| NSF Org: |
OPP Office of Polar Programs (OPP) |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | April 16, 2007 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | August 4, 2010 |
| Award Number: | 0635739 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Diana Nemergut
OPP Office of Polar Programs (OPP) GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | August 1, 2007 |
| End Date: | July 31, 2012 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $682,842.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $682,842.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2008 = $134,999.00 FY 2009 = $136,239.00 FY 2010 = $269,312.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
216 MONTANA HALL BOZEMAN MT US 59717 (406)994-2381 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
216 MONTANA HALL BOZEMAN MT US 59717 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | ANT Organisms & Ecosystems |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.078 |
ABSTRACT
The complex effects of environmental variation cascade through trophic levels and are integrated by top predators. Thus, studies of predator population dynamics should be useful for integrating and understanding linkages between physical and biological ecosystem components. A breeding population of Weddell seals, a prominent Antarctic apex predator associated with fast ice, has been intensively studied in Erebus Bay at the southern extent of the Ross Sea since 1968. The proposed research couples synthesis and modeling of long-term data for Weddell seals with multi-decadal data on temporal variation in climate, marine, and sea-ice conditions in the Ross Sea. The research, in part, will rigorously evaluate a variety of hypotheses regarding effects of environmental variation on life-history evolution and population dynamics. Additional details regarding how physical drivers influence ecosystem dynamics from the bottom-up will be obtained by conducting field studies of how seal body mass, a surrogate for annual variation in marine food resources, varies among years and individuals. The study will (1) use a combination of mark-recapture analysis of vital rates and matrix population modeling to evaluate hypotheses regarding how fitness is affected by temporal environmental variation and (2) collect longitudinal and cross-sectional data on body mass dynamics for mother-pup pairs to evaluate relationships between environmental variation, body mass, and population dynamics.
Intellectual Merit - Theory predicts that life histories should evolve to minimize effects of environmental variation on fitness by favoring traits that buffer important vital rates from temporal variation. The proposed research will test this prediction using methods that consider covariation among vital rates and the possibilities of density-dependence and an open-population structure. The proposed work on body-mass dynamics will increase our understanding of linkages between physical and biological processes, and allow more informed prediction of the impacts of future climate change on marine mammal populations.
Broader Impacts -.This study is uniquely positioned to provide data on how a marine mammal has been, and will be, affected by environmental variation, including massive icebergs, which are expected to be more prevalent with a warming climate. Continuation of the database will aid diverse research teams, and be valuable for interpreting the influence of developing commercial fisheries in the Ross Sea,. This aspect of the research will contribute to the mission of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. The study also will provide professional training to young researchers, and the data and methods will be used in lecture and laboratory exercises in several graduate and undergraduate courses. Researchers will communicate from the field with K-12 students at ~50 schools throughout the U.S. and follow-up with in-school visits at a subset of schools. Opportunities to experience field research will be made available to interested citizen scientists, teachers, students, and artists.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
The Study System
The Erebus Bay population of Weddell seals in Antarctica’s Ross Sea is the most southerly breeding population of mammal in the world and has been intensively studied since 1968. The long-term database, which includes data for over 20,000 marked individuals, contains detailed population information that provides an excellent opportunity to study linkages between environmental conditions and demographic processes. The population’s location is of special interest as the Ross Sea is one of the most productive areas of the Southern Ocean, the most pristine marine environment remaining on the planet, and, in striking contrast to the Antarctic Peninsula and Arctic regions, is undergoing a gradual lengthening of the sea-ice season.
The Research
We continued the Erebus Bay Weddell seal studies from 2007 through 2011, thus maintaining the integrity of the long-term database by completing annual seal tagging and mark-recapture surveys. The recent data were combined with the existing database and used in a series of analyses that took advantage of recent developments in mark-recapture methods to evaluate a variety of hypotheses about population structure, stability and regulation; demographic variation and buffering; and life-history evolution. Results indicated that the population has been self-sustaining, demographically buffered from environmental variation, and numerically stable in recent decades. Complimentary studies of mother-offspring mass dynamics have revealed maternal body mass at parturition increases through the young and middle ages with evidence of senescent declines in body mass amongst the oldest ages. Additionally, maternal body mass at parturition was strongly influenced by environmental variations during the pregnancy period. These environmental and senescent related variations in maternal body mass, in turn, were correlated with maternal investment in offspring as indexed by pup parturition and weaning mass measurements. Mass measurements of multiple offspring produced by the same mothers also revealed evidence of consistent individual variation in size of offspring produced after accounting for age and environmental effects, suggesting considerable individual heterogeneity in reproductive performance.
Importance/Impact of the Research
Knowledge of mechanisms limiting or regulating Weddell seal populations contribute to understanding pinniped population dynamics and theory on population, community, and ecosystem patterns and processes. Such knowledge can be readily applied to effectively maintain assemblages of other large-mammal species and the ecological processes that they facilitate in both terrestrial and marine systems. Because high-latitude systems are especially sensitive to climate change, studies of linkages between environmental conditions and demographic processes in Antarctic populations also provide valuable insights about the ecological consequences of this global phenomenon. In addition, future monitoring of population status can be compared to baseline values established in recent decades, which will help assess potential effects of a recently established commercial fishery in the Ross Sea and thus contribute to the mission of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources.
Informal Education and Public Outreach
In order to enhance science literacy in the general public and improve understanding of the ecological processes that sustain the planet and human societies the project collaborated a video and multimedia specialist to developed an Informal Science Education program. The video journalist deployed to Antarctica with our research team for two field seasons, producing and delivering short-form videos and video podcasts through a...
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