| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | February 24, 2006 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | August 6, 2007 |
| Award Number: | 0603555 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Jay S. Fein
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | September 1, 2005 |
| End Date: | July 31, 2008 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $0.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $68,076.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
220 PAWTUCKET ST STE 400 LOWELL MA US 01854-3573 (978)934-4170 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
220 PAWTUCKET ST STE 400 LOWELL MA US 01854-3573 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | BE: NON-ANNOUNCEMENT RESEARCH |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of Central and Southwest Asia (CSW) Asia. During the 4-year period from approximately November 1998 through the end of 2002, the region experienced an exceptionally severe drought, with devastating societal and environmental consequences. The drought comprised the largest area of persistent precipitation deficits anywhere in the world during that period and was locally the most severe drought in over 50 years. Recent research suggests that large-scale, potentially predictable, climate variability is an important factor in CSW Asia precipitation and played a primary role in the recent drought. To explore the potential predictability provided by large-scale climate variability, the key mechanisms for deficits in the regional water cycle of CSW Asia are analyzed.
Due to the importance of synoptic storms as a precipitation-generation mechanism in CSW Asia, regional hydrologic anomalies are related to variations in the upper-level wind patterns. These regional atmospheric flow patterns, in turn, can be affected both from the west, by Atlantic variability, and from the east, by Indo-West Pacific variability. These connections and their potential predictability are examined through observational analysis of: (1) regional-scale fluctuations in river flows, (2) the links between these fluctuations and key features of the regional atmospheric circulation that control moisture transport into the region, and (3) the influence of large-scale climate variability on the regional circulation, with particular emphasis on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the eastern Indian Ocean convective maximum.
One of the goals of this research is the development of climate information relevant to regional relief effort and management and reconstruction of agriculture, water resources, and health systems.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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