| NSF Org: |
ECCS Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | August 22, 2019 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | July 22, 2020 |
| Award Number: | 1933217 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Aranya Chakrabortty
ECCS Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems ENG Directorate for Engineering |
| Start Date: | September 15, 2019 |
| End Date: | August 31, 2023 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $433,792.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $441,792.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2020 = $8,000.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
1500 SW JEFFERSON AVE CORVALLIS OR US 97331-8655 (541)737-4933 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
OR US 97331-8507 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | EPCN-Energy-Power-Ctrl-Netwrks |
| Primary Program Source: |
01002021DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.041 |
ABSTRACT
A large earthquake, such as a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake, with potential to trigger a devastating tsunami could destroy infrastructure and electrical power systems in communities along the west coast of the United States. Research is lacking on electrical grid performance in the context of an earthquake disaster. Estimating the performance of the entire western grid under the widespread damage of a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake and the hazards that follow (e.g., tsunami,landslides) is extremely challenging. No single method or tool is adequate to tackle this problem. An interdisciplinary approach combining power system operations and analysis, geotechnics, earthquake engineering, mapping, and geospatial analytics, along with human expertise, is required to understand assumptions and complications of the power flow analysis of such a large electrical system. This project will estimate the total damage and recovery time of a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, and inform the best avenues for mitigation for the overall short and long term economic benefit of the region. As the total direct and indirect costs of a large earthquake for the west coast soar into the billions of dollars, any estimates of impact and avenues for mitigation for the electrical lifeline will have a significant benefit for millions of residents and businesses. Outcomes of this research will be disseminated through graduate classroom, online professional and continuing education instruction. Project results and updates will also be discussed with industry leaders via presentations to the Cascadia Lifelines Program (CLiP) board, the 2022 IEEE Power and Energy Society general meeting, and the Oregon STEM Hub.
The primary objectives of the proposed research are to understand how CSZ earthquakes will impact the extent, distribution, and duration of the western electrical grid failure as a function of earthquake intensity and possible aftershocks; develop a framework for the identification of critical grid locations and components that will aid decision makers and planners, and also be broadly applicable to any seismic zone in the US; estimate expected initial load loss and load recovery time due to a major CSZ event; explore impacts of Remedial Action Schemes (RAS) on grid performance and recovery. The proposed multidisciplinary research activities to meet these objectives are: (1) creating rules and automation for an augmented large-scale electrical power flow model of the western electrical grid; (2) developing fragility functions and restoration rates for electrical components in the augmented model; and (3) improving understanding of grid performance and critical points for improved resilience via Monte Carlo analyses of hazard levels and grid scenarios.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Key Outcomes
The key outcomes of this project include
- The development of a bottom-up framework for analyzing resilience and recovery of electrical generation, transmission, and distribution systems following a natural disaster.
- A detailed analysis of the geotechnical stability of a single representative substation.
- A survey of local utility experts on estimated recovery and restoration times of utility equipment post-earthquake.
- A specific estimate of the resilience and recovery of the US northwest power grid follwing a Cascadia Subduction Zone M9 earthquake, determined by a bottom-up Monte Carlo analysis. The conservative estimate is that it will take up to 237 days to recover 99% of the initial lost load.
- Investigation into the value of "just-in-time" Remedial Action Schemes based on earthquake early warning systems. It was found that JIT RAS can improve the resilience by up to 92% for the 95th percentile case.
- Developed a probabilistic method for a regional seismic landslide hazard analysis which (a) calibrates geological units based on terrain slopes of previously mapped landslides within the unit to estimate strength parameters as a fitted distribution, (b) combines several empirical seismic displacement prediction models using a logic tree scheme that weights the individual models based on the suitability of the model to this regional assessment to account for uncertainty, and (c) performs a Newmark sliding block analysis for landslide triggering.
- This model was then used to calculate the probability of exceedance of specific thresholds (e.g., 5%, 15% and 50%) to evaluate potential impacts to the power grid (e.g., poles and transmission lines). Electrical infrastructure located west of the Cascades in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California were determined to be subjected to the highest risk of landslide-induced damage.
- An evaluation site was characterized for a detailed site-specific site response analyses to evaluate the differences in amplification between equivalent linear and nonlinear, total stress analyses using ten ground motions pairs scaled and matched to the USGS seismic scenario hazard. The equivalent linear and the nonlinear approach produced PGA amplification results that were lower from the USGS seismic scenario hazard by 6% and 32%, respectively.
The Oregon Resilience Plan provided an expert assessment that utility service along the coast of tne Pacific Northwest could be out for up to 6 months following a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. This is sigificant as most businesses can only survive a few weeks without utility service. The 6 month estimate was determined by expert opinion. This research developed a bottom-up framework for simulating thousands of earthquakes, and thousands of recovery trajectories based on fragility and restoration functions for 10s of thousands of utility components on the grid, all informed by expert utility opinion on expected restoration times, to find a probablistic measure of recovery. It was determined that the 95th percentile worst case to recover 99% of the original lost load is 276 days, with a 50th percentile estimate of 171 days. Thus, this research provides a key quantative confirmation of the original 6 month outage estimate, and also provides an important import to subsequent studies of recovery, mitigation, and economic impact. It was also found that "just-in-time" Remedial Action Schemes to "harden" the grid shortly before an earthquake via early warning systems, could have a substantial benefit to grid resilience.
Intellectual Merit
The project developed a bottom-up framework for resilience and recovery estimation built up on the fragility and restoration curves of tens of thousands of electrical grid assets. This was combined with a Monte Carlo statistical analysis over thousands of recovery trajectories to develop a probabilistic estimate of the damage to and recovery of the US western grid following a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. An additional detailed analysis of impact and failure was conducted of a specific representative substation.
Broad Impacts
In addition to the general framework, the project also determined specific estimates of the damage mangitude to the Pacific Northwest following a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake. The estimates validate previously estimated expert opinion, and can inform subsequent work on economic impact.
Last Modified: 11/28/2023
Modified by: Ted Brekken
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