an urban region, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., doi 10.1073/pnas.1116645109, 2012). Figure 2 shows the inferred spatial distribution of emissions for N2O (nitrous oxide) from agricultural regions of the US (Source: Miller, S., E. A. Kort, A. Hirsch, E. Dlugokencky, A. E. Andrews, A. Michalak, H. Tian, and S. C. Wofsy, Regional sources of nitrous oxide over the United States: Seasonal variation and spatial distribution, J. Geophys. Res. 117, D06310, doi:10.1029/2011JD016951, 2012).
Last Modified: 05/20/2012
Modified by: Steven C Wofsy
