Award Abstract # 1929460
Belmont Forum Collaborative Research: Abrupt Change in Climate and Ecosystems: Where are the Tipping Points?

NSF Org: RISE
Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research (ICER)
Recipient: NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: July 2, 2019
Latest Amendment Date: July 7, 2021
Award Number: 1929460
Award Instrument: Continuing Grant
Program Manager: Maria Uhle
muhle@nsf.gov
 (703)292-2250
RISE
 Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research (ICER)
GEO
 Directorate for Geosciences
Start Date: July 1, 2019
End Date: June 30, 2023 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $152,451.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $152,451.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2019 = $76,226.00
FY 2020 = $21,045.00

FY 2021 = $55,180.00
History of Investigator:
  • Nicholas McKay (Principal Investigator)
    Nicholas.McKay@nau.edu
  • Darrell Kaufman (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Northern Arizona University
601 S KNOLES DR RM 220
FLAGSTAFF
AZ  US  86011
(928)523-0886
Sponsor Congressional District: 02
Primary Place of Performance: Northern Arizona University
Flagstaff
AZ  US  86011-0001
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
02
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): MXHAS3AKPRN1
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): Intl Global Change Res & Coord,
CESER-Cyberinfrastructure for
Primary Program Source: 01001920DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
01002021DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT

01002122DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 1679, 7313, EGCH
Program Element Code(s): 731300, 768400
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.050

ABSTRACT

The capability to bring computer science and technology as well as large and complex data sets to bear on interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary science is emerging. It is therefore critically important to establish and enable transnational frameworks so that data-driven scientific knowledge can transcend disciplines and geographical borders, ultimately increasing the scientific underpinnings of policy and action. International collaboration within global environmental change research fields holds the potential to establish international foundations for federated data integration and analysis systems with shared services, bring together best practices from the public and private sectors, foster open data and open science stewardship among the science communities including related areas such as publishing, and encourage data and cloud providers and others to adopt common standards and practices for the benefit of all.

This award supports U.S. researchers participating in a project competitively selected by a coalition of 29 funding agencies from 23 countries through the Belmont Forum Call for proposals on Science-driven e-Infrastructure Innovation (SEI) for the Enhancement of Transnational, Interdisciplinary and Transdisciplinary Data Use in Environmental Change. SEI is a multilateral initiative designed to support research projects that bring together environmental, social and economic scientists with data scientists, computational scientists, and e-infrastructure and cyber-infrastructure developers and providers to solve one or more of the methodological, technological and/or procedural challenges currently facing inter-disciplinary and transdisciplinary environmental change research that involves working with large, diverse and multi-source transnational data. The SEI call will intimately link research thinking and technological innovation toward accelerating the full-path of discovery-driven data use and open science and enable a broader scientific community to benefit from the identified new and potentially disruptive demonstrators or pilots toward solutions.

The historical record indicates that abrupt and unexpected change is the norm, not the exception and that these changes have direct consequences for many species and civilizations. Long‐term records from natural and historical archives have been essential to identifying these tipping elements, because past abrupt changes have occurred rapidly but infrequently, making them impossible to observe with instrumental records. The key limitations to addressing and communicating this major challenge in sustainability research is data access and incompatibility. Inaccessible or "dark" data, unstructured data, the lack of e-infrastructure to integrate multinational and multidisciplinary databases and datasets, are fundamental limit our understanding of abrupt change. This project, run by a diverse, international consortium of ecologists, climate scientists and informaticists will seek to build e-infrastructure that enables efficient cross-resource data access between trans-disciplinary and transnational data resources; and create an analysis package that allows users to detect, map and investigate abrupt change in Earth systems. The project will focus on determining the tipping elements in Earth's climate and ecosystems and to understand what drove rapid desertification in subtropical North Africa 6,000 years ago. In addition, the project will seek to model the FAIR data principles: 1) Findable: exposing dark data and developing tools for data discovery. 2) Accessible: transferring dark data to open-access platforms. 3) Interoperable: building cyberinfrastructure that enables cross-access. And 4) reusable: generating data synthesis products that identify essential metadata as a model for future data generators, while working with stakeholders to facilitate the development of community endorsed data standards.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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Kaufman, Darrell S. and McKay, Nicholas P. "Technical Note: Past and future warming direct comparison on multi-century timescales" Climate of the Past , v.18 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-18-911-2022 Citation Details
Kaufman, D.S. "Data stewardship projects underway" Past Global Changes Magazine , v.30 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.30.1.62 Citation Details
McKay, N and Emile-Geay, J. and Khider, D "Database interoperability, uncertainty quantification and reproducible workflows in the paleogeosciences" Earthcube Annual Meeting 2022 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6780665 Citation Details
Mottl, Ondej and Flantua, Suzette G. A. and Bhatta, Kuber P. and Felde, Vivian A. and Giesecke, Thomas and Goring, Simon and Grimm, Eric C. and Haberle, Simon and Hooghiemstra, Henry and Ivory, Sarah and Kune, Petr and Wolters, Steffen and Seddon, Alist "Global acceleration in rates of vegetation change over the past 18,000 years" Science , v.372 , 2021 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg1685 Citation Details

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.


Understanding past abrupt climate change, and its patterns, causes, and ecological consequences is a major focus of global-change research. Our understanding of past climate and ecological change is based upon networks of thousands of paleoclimatic and paleoecological sites, which must be painstakingly compiled, curated, and harmonized into global data resources.   Our international research team has helped advance these efforts by making global networks of paleoclimate and paleoecological data more accessible and interoperable, while also making exciting progress in better understanding past abrupt climate changes at continental to global scales. Major efforts included  developing new analysis tools, integrating major international databases, compiling research-ready synthesis datasets, relaunching inactive databases, and applying these efforts to analyze the patterns of abrupt change in Africa and globally.


A key accomplishment was creating an open-source R software toolkit for analyzing abrupt climate changes in paleo records. This enables researchers to robustly quantify past climate shifts and their uncertainties using multiple statistical techniques. The toolkit also provides visualizations to simplify presentation of these complex analyses. Since its release, this toolkit has expanded in capabilities and users.


Another big advance was establishing two-way communication between the Linked PaleoData (LiPD) framework and the Neotoma Paleoecology Database, two leading global-change resources for open data. We developed utilities for converting datasets between these systems in both directions. This interoperability makes more paleoecological and paleoclimatic data available for analysis and integration.


We also compiled a new research-ready standardized database focused on abrupt climate changes over the past 12,000 years. Containing records from around the world, this dataset helps researchers investigate the timing, causes, and impacts of abrupt shifts during the relatively stable Holocene period. It is available in a consistent format online.


In addition, we successfully relaunched the inactive African Pollen Database after 10 years of dormancy. This involved digitizing decades of legacy pollen data from Africa, developing new visualization tools, and transitioning to the LiPD format. Many of these records were ported into Neotoma.  Modern pollen datasets were also compiled into a verified library. This resurrected database is being used to gain better understanding of the patterns and timing of past abrupt climate changes in Africa. 


Other accomplishments include producing gridded historical climate data for Asia, constructing a database of Chinese historical records from 1368-1911 AD, and integrating the IPSL Paleo Database into Linked Earth.


This international project made impactful contributions that will benefit both researchers and public stakeholders. Our outcomes empower the study of past abrupt climate changes and their parallels to future shifts. They also expand open access to paleoclimate and paleoecological data, facilitating synthesis and knowledge discovery. This work demonstrates the value of connecting global expertise and resources to advance scientific frontiers.


 


Last Modified: 11/13/2023
Modified by: Nicholas P Mckay

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