Award Abstract # 1750339
CAREER: Using Metamodeling to Enable High-Fidelity Modeling in Risk-based Multi-hazard Structural Design

NSF Org: CMMI
Division of Civil, Mechanical, and Manufacturing Innovation
Recipient: REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
Initial Amendment Date: March 12, 2018
Latest Amendment Date: March 12, 2018
Award Number: 1750339
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Joy Pauschke
jpauschk@nsf.gov
 (703)292-7024
CMMI
 Division of Civil, Mechanical, and Manufacturing Innovation
ENG
 Directorate for Engineering
Start Date: September 1, 2018
End Date: September 30, 2024 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $500,000.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $500,000.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2018 = $500,000.00
History of Investigator:
  • Seymour Spence (Principal Investigator)
    smjs@umich.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: Regents of the University of Michigan - Ann Arbor
1109 GEDDES AVE STE 3300
ANN ARBOR
MI  US  48109-1015
(734)763-6438
Sponsor Congressional District: 06
Primary Place of Performance: University of Michigan Ann Arbor
MI  US  48109-2125
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
06
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): GNJ7BBP73WE9
Parent UEI:
NSF Program(s): Engineering for Natural Hazard,
CAREER: FACULTY EARLY CAR DEV
Primary Program Source: 01001819DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 036E, 039E, 040E, 043E, 1045, 1057, 1576, 7231, CVIS
Program Element Code(s): 014Y00, 104500
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.041

ABSTRACT

To assess the risk and resiliency of seismic and wind excited buildings in the United States, the use of high-fidelity computational models is paramount to characterizing the building performance. However, the need to propagate uncertainty through the system when estimating state-of-the-art risk/resiliency metrics significantly hinders, if not precludes, the use of such models. This difficulty becomes exasperated in risk-based decision-making where multiple building design solutions must be evaluated and compared over several hazards. The research goal of this Faculty Early Career Development Program (CAREER) award is to overcome this fundamental limitation through the investigation of a new simulation paradigm based on the optimal fusion of low-/intermediate-fidelity metamodels with high-fidelity structural models. By defining the metamodels through domain independent approaches, multi-hazard assessment will be naturally encompassed and will enable new approaches for rapidly identifying the optimal tradeoff solutions to multi-hazard risk-based decision problems. These advances will provide models and procedures for enabling a full transition to optimal risk-based design, while promoting the rational use of computational resources through rigorous optimization. Risk-based design will benefit national welfare and prosperity through enhancing the safety of the built environment against wind and seismic events to better protect life and property during extreme events and to maintain essential services and business continuities during response and recovery. The educational goals of this CAREER award are to increase the number of women in engineering and professionals with expertise in wind loss mitigation. This will be achieved through a high school outreach program that leverages the link between risk-based engineering and societal benefit to inspire a diverse student pool to pursue careers in engineering, the development of an undergraduate wind engineering program at the University of Michigan, and undergraduate student research opportunities. To implement the high school outreach program, project-based learning modules that connect risk-based engineering and societal benefit through basic science will be created. Dissemination of these materials will be achieved through a teacher training workshop. Data from this project will be archived in the NSF-supported Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) Data Depot (https://DesignSafe-ci.org).

This research will create a new class of parametric metamodels (surrogate models) through identifying orthogonal subspaces for each high-fidelity computational model of the simulation environment. This will provide a setting in which both physics-based and data-driven reduced-order parametric metamodels can be defined through hyper-reduction and machine learning. The combined space of the high-fidelity and parametric metamodels will provide an enriched simulation environment in which multi-fidelity uncertainty propagation models can be defined for rapidly estimating high-fidelity probabilistic risk/resiliency metrics. The parametric nature of the metamodels will enable the creation of new adaptive multi-objective optimization schemes that will allow the rapid identification of high-fidelity multi-hazard Pareto fronts, which are central for effective risk-based decision-making. The models identified through this effort will directly benefit a number of other disciplines, including aerospace and biomedical engineering, atmospheric sciences, and the automotive industry, where rapid high-fidelity computation plays a key role in scientific discovery. The research will use the NHERI wind tunnel facility at the University of Florida.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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(Showing: 1 - 10 of 26)
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M "A stochastic simulation scheme for the estimation of small failure probabilities in wind engineering applications" 31st European Safety and Reliability Conference , 2021 Citation Details
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M "High-fidelity probabilistic collapse assessment of tall steel buildings under extreme winds" 6th American Association for Wind Engineering Workshop , 2021 Citation Details
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M. "An Extended Stratified Sampling Approach for Probabilistic Performance Assessment of Structures under Wind and Seismic Hazards" 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14) , 2023 Citation Details
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M. "Generalized Stratified Sampling for Efficient Reliability Assessment of Structures against Natural Hazards" Journal of Engineering Mechanics , v.149 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1061/JENMDT.EMENG-7021 Citation Details
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M. "Reliability-Based Collapse Assessment of Wind-Excited Steel Structures within Performance-Based Wind Engineering" Journal of Structural Engineering , v.148 , 2022 https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541X.0003444 Citation Details
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M. and Duarte, Thays G. and Subgranon, Arthriya. "Experimental validation of a stochastic simulation model for non-Gaussian and non-stationary wind pressures using stationary wind tunnel data" 16th ICWE International Conference on Wind Engineering (ICWE16) , 2023 Citation Details
Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Spence, Seymour M.J. "An efficient stratified sampling scheme for the simultaneous estimation of small failure probabilities in wind engineering applications" Structural Safety , v.101 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strusafe.2022.102310 Citation Details
Chuang, Wei-Chu and Spence, Seymour M. "Rapid uncertainty quantification for non-linear and stochastic wind excited structures: a metamodeling approach" Meccanica , v.54 , 2019 10.1007/s11012-019-00958-9 Citation Details
Duarte, Thays G_A and Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Subgranon, Arthriya and Spence, Seymour M_J "Uncertainty Quantification and Simulation of Wind-Tunnel-Informed Stochastic Wind Loads" Wind , v.3 , 2023 https://doi.org/10.3390/wind3030022 Citation Details
Duarte, Thays G. and Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Subgranon, Arthriya and Spence, Seymour M. "Uncertainty quantification and guidance on the use of wind tunnel-informed stochastic wind load models for applications in performance-based wind engineering" 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14) , 2023 Citation Details
Duarte, Thays G. and Arunachalam, Srinivasan and Subgranon, Arthriya and Spence, Seymour M. "Validation and Error Quantification of Data-Informed Stochastic Wind Models for Performance-Based Wind Engineering Applications" 16th ICWE International Conference on Wind Engineering (ICWE16) , 2023 Citation Details
(Showing: 1 - 10 of 26)

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

This project focused on developing computational strategies to enhance the design and resilience of structures subjected to multiple hazards, such as extreme wind and seismic events. By integrating innovations in machine learning, stochastic simulation, and advanced multi-fidelity frameworks, the research sought to improve how uncertainty is managed in structural assessments, thereby optimizing design processes. These improvements were aimed at ensuring both computational efficiency and high accuracy in simulations, addressing the complex challenges faced by structural engineers in designing systems that must withstand the dynamic forces resulting from natural hazards. Alongside the technological advancements, the project also placed significant emphasis on education and outreach. Efforts were made to engage students, particularly those from underserved populations, in STEM disciplines. Through specially designed units and hands-on research opportunities, high school and undergraduate students were introduced to fundamental engineering concepts, as well as the latest developments in wind engineering and risk mitigation. This educational component aimed to inspire future generations and encourage plurality in engineering fields.

Intellectual Merit: The intellectual contributions of this project lie in its pioneering advances in metamodeling and uncertainty propagation. By integrating techniques such as reduced order modeling and deep learning, the project resulted in the introduction of metamodeling schemes capable of achieving massive reductions in simulation times without sacrificing accuracy. These developments are crucial for modeling complex, nonlinear high-dimensional systems subject to the stochastic loads generated by natural hazards, providing insights previously unattainable with conventional methods. Furthermore, the project introduced multi-fidelity frameworks that significantly enhanced risk assessment capabilities by enabling both efficient and accurate estimation of the small failure probabilities associated with rare events. These frameworks optimally combined low- and high-fidelity models through advanced stratified sampling and metamodeling techniques, enabling more scalable and robust evaluations of wind and seismic risks. In addition, the project developed advanced multi-objective optimization strategies, balancing initial construction costs and potential future losses, thereby offering robust solutions to traditionally conflicting design objectives. These advances are particularly beneficial to performance-based engineering, where continuous optimization of costs, risks, and resilience is crucial.

Broader Impacts: The project had a profound impact not just on technical practices within the field of structural engineering but also on educational and industry standards. Educationally, it increased STEM engagement by providing innovative teaching units and substantial research opportunities geared towards high school and undergraduate students. Special efforts were made to include women and individuals from underserved populations, fostering a broad environment that cultivates a varied talent pool in engineering disciplines. These initiatives aim to inspire interest and build a strong foundation for future careers in technical fields. In terms of industry impact, the methodologies and findings from this project are shaping practices in performance-based wind engineering. The advanced tools and frameworks developed are being integrated into new software solutions used by industry professionals, transforming how structural engineers conduct risk assessments and model complex systems. This integration ensures safer and more cost-efficient construction practices, directly affecting how industry standards are set and maintained. Moreover, the project’s findings are increasingly being adopted by professional committees dedicated to advancing the codes and standards adopted by industry. This ensures that the academic innovations resulting from this project are directly translated into practical benefits for wider society. As a result, the project not only expanded the academic boundaries of structural engineering but also ensured its findings have a lasting impact on industry practices. Through these collective efforts, the project contributed significantly to the fields of structural resilience and safety, addressing critical challenges in structural modeling and optimization while laying a foundation for future research and practical applications. By merging academic theory with practical engineering needs, it has set the stage for lasting improvements in how complex design challenges are approached in both educational and professional contexts.


Last Modified: 02/11/2025
Modified by: Seymour M Spence

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