NSF Org:	AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient:	COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date:	September 21, 2005
Latest Amendment Date:	September 21, 2005
Award Number:	0530884
Award Instrument:	Standard Grant
Program Manager:	Peter Milne AGS  Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO  Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date:	October 1, 2005
End Date:	March 31, 2007 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount:	$1,573,078.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date:	$1,573,078.00
Funds Obligated to Date:	FY 2005 = $177,389.00
History of Investigator:	Michael Montgomery (Principal Investigator) mtmontgo@nps.edu Michael Kirby (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office:	Colorado State University 601 S HOWES ST FORT COLLINS CO  US  80521-2807 (970)491-6355
Sponsor Congressional District:	02
Primary Place of Performance:	Colorado State University 601 S HOWES ST FORT COLLINS CO  US  80521-2807
Primary Place of Performance Congressional District:	02
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI):	LT9CXX8L19G1
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s):	OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH CMG, MATHEMATICAL GEOSCIENCES
Primary Program Source:	app-0105
Program Reference Code(s):	0000, 4444, 7232, 7303, OTHR
Program Element Code(s):	721500, 723200
Award Agency Code:	4900
Fund Agency Code:	4900
Assistance Listing Number(s):	47.050

ABSTRACT

This project studies hurricane dynamics with a particular emphasis on processes that affect the intensity of the tropical cyclone by mixing in moist air or dry air from different sources. Since penetration to the storm core or eye-wall is a nonlinear mixing problem, the investigators intend to apply methods from dynamical systems theory to help them understand transport and mixing processes, both on the scale of the eye/eye-wall system with its mesovortices in the eye-wall, and on the scale of the vortex as a whole. Part of the motivation for this work is that existing theory for maximum wind intensity, based on assumptions of axisymmetry can significantly under-predict the intensities seen in high-resolution numerical models of hurricanes. The formation of eye-wall mesovorticies and latent heat release from moist air transported asymmetrically into the hurricane eye-wall may help explain this difference.

The work to be done includes analyzing output from high-resolution hurricane simulations to determine distinguished hyperbolic orbits and their stable and unstable manifolds, implementing new methods for analyzing Lagrangian mixing, finding low-dimensional approximations to phases of hurricane evolution, and a search for a set of parameters that may be used to predict maximum wind intensity.

It is anticipated that the results of this theoretical work will help in the design of future field experiments, contribute to a better understanding of the processes responsible for fluctuations in hurricane intensity, and provide a basis for better predictions of hurricane intensity.

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