Award Abstract # 2103754
Large-scale CoPe: Megalopolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH): Researching complex interactions between climate hazards and communities to inform governance of coastal risk.

NSF Org: RISE
Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research (ICER)
Recipient: RUTGERS, THE STATE UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: July 30, 2021
Latest Amendment Date: March 21, 2025
Award Number: 2103754
Award Instrument: Cooperative Agreement
Program Manager: Manda S. Adams
amadams@nsf.gov
 (703)292-4708
RISE
 Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research (ICER)
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: August 1, 2021
End Date: July 31, 2026 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $19,935,916.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $19,255,398.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2021 = $11,320,090.00
FY 2023 = $7,935,308.00
History of Investigator:
  • Robert Kopp (Principal Investigator)
    Robert.Kopp@rutgers.edu
  • Klaus Keller (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Carolyn Kousky (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Victoria Ramenzoni (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Ning Lin (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Rutgers University New Brunswick
3 RUTGERS PLZ
NEW BRUNSWICK
NJ  US  08901-8559
(848)932-0150
Sponsor Congressional District: 12
Primary Place of Performance: Rutgers University New Brunswick
Piscataway
NJ  US  08854-3925
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
06
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): M1LVPE5GLSD9
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): SPECIAL EMPHASIS PROGRAM,
CoPe-Coastlines and People
Primary Program Source: 01002122DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
01002324DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

4082CYXXDB NSF TRUST FUND

01002425DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01002526DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01002324DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 4444
Program Element Code(s): 061900, 097Y00
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

Risks from rising seas, shifting storms, and eroding coastlines, as well as changing ecosystems and development patterns, are escalating in coastal megalopolises around the world. Local, state, and federal climate risk management decisions are interacting with one another and coastal dynamics in complex ways that will shape risk patterns for decades. However, the frameworks informing these decisions are often ill-suited for sustained, complex environmental changes unfolding under deep uncertainty and often reinforce existing inequities. The CoPe Megapolitan Coastal Transformation Hub (MACH) aims to develop climate-resilient decision-making frameworks to equitably support coastal communities. Fundamental research questions will be addressed through co-production of climate research, with the intended legacy of producing a replicable model for climate risk management. The project is driven by demographically representative stakeholder engagement, which will be sustained through the continuous engagement of researchers with a Collaborative Stakeholder Advisory Panel. MACH partners with organizations that are trusted by and routinely represent, serve, and engage socially vulnerable and historically underrepresented populations in target communities. MACH will broaden participation in the STEM workforce by engaging community college faculty in the development of research priorities and by working with community college faculty and students to incorporate critical service-learning. In addition to facilitating interdisciplinary science through a broad range of academic partners, the Hub advances CoPe goals by linking researchers with coastal community stakeholders and decision-makers to ultimately co-develop dynamic adaptation policy pathways for navigating a deeply uncertain future in an equitable manner.

To overcome challenges in the dynamics of natural-human systems drive coastal climate risk, MACH will bring natural scientists, social scientists, civil engineers, and humanists together with coastal stakeholders and decision-makers in the New York City-New Jersey-Philadelphia region to co-produce knowledge that informs climate-resilient development pathways of coastal communities. MACH?s convergence research agenda will provide fundamental insights into the complex interactions between coastal climate hazards, landforms, and decisions that shape the distribution, dynamics, and uncertainties of increasing climate risks. It will facilitate flexible, equitable, and robust planning to manage coastal climate risks, building upon the iterative process of framing, analyzing, implementing, and monitoring adaptation systems that constitutes the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathway (DAPP) co-production framework. It will address three fundamental questions: 1) How can an improved scientific understanding of the integrated natural-human-decision system inform coastal climate risk management and the design of mission-oriented basic research? 2) How do the dynamics of coastal natural-human systems drive hazards and risks? 3) How do dynamic interactions among decisions affecting the coastal system at different scales and time horizons influence exposures, vulnerabilities, and risks?

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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(Showing: 1 - 10 of 64)
Xi, Dazhi and Lin, Ning and Gori, Avantika "Increasing sequential tropical cyclone hazards along the US East and Gulf coasts" Nature Climate Change , v.13 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01595-7 Citation Details
Ali, Javed and Wahl, Thomas and Morim, Joao and Enriquez, Alejandra and Gall, Melanie and Emrich, Christopher T "Multivariate compound events drive historical floods and associated losses along the U.S. East and Gulf coasts" npj Natural Hazards , v.2 , 2025 https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00076-5 Citation Details
Pollack, Adam B and Santamaria-Aguilar, Sara and Maduwantha, Pravin and Helgeson, Casey and Wahl, Thomas and Keller, Klaus "Funding rules that promote equity in climate adaptation outcomes" National Academy of Sciences , v.122 , 2025 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2418711121 Citation Details
Rasmussen, D. J. and Kopp, Robert E. and Oppenheimer, Michael "Coastal Defense Megaprojects in an Era of Sea-Level Rise: Politically Feasible Strategies or Army Corps Fantasies?" Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management , v.149 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001613 Citation Details
Ro, Sun_Ho and Gong, Jie "Scalable approach to create annotated disaster image database supporting AI-driven damage assessment" Natural Hazards , v.120 , 2024 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06641-x Citation Details
Saintilan, Neil and Horton, Benjamin and Törnqvist, Torbjörn E. and Ashe, Erica L. and Khan, Nicole S. and Schuerch, Mark and Perry, Chris and Kopp, Robert E. and Garner, Gregory G. and Murray, Nicholas and Rogers, Kerrylee and Albert, Simon and Kelleway, "Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C" Nature , v.621 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06448-z Citation Details
Schneider, Tapio and Behera, Swadhin and Boccaletti, Giulio and Deser, Clara and Emanuel, Kerry and Ferrari, Raffaele and Leung, L. Ruby and Lin, Ning and Müller, Thomas and Navarra, Antonio and Ndiaye, Ousmane and Stuart, Andrew and Tribbia, Joseph and Y "Harnessing AI and computing to advance climate modelling and prediction" Nature Climate Change , v.13 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01769-3 Citation Details
Shaw, Timothy A. and Li, Tanghua and Ng, Trina and Cahill, Niamh and Chua, Stephen and Majewski, Jedrzej M. and Nathan, Yudhishthra and Garner, Gregory G. and Kopp, Robert E. and Hanebuth, Till J. and Switzer, Adam D. and Horton, Benjamin P. "Deglacial perspectives of future sea level for Singapore" Communications Earth & Environment , v.4 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00868-5 Citation Details
Sun, Qiang and Dangendorf, Sönke and Wahl, Thomas and Thompson, Philip R. "Causes of accelerated High-Tide Flooding in the U.S. since 1950" npj Climate and Atmospheric Science , v.6 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00538-5 Citation Details
Tebaldi, Claudia and Aðalgeirsdóttir, Guðfinna and Drijfhout, Sybren and Dunne, John and Edwards, Tamsin L. and Fischer, Erich and Fyfe, John C. and Jones, Richard G. and Kopp, Robert E. and Koven, Charles and Krinner, Gerhard and Otto, Friederike and Rua "The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective" Climate Risk Management , v.40 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100516 Citation Details
Tenebruso, Christopher and Nichols-ONeill, Shane and Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge and Ciarletta, Daniel J. and Miselis, Jennifer L. "Undeveloped and developed phases in the centennial evolution of a barrier-marsh-lagoon system: The case of Long Beach Island, New Jersey" Frontiers in Marine Science , v.9 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.958573 Citation Details
(Showing: 1 - 10 of 64)

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