Award Abstract # 1903405
CBET-EPSRC Efficient Surrogate Modeling for Sustainable Management of Complex Seawater Intrusion-Impacted Aquifers

NSF Org: CBET
Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems
Recipient: MICHIGAN TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY
Initial Amendment Date: July 16, 2019
Latest Amendment Date: July 16, 2019
Award Number: 1903405
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Karl Rockne
CBET
 Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems
ENG
 Directorate for Engineering
Start Date: September 1, 2019
End Date: March 31, 2020 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $319,950.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $319,950.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2019 = $0.00
History of Investigator:
  • Alex Mayer (Principal Investigator)
    amayer2@utep.edu
  • Jason Gulley (Co-Principal Investigator)
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Michigan Technological University
1400 TOWNSEND DR
HOUGHTON
MI  US  49931-1200
(906)487-1885
Sponsor Congressional District: 01
Primary Place of Performance: Michigan Technological University
1400 Townsend Drive
Houghton
MI  US  49931-1295
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
01
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): GKMSN3DA6P91
Parent UEI: GKMSN3DA6P91
NSF Program(s): EnvE-Environmental Engineering
Primary Program Source: 01001920DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s):
Program Element Code(s): 144000
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.041

ABSTRACT

Water management in densely populated coastal regions is one of the most pressing sustainability challenges worldwide. Coastal groundwater is especially vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise due to the potential for seawater intrusion into groundwater aquifers. Seawater intrusion has reduced water supply in all coastal regions of the US. This has resulted in high costs to society. Groundwater affected by seawater intrusion requires expensive desalination processes to be made drinkable, while irrigation water could be rendered unusable leading to the abandonment of farmland. Future climate projections suggest the problem of seawater intrusion will worsen. However, the scale of the problem is unclear, making it difficult to devise responses. While computer models of coastal groundwater aquifers can be useful for predicting seawater intrusion, these modeling efforts challenge the capability of even the fastest computers. We propose to address this challenge by developing models that are orders of magnitude faster than current models. This will allow for a much broader consideration of potential solutions. These modeling advances will be made in collaboration with water supply agencies, with the goal of increasing the utility of groundwater modeling for coastal communities. Successful development and adoption of these approaches will help agencies tasked with the protection of coastal aquifers devise sustainable management strategies to protect scarce water resources.

Solutions to seawater intrusion problems involve combinations of more efficient pumping schemes, demand reduction, and technological interventions such as desalination. However, determining optimal solutions for these problems poses extreme computational demands. This project will greatly advance the development and application of simulation-optimization (SO) by developing computationally efficient, robust, and accurate surrogate models for coastal groundwater systems. The limited literature on SO and surrogate modeling in seawater intrusion problems has focused on simplified hydrogeological settings and mathematical representations of management strategies. However, realistic seawater intrusion problems involve hydrogeological complexities, including discrete lithological facies, faults and fractures, and saltwater-freshwater mixing zone dynamics. Solutions necessitate nonlinear objective functions and continuous and discrete decision variables, representing a wide range of engineering components. We hypothesize that these hydrogeologic and management features determine the building of accurate and efficient surrogates, and accurate surrogate SO models for seawater intrusion problems can be at least an order of magnitude faster than full-scale models. The reduction in computational effort will allow us to investigate a broader range of potential sea level rise and climate change impacts and a wider range of potential management responses to these impacts. To achieve this goal, the specific project objectives are to: i) develop SO test problems to provide robust evaluation of model surrogates; ii) formulate management objectives and constraints based on management of the test case aquifers, and identify scenarios relevant to the test cases; and iii) program, train, and evaluate the performance of ?data-driven? and ?model-driven? surrogates to identify optimal management schemes for the test case aquifers, a range of sea level rates, climatology, and groundwater demand scenarios.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

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