Award Abstract # 0352834
Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Measures of Active-Region Nonpotentiality

NSF Org: AGS
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient: THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA IN HUNTSVILLE
Initial Amendment Date: March 2, 2004
Latest Amendment Date: May 4, 2006
Award Number: 0352834
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Paul Bellaire
AGS
 Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: May 1, 2004
End Date: April 30, 2008 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $114,757.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $114,757.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2004 = $27,447.00
FY 2005 = $43,065.00

FY 2006 = $44,245.00
History of Investigator:
  • David Falconer (Principal Investigator)
    David.a.Falconer@nasa.gov
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of Alabama in Huntsville
301 SPARKMAN DR NW
HUNTSVILLE
AL  US  35805-1911
(256)824-2657
Sponsor Congressional District: 05
Primary Place of Performance: University of Alabama in Huntsville
301 SPARKMAN DR NW
HUNTSVILLE
AL  US  35805-1911
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
05
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): HB6KNGVNJRU1
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL
Primary Program Source: app-0104 
app-0105 

app-0106 
Program Reference Code(s): 0000, 9150, OTHR
Program Element Code(s): 152300
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

The overall objective of this proposal is to continue the development of quantitative measures of the Sun's active-region nonpotentiality from solar magnetograms, and to further evaluate these measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejections (CMEs). During the proposed three years' investigation, the PI would carry out three related projects to (1) refine the ranking of the PI's active-region nonpotentiality measures as CME predictors, (2) investigate the dependence of CME production on the evolution of active-region nonpotentiality, and (3) extend the PI's analysis procedure to vector magnetograms from SOLIS, as well as investigate active regions without sunspots.

Through clarification of the conditions that produce CMEs, this effort would contribute to better physical understanding of CMEs themselves, which in turn would contribute to understanding many other magnetically explosive astrophysical events, on other stars and in galaxies throughout the universe. This effort would provide broad benefits to society by leading to improved forecasting of Earthward CMEs, which will better allow defensive measures to be taken against the destructive space weather wrought by geoeffective CMEs.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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D.A. Falconer, R.L. Moore, and G.A. Gary "Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections:Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy over the Magnetic Twist Alone" ApJ , v.644 , 2006 , p.1258
D.A. Falconer, R.L. Moore, and G.A. Gary "Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms" Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics , v.69 , 2007 , p.86

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