NSF Org:	AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Recipient:	UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS
Initial Amendment Date:	February 25, 2003
Latest Amendment Date:	December 9, 2005
Award Number:	0237304
Award Instrument:	Standard Grant
Program Manager:	Robert M. Robinson AGS  Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO  Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date:	March 1, 2003
End Date:	February 28, 2007 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount:	$238,081.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date:	$274,457.00
Funds Obligated to Date:	FY 2003 = $238,081.00 FY 2004 = $4,590.00 FY 2005 = $31,786.00
History of Investigator:	Diane Portis (Principal Investigator) portis@atmos.uiuc.edu Walter Robinson (Former Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office:	University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 506 S WRIGHT ST URBANA IL  US  61801-3620 (217)333-2187
Sponsor Congressional District:	13
Primary Place of Performance:	University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 506 S WRIGHT ST URBANA IL  US  61801-3620
Primary Place of Performance Congressional District:	13
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI):	Y8CWNJRCNN91
Parent UEI:	V2PHZ2CSCH63
NSF Program(s):	LARGE-SCALE DYNAMIC METEOROLOG, Climate & Large-Scale Dynamics
Primary Program Source:	app-0103  app-0104  app-0105
Program Reference Code(s):	0000, 1527, 4444, OTHR
Program Element Code(s):	152700, 574000
Award Agency Code:	4900
Fund Agency Code:	4900
Assistance Listing Number(s):	47.050

ABSTRACT

The project will investigate dynamical mechanisms governing intraseasonal variability in the extratropical winter atmosphere. A leading example of this variability is the North Atlantic Oscillation - a meridional dipole in sea-level pressure (and related fields) in the extratropical Atlantic, which influences, notably, the European surface temperatures and precipitation in winter. The relationship of these regional modes with the annular (or hemispheric scale) modes of variability (e.g., Arctic Oscillation) is unclear, although its implications for extratropical variability and predictability are considerable. Dr. Robinson (U of Illinois) will investigate this relationship, including the role of tropical intraseasonal variability in influencing extratropical predictability, from numerical experiments with idealized dynamical models; these models can resolve the involved nonlinear interactions. These models provide an opportunity for systematic investigation of the fundamental dynamical issues, and Dr. Robinson will conduct a suite of experiments to fully investigate the involved mechanisms and interactions. The project will advance theoretical understanding and modeling of dynamical processes governing wintertime intraseasonal variability in the Northern extratropics, and potentially influence operational strategies for extended range weather forecasting.

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