| NSF Org: |
RISE Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research (ICER) |
| Recipient: |
|
| Initial Amendment Date: | July 30, 2015 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | August 31, 2015 |
| Award Number: | 1516912 |
| Award Instrument: | Standard Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Sarah Ruth
sruth@nsf.gov (703)292-7594 RISE Integrative and Collaborative Education and Research (ICER) GEO Directorate for Geosciences |
| Start Date: | August 1, 2015 |
| End Date: | July 31, 2019 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $1,491,539.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $1,491,539.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
|
| History of Investigator: |
|
| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
110 INNER CAMPUS DR AUSTIN TX US 78712-1139 (512)471-6424 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
|
| Primary Place of Performance: |
101 E. 27th Street, Suite 5.300 Austin TX US 78712-1532 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
|
| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
|
| Parent UEI: |
|
| NSF Program(s): | DYN COUPLED NATURAL-HUMAN |
| Primary Program Source: |
|
| Program Reference Code(s): |
|
| Program Element Code(s): |
|
| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.050 |
ABSTRACT
Over the past several decades, hundreds of glaciers in mountainous regions have been melting, leaving behind new glacier lakes holding millions of cubic meters of water. Usually contained by dams of loose boulders and soil, these lakes present a risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). As the number and extent of these lakes grows, so does the flood risk for communities downstream of them, potentially leading to extensive loss of lives and severe damage to transport infrastructure, hydroelectric power facilities and agriculture. This project will look at the factors that lead to GLOFs, and the measures that local populations can take to adapt to this increasing threat.
The research will capture unique knowledge of glacial lakes and the communities that live near them, sharing this with researchers and decision makers challenged by these problems in the U.S. and elsewhere. The interdisciplinary research approach will contribute to the development of a new generation of scientists in the area of coupled natural and human systems of glacier-dominated mountain systems. It will lead to improved understanding and management of risks, and of designs that reduce flood risk related to these systems.
The goals of the proposed research are to: (1) Understand natural system dynamics through an analysis of the impacts of climate change on glacial lakes, (2) Understand the human system dynamics through the strengthening of community resiliency to glacial lake hazards by developing community-driven glacial lake risk reduction systems, (3) Understand how the natural system affects the human system through the assessment of local ecological knowledge and understanding of hydrological resources and the vulnerability of the social-ecological system to glacial lake outburst flood hazard, and (4) Understand how the human system affects the natural system through the design and modeling of community-driven solutions to analyze the reduction of flood risk and the evolution of glacial lakes.
The project will integrate in situ physical and societal observations with geospatial analyses, intensive glacial hydrology and outburst flood modeling, key respondents interviews, and community level mappings and focus groups. The project will assess outburst flood-related processes that include glacier hydrology, river flow, hydraulics, and sediment/debris transport models. These natural system impacts will be integrated with the human science aspects to evaluate socio-economic impacts of potential outburst flood events on communities, households, and ecotourism.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
Note:
When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external
site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a
charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from
this site.
PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
A remote sensing analysis of glacial lake risk assessment of several lakes in Nepal was extended to cover all glacial lakes in Nepal greater than 0.10 km2. Scenarios of potential future Imja Lake GLOFs were modeled and indicated that these floods would not pose significant risk to downstream villages. A rational decision-making methodology was developed and applied to Imja Lake for GLOF risk management including economic analysis of flood consequences and adaptation options. A record of englacial conduit outburst floods that have occurred since the 1950s from the Thame, Nangpa,Lhotse, Khumbu, Ngozumpa, and Island Peak glacier regions was obtained which illustrates a distinct increase in frequency, especially during the past 10-15 years.
Semi-structured interviews with key informants and stakeholders resulted in data for an institutional analysis to understand the policy process and institutions governing water resources and disaster management in the Khumbu region. The social data was quantified, ranked, and analyzed to describe how GLOF risks are framed within a larger set of threats and risks perceived by the locals.
Perceptions of GLOF and other hazards
Earthquakes and GLOFs were consistently identified and ranked as the top two significant hazards (out of 11 different natural hazards and risks) by community members. Local communities are more fearful of “rapid onset risks” (or dread risks) such as, earthquakes and avalanches that are infrequent but can be more deadly than “slow onset” hazards (e.g., drought, erratic weather and snowfall), as they feel more scared, vulnerable, and helpless in those situations.
GLOF risks such as flooding, loss of human and animal lives, and damages to infrastructures are known to the communities, and many community members have memories of surviving previous GLOF events. However, local people, especially some local leaders, do not see GLOF as deadly and devastating as other rapid onset risks such as, earthquakes and avalanches.
Perceptions of cryospheric hazards and risks, particularly GLOFs are found to be primarily influenced by tourism-based livelihood, age factors, past experiences with hazardous events, and distance to hazards. Tourism entrepreneurs are more likely to be aware of these hazards and other climatic risks than others dependent on agriculture.
Many people perceptions of GLOF risks are shaped by how those risks are communicated to them by outside sources. Although many community members have firsthand experiences with flooding and flood damages, their perceptions are also influenced by the information received from others. The major sources of their information are mass media (e.g., radio, TV, newspapers), followed by trainings organized by NGOs and government programs.
Culture and disaster risks
Understanding Sherpa cultural beliefs is key to exploring their ideas of disaster risks and how they cope with risks, suffering, and death. Mahayana Buddhism plays an important role in how Sherpa perceive, interpret, and respond to the threats and risks of hazardous objects, events, or processes. People frame the threats and risks of natural hazards caused by either “natural” or “supernatural” forces, in which those caused by natural forces can be dealt with at the community level with practical actions such as repair, adjustments, and sanctions. On the other hand, the supernatural forces can only be dealt with through the guidance of spiritual leaders who can suggest risk avoidance strategies such as prayers, rituals, and building praying walls. This is particularly important for GLOF risk perceptions, because some of the glacial lakes are considered sacred.
Sherpas also have the concept of “Nomdok” which can be loosely translated as a bad omen that can invite misfortunes in life. Sherpas in the Khumbu generally avoid talking publicly about some unfortunate events like illness and death. It essentially means those unfortunate events could happen if those are repeated without good reasons.
Institutional analysis of disaster risk management and policies
Institutional analysis revealed a disconnect between external and internal institutions in the study area on how GLOF risks and the mitigation mechanisms are perceived, interpreted, and prioritized. This disconnect exists because there is a mismatch between the priorities of the external and internal organizations. Tourism-based economy is the lens through which Khumbu communities assess their vulnerability to cryospheric hazards and risks. In contrast to external organizations’ singular focus on Imja, the disaster risk portfolio of the local is more integrative and includes several other important hazards and risks (e.g., earthquake, avalanche, unseasonal weather).
This disconnect exists also because there is no boundary organization in place that can bridge between science and society and translate complex scientific jargon and results into effective policy solutions.
Last Modified: 10/16/2019
Modified by: Daene C Mckinney
Please report errors in award information by writing to: awardsearch@nsf.gov.
