Recent major hurricanes such as Hurricanes Irma and Michael have clearly shown the urgent needs to study the integration of coastal hazard and evacuation modeling. Major intellectual merit in this project is the integration of coastal hazard modeling (wind, storm surge, and wave) with massive evacuation modeling by considering the uncertainty of hurricane track. In order to provide more accurate predictions of coastal inundation, different parametric wind models have been evaluated and tested in a case study of Hurricane Michael. Dynamically-coupled SWAN and ADCIRC modeling has been found to improve the accuracy of hurricane wave modeling. In order to improve simulation speed, multi-scale nested modeling approach has been developed and tested for rapid simulation of storm surge inundation. Numerical modeling has also been conducted to investigate hurricane wave attenuations after overtopping the sand dunes during storm surges. Integrating those wave-surge models with traffic and accessibility modeling, several case study applications have been conducted. The approach of integrated coastal hazard and evacuation modeling has been tested for Hurricane Irma in South Florida, and the case study of  Hurricane Michael with the uncertainty of hurricane tracks within the forecasting cone covering major coastal cities in Florida Panhandle. Findings from the study have been presented in over 10 research articles published in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

Hurricane Irma made an unusual landfall in South Florida after suddenly shifting its path to the west coast of the peninsula in 2017. This study first assessed the spatiotemporal traffic impacts of Irma on major highways based on real-time traffic data before, during, and after the hurricane made landfall. It was clear that the evacuation process had to change immediately without any time for individual decision-making due to uncertain path. In order to provide guidance for this, integrated evacuation and storm surge modeling has been conducted for the case study of Irma. Modeling such integrated simulations before the hurricane hit the state could provide the information people in hurricane-prone areas need to decide to evacuate or not before the mandatory evacuation order is given.

Hurricane Michael devastated the northwestern Florida in 2018, and specifically impacted areas that are underserved and vulnerable. A Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based optimization methodology was developed for evaluating the accessibility to special needs shelters and repurposing existing regular hurricane shelters for special needs populations. Emergency plans can be improved by the proposed methodology, which can estimate the inundation zones by storm surge modeling and allocate the emerging shelter demand by accessibility analysis and location modeling. This problem becomes even more challenging when we consider the impact of sea level rise that happens due to global warming and other climate-related factors. Therefore, compound inundation has been investigated by modeling storm surge and waves under future sea level rise scenarios. Within forecasted hurricane cone of Hurricane Michael, integrated coastal hazard and evacuation models have been conducted for hurricane tracks covering Pensacola, Destin, and Panama City. Results indicate that rural areas lost accessibility faster than urban areas due to shelter distributions, and roadway closures as spatial accessibility to shelters for offshore populations was rapidly diminishing. More accurate predictions of coastal inundation and better evacuation planning of hurricane shelters can lead to avoiding over-evacuation and less traffic congestion.

This project delivered broad benefits through substantial collaborations with practitioners, academia, students, and the general public. The knowledge and insight gained from the results of this project not only improve our understanding of emergency transportation operations, but it also benefits to the development of new disaster-related policies and plans for local and state governments. Florida Department of Transportation, Florida Division of Emergency Management, and communities were engaged through meetings where appropriate, utilizing expert and public perspective and perception of the findings of the research. An international workshop hosted in Tallahassee by the research team was used for this purpose, and results of this research was disseminated to a wider audience including the academia, companies, government agencies, and communities. Research activities and findings have been introduced to some undergraduate and graduate classes. This research exposed students to many hurricane resilience issues related to storm surge modeling, sea level rise, emergency evacuations, and transportation accessibility. These activities led to several publications in peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations where students involved in this project has actively involved in. Participation of underrepresented students have also broadened their knowledge through the project training. The research project has led to the enhancement of the quality of both undergraduate STEM education and research at Florida A&M University, a HBCU institution, as a means to broaden participation of underrepresented minority populations. Two Ph.D. students and one MS degree students as well as two undergraduate students have graduated through the support or partial support from this research project.

Last Modified: 12/04/2023
Modified by: Wenrui Huang