| NSF Org: |
DMS Division Of Mathematical Sciences |
| Recipient: |
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| Initial Amendment Date: | February 3, 2015 |
| Latest Amendment Date: | September 2, 2019 |
| Award Number: | 1455272 |
| Award Instrument: | Continuing Grant |
| Program Manager: |
Tomek Bartoszynski
tbartosz@nsf.gov (703)292-4885 DMS Division Of Mathematical Sciences MPS Directorate for Mathematical and Physical Sciences |
| Start Date: | June 1, 2015 |
| End Date: | May 31, 2020 (Estimated) |
| Total Intended Award Amount: | $499,964.00 |
| Total Awarded Amount to Date: | $499,964.00 |
| Funds Obligated to Date: |
FY 2016 = $92,772.00 FY 2017 = $106,357.00 FY 2018 = $163,902.00 FY 2019 = $77,435.00 |
| History of Investigator: |
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| Recipient Sponsored Research Office: |
341 PINE TREE RD ITHACA NY US 14850-2820 (607)255-5014 |
| Sponsor Congressional District: |
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| Primary Place of Performance: |
438 Malott Hall Ithaca NY US 14853-4201 |
| Primary Place of
Performance Congressional District: |
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| Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): |
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| Parent UEI: |
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| NSF Program(s): |
PROBABILITY, Division Co-Funding: CAREER |
| Primary Program Source: |
01001617DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001718DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001819DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT 01001920DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT |
| Program Reference Code(s): |
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| Program Element Code(s): |
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| Award Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Fund Agency Code: | 4900 |
| Assistance Listing Number(s): | 47.049 |
ABSTRACT
Landslides, earthquakes, avalanches, wildfires, and financial crises are examples of disaster events in complex systems. The aim of this research is to prove theorems about mathematical models of these systems, with three particular goals:
(1) Quantify the dependence of large-scale observations on small details. Which details actually matter?
(2) Develop efficient algorithms to determine whether a given system will stabilize and how long it will take.
(3) Examine the threshold state that precedes a large disaster event, and what triggers the disaster.
While simulation is an important tool for modeling complex systems, the focus of this research is on mathematical proof. A simulation reveals how a system behaves, but a proof reveals why.
Many interacting particle systems have a phase transition between a state that eventually stabilizes and a state in which activity persists forever. These systems have a second level of dynamics, operating on a slower time scale and driving the system toward greater instability, leading ultimately to a threshold state in which activity persists forever. Until recently this threshold state remained beyond the realm of rigorous proof, but it is now understood in a particular case, the abelian sandpile in the limit as the initial condition tends to negative infinity. Dr. Levine will leverage this understanding to locate the activity phase transition in a wider class of models. This project also has an educational component, whose goal is to encourage and enable bright young people to pursue science and technology careers by providing them with the working knowledge of probability they will need to succeed in those careers.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT
Disclaimer
This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.
Last Modified: 01/25/2021
Modified by: Lionel Levine
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