| NSF Org: |
AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | February 13, 2013 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | January 14, 2020 |
| Award Number: | 1243125 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Eric DeWeaver
edeweave@nsf.gov (703)292-8527 AGS Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | February 15, 2013 |
| End Date: | September 30, 2020 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $1,362,190.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $1,366,399.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2015 = $12,000.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
845 N PARK AVE RM 538 TUCSON AZ US 85721 (520)626-6000 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
AZ US 85721-0001 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): | CR, Earth System Models |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001516DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
Drought is among the most ruinous of natural disasters and is expected to become increasingly prevalent in a warming world. In the future, natural hydroclimatic variability will be superimposed on continued human-driven changes to regional climate, with both long-term warming and regional drying likely to exacerbate droughts of the future. Among the greatest challenges of decadal prediction and climate change projection are the quantification of prolonged drought risk in vulnerable regions and the integration of knowledge about this risk into the decision-making processes of the many resource managers and other stakeholders who deal with drought.
This project focuses on a scale of drought variability - decadal to multidecadal - that is not well constrained by observations, nor well represented in models. The activity relies on the integrated use of satellite, instrumental, and paleoclimatic observations, along with climate models and analysis, to understand both the natural and human influences on drought, potential model biases, and the roles of land cover change (vegetation and dust), ocean temperatures, and other factors behind drought. The goal is to develop improved estimates of drought risk, as well as the improved partnerships between scientists and stakeholders that are required to reduce the vulnerability of society to drought. Key vulnerable regions will be identified, where natural variability and anthropogenic change combine to amplify the risk of prolonged, severe drought with large consequences: southwestern North America (US and Mexico), Australia, the Amazon, and West Africa/Sahel.
The strategy takes advantage of several unique observational, model and stakeholder resources: (1) an unprecedented number of simulations of the past millennium from a state-of-the-art Earth System Model (CESM; in addition to the CMIP5 archive); (2) an expanding set of published and emerging paleoclimate datasets from multiple proxies that reveal long observational histories of decadal-multidecadal hydroclimate variability; (3) a longstanding network of stakeholders and collaborators in the southwestern US, Mexico, and beyond with whom we can develop best practices in applying drought risk estimates to real-world problems across a broad social context; and (4) a long history of working on drought variability and stakeholder-driven.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Our project "Quantifying and Conveying the Risk of Prolonged Drought in Coming Decades" was designed to improve our understanding of climate variability and drought - past, present and future - and the implications for decision making. We were particularly interested in 'megadroughts' - deep and sustained dry period that can have significant impacts on ecosystems and livelihoods. We developed new datasets about past droughts from cave geochemistry and synthesized other paleoclimatic data from corals, tree rings and other evidence to understand the complex drought histories of the Amazon, South Asia, Australia, and the US Southwest. We also used computer models to evlauate the role of El Niño, volcanoes, CO2, and other drivers of climate variability in extended droughts, and used our understanding to suggest how megadroughts might occur in the future. Our work showed that some computer models may underestimate the severity of drought. We showed how flows of the Colorado River are declining as a result of warmer temperatures and sustained drought, and projected increasing risks of drought to water resources in the Southwest US. This work was shared with decision makers concerned about the impacts of drought in the SWUS. A case study of drought in California showed the serious impacts of sustained drought on understudied social groups such as rural communities and farmworkers, and the transformations and adaptation that may be required to respond if drought and vulnerabilities become more intense. A workshop and publications on drought in Central America and Mexico revealed the complex relationships between drought and migration.
The insights from this project contributed to broader syntheses of past and future climate, the risk of sudden onset drought ('flash drought'), megadroughts as a new 'normal', climate adaptation, and how best to communicate climate information and impacts. Research gaps indentified during the project include the need to create records of past climate from multiple sources, the need to improve how earth systems models represent megadrought, the importance of considering the impacts of megadrought on understudied and vulnerable sectors such as workers and migrants, and how regions can include drought risks in adaptation plans.
Last Modified: 01/17/2021
Modified by: Diana M Liverman
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