Award Abstract # 2052268
RAPID: Hurricane Evacuations in the Age of COVID-19

NSF Org: BCS
Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences
Recipient: UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA
Initial Amendment Date: September 8, 2020
Latest Amendment Date: October 14, 2020
Award Number: 2052268
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Thomas Evans
BCS
 Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences
SBE
 Directorate for Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences
Start Date: September 15, 2020
End Date: August 31, 2022 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $78,821.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $78,821.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2020 = $78,821.00
History of Investigator:
  • Jennifer Collins (Principal Investigator)
    collinsjm@usf.edu
  • Mark Welford (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Amy Polen (Co-Principal Investigator)
  • Elizabeth Dunn (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of South Florida
4202 E FOWLER AVE
TAMPA
FL  US  33620-5800
(813)974-2897
Sponsor Congressional District: 15
Primary Place of Performance: University of South Florida
4202 E. Fowler Ave NES 201
Tampa
FL  US  33620-8000
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
15
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): NKAZLXLL7Z91
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): Geography and Spatial Sciences
Primary Program Source: 01002021DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 096Z, 1352, 7914
Program Element Code(s): 135200
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.075

ABSTRACT

Pandemics pose a potentially lethal threat to large numbers of people during a natural disaster. Understanding risk perception and responses to those risks is critical for emergency managers. This project will analyze public perceptions of risk of contracting a lethal virus that inform the choice to shelter in place during a hurricane, or to seek safety in a public shelter. As such, COVID-19 represents an unprecedented public health challenge to evacuation in hurricane-prone coastal areas as well as areas impacted by inland flooding. Emergency managers and public health planners, including federal officials, private sector, and nonprofit organizations need to understand how hurricane evacuation plans change during a pandemic. This study will help advance knowledge of hurricane evacuation behavior, risk, and decision making to anticipate crucial resource needs, to reveal the need for mutual aid agreements, and to improve public messaging during pandemics.

This study documents risk perceptions from those who made evacuation decisions from threatening hurricanes in the active 2020 hurricane season, starting with data collected from those impacted by Hurricane Laura. These post-hurricane risk perceptions will be compared to pre-hurricane risk perception data collected from 7,102 residents that that live in hurricane prone regions. The pre-hurricane survey found that almost half the respondents viewed themselves as vulnerable to COVID-19, and that 74.3% of individuals viewed the risk of being in a shelter during the pandemic as more dangerous than sheltering in place. This RAPID study will utilize a similar survey to collect data about how residents that experienced a hurricane in 2020, starting with Hurricane Laura actually evaluated risk and how they responded to their perceived risk of contracting COVID-19 and their utilization of shelters. Officials can use the results of this study to better inform strategies of shelter preparedness and pandemic risk mitigation to minimize risk to those who may be affected by hurricanes during a mandatory evacuation order.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

From Hurricane Laura and Sally research: When comparing education levels with the Hurricane Laura and Sally data, there was a statistically significant difference in COVID-19 vulnerability perception, with individuals from lower educational backgrounds more likely to say that they did not know if they were vulnerable.

When residents impacted by Hurricane Laura and Sally replied to the statement, “Prior to Hurricane Sally/Laura approaching, I felt that the risks of being in a shelter during the COVID-19 pandemic would be worse than staying at home and enduring the risks of a hurricane (e.g., storm surge, strong winds, etc.).”, 32.8% of total respondents indicated that they felt this statement was definitely true and 25.8% felt it was probably true. This negative perception of shelter risks was highest among those who went to a hotel or stayed at home. This perception is reinforced when asking what participants thought post-landfall. When prompted with the statement, “Now, after Hurricane Sally/Laura made landfall, I feel the same about the risks of a shelter during the COVID-19 pandemic.”, 55.6% of respondents indicated that they felt this statement was definitely true and 31.2% felt it was probably true. This negative shelter perception was high among all groups (with those who responded with “definitely true” ranging from 53.3% for evacuees, 55.6% for those who stayed at home, and 60.5% for those who went to a hotel).

For the larger survey in 2021 of those who could be impacted by a hurricane, many individuals’ evacuation plans would not change regardless of vaccine status. Out of those surveyed, over 70% of individuals had already received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. There was no significant difference in expected evacuation decisions between those who had not been vaccinated and those who had received at least one dose. When asked if their vaccination status would change their evacuation plans, 71.3% stated that it would not. For the remaining respondents who stated that their vaccine status affects the decision to evacuate, many stated that their vaccination status would change whether they avoided crowded settings or stayed at home.

Our reseach provides a foundational knowledge to the actual evacuation behaviors seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and addressed not only how these evacuations were perceived but also logistically how well they functioned. Emergency management agencies can use the information found in this study to increase inclusivity of future hurricane evacuation measures and communications with consideration to COVID-19 in an aim to reach as many vulnerable groups as possible as this was previously lacking (Whytlaw et al. 2021). The results presented here have and will continue to be used by emergency managers to inform future evacuation planning and management.

Our research included and trained undergraduate and graduate students from multiple disciplines.  One former undergraduate student, and then graduate student during the grant, is the first author of the Ida paper in submission.

 

 


Last Modified: 12/30/2022
Modified by: Jennifer M Collins

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