| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | December 21, 2004 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | November 19, 2007 |
| Award Number: | 0419618 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Anjuli Bamzai
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | January 1, 2005 |
| End Date: | December 31, 2011 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $380,171.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $696,514.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2006 = $126,709.00 FY 2007 = $129,080.00 FY 2008 = $316,343.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
874 TRADITIONS WAY TALLAHASSEE FL US 32306-0001 (850)644-5260 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
874 TRADITIONS WAY TALLAHASSEE FL US 32306-0001 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics |
| Primary Program Source: |
app-0106 app-0107 01000809DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
The principal investigator will further explore the ensemble/superensemble approach for numerical weather prediction using forecast experiments from a range of different models. A superensemble approach performs an ensemble average after the bias of the individual member models is removed, thereby increasing the skill of the prediction above that of individual model forecasts. The PI will extend this approach by using a suite of proxy models, which is called the synthetic superensemble component, to address the issue of seasonal climate anomalies. Variants of the synthetic superensemble will be explored with regard to hurricane landfall, track and intensity, as well as heavy rain forecasts and numerical weather prediction. Graduate students will participate in this research.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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