| NSF Org: |
DEB Division Of Environmental Biology |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | August 13, 2018 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | March 17, 2023 |
| Award Number: | 1824796 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Paco Moore
fbmoore@nsf.gov (703)292-5376 DEB Division Of Environmental Biology BIO Directorate for Biological Sciences |
| Start Date: | September 1, 2018 |
| End Date: | August 31, 2024 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $1,450,000.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $1,450,000.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
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| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
845 N PARK AVE RM 538 TUCSON AZ US 85721 (520)626-6000 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
888 N Euclid Ave Tucson AZ US 85719-4824 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | DYN COUPLED NATURAL-HUMAN |
| Primary Program Source: |
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.074 |
ABSTRACT
This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better understand and respond to the hidden connections, called teleconnections, between forest conditions in one part of the US and agricultural production elsewhere. Recent scientific studies show that changes in forests-such as the widespread die-off in the West related to drought, beetle infestations, and wildfires-affect patterns of temperature and precipitation, which in turn "connect" through atmospheric processes to agricultural production in other parts of the country. This research will determine the economic impacts of forest die-off across the US on agricultural yields and crop values and will develop a blueprint to manage the challenges of such outcomes. This award will provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world.
A grand challenge of the coming century is not only to understand the ecological connections between natural and human systems, but also to understand how and when changing ecological conditions can prompt effective governance feedback responses. This research contributes to the body of literature on telecoupled natural-human systems, focusing on the hidden linkages between forests and agriculture in the US. The long-term goal of the award is to provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world. Changes in vegetation in one location can drive changes in temperature, precipitation, and, subsequently, gross primary productivity in distant locations-a process referred to as an ecoclimate teleconnection. For example, in recent years, California has seen a historic 129 million trees killed across 8.9 million acres, a result of drought, beetle infestation, and wildfire. Via ecoclimatic teleconnections, such large-scale forest die-off may result in telecoupled changes in human systems in distant locations, such as in agricultural yields in the Midwest and related market changes. Specifically, this research will: (1) determine the ecoclimate teleconnections of forest die-off across the US; (2) quantify economic impacts of such changes on US agricultural yield and crop values in key bioclimatic regions; (3) determine the political, institutional, and behavioral factors that may influence decision-makers' ability to respond adaptively to telecoupled forest-agricultural systems; and (4) convene an interactive workshop with decision-makers to present the research findings and to co-produce a blueprint for addressing the governance challenges of such telecoupling. The award will utilize the National Ecological Observatory Network to evaluate the effects of teleconnections between forests and agriculture.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
The goal of this award was to provide decision-makers and land managers with the knowledge and tools they need to understand and respond to the hidden connections, called ecoclimate teleconnections, between forest conditions in one part of the US and agricultural production elsewhere. Recent scientific studies, including the results of this research, show that changes in forests, such as the widespread die-off in the West related to drought, beetle infestations, and wildfires, affect patterns of temperature and precipitation. These effects in turn "connect" distant locations through atmospheric processes to agricultural production in other parts of the country. Over the course of this grant, our research team modeled the impacts of ecoclimate teleconnections for the entire United States, determined the economic impacts of forest die-off across the US on agricultural yields and crop values, and assessed the ability of forest managers to respond to the challenges of such outcomes. Outcomes of this research are presented in peer reviewed publications, fact sheets, and an illustrated video to provide the public, decision-makers, and land managers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world.
A grand challenge of the coming century is not only to understand the ecological connections between natural and human systems, but also to understand how and when changing ecological conditions can prompt effective governance feedback responses. This research contributes to the body of literature on telecoupled natural-human systems, focusing on the hidden linkages between forests and agriculture in the US. The long-term goal of the award was to provide decision-makers with the knowledge and tools to better manage natural-human systems in a telecoupled world. In recent years, California has seen a historic 129 million trees killed across 8.9 million acres, a result of drought, beetle infestation, and wildfire. Via ecoclimatic teleconnections, such large-scale forest die-off may result in telecoupled changes in human systems in distant locations, such as in agricultural yields in the Midwest and related market changes. The results of this research demonstrated: (1) the potential magnitude of impacts from forest die-off on ecological conditions across the US as a result of forest die-off across the US; (2) quantified economic impacts of such changes on US agricultural yield and crop values in key bioclimatic regions; and (3) determined the institutional capacity of land managers to respond to impacts. Specific outputs include 17 peer-reviewed publications published, in review, or in preparation fully or partially supported; 6 post-doctoral scholars trained with 4 of these scholars moving into faculty positions; 2 PhD students; 14 undergraduate students who directly participated in the research or participated in the undergraduate summer mentoring program supported by the grant; several presentations at regional, national, and international workshops and conferences; and fact sheets and an illustrated video that explain ecoclimate teleconnections to non-scientific audiences.
Last Modified: 12/24/2024
Modified by: Aaron M Lien
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