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Award Abstract # 1434419
New Approaches for Simulation-Based Optimal Decision Making

NSF Org: CMMI
Division of Civil, Mechanical, and Manufacturing Innovation
Recipient: UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND, COLLEGE PARK
Initial Amendment Date: June 15, 2014
Latest Amendment Date: April 18, 2019
Award Number: 1434419
Award Instrument: Standard Grant
Program Manager: Georgia-Ann Klutke
gaklutke@nsf.gov
 (703)292-2443
CMMI
 Division of Civil, Mechanical, and Manufacturing Innovation
ENG
 Directorate for Engineering
Start Date: January 1, 2015
End Date: December 31, 2019 (Estimated)
Total Intended Award Amount: $220,000.00
Total Awarded Amount to Date: $228,000.00
Funds Obligated to Date: FY 2014 = $220,000.00
FY 2019 = $8,000.00
History of Investigator:
  • Michael Fu (Principal Investigator)
    mfu@umd.edu
Recipient Sponsored Research Office: University of Maryland, College Park
3112 LEE BUILDING
COLLEGE PARK
MD  US  20742-5100
(301)405-6269
Sponsor Congressional District: 04
Primary Place of Performance: University of Maryland College Park
4305 Van Munching Hall
College Park
MD  US  20742-1871
Primary Place of Performance
Congressional District:
Unique Entity Identifier (UEI): NPU8ULVAAS23
Parent UEI: NPU8ULVAAS23
NSF Program(s): OE Operations Engineering,
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
Primary Program Source: 01001415DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
01001920DB NSF RESEARCH & RELATED ACTIVIT
Program Reference Code(s): 072E, 073E, 077E, 116E, 9178, 9231, 9251
Program Element Code(s): 006Y00, 551400
Award Agency Code: 4900
Fund Agency Code: 4900
Assistance Listing Number(s): 47.041

ABSTRACT

Simulation is widely used in many industrial settings, from manufacturing and supply chain management to service systems, including health care, transportation, and financial services. Due to the complexity of many of these systems, however, computation has often been a limiting factor in solving large-scale problems based on simulation models, even with the continuing advances in computing power. This award supports fundamental research leading to new algorithms that would improve the efficiency of finding optimal decisions for many problems in the manufacturing and service industries mentioned above, and thus lead to direct benefits to the U.S. economy and society. The research involves mathematical models, computing, applied probability, and statistics.

Direct gradient estimation techniques such as perturbation analysis and the likelihood ratio method provide computationally efficient methods for obtaining unbiased gradient estimators without the need for resimulation. Such estimators are the basis for gradient-based search procedures used in many simulation optimization algorithms. However, the resulting algorithms use only the gradients, consistent with their application in the deterministic optimization setting, where the gradients are exact so there is no value gained in using the objective function (or performance measure) values themselves for performing gradient search. On the other hand, in the stochastic setting, the gradient estimates are noisy, which means that using the function values to provide additional information on estimating the gradient may be beneficial. The proposed research explores new methods for incorporating direct gradient estimates from stochastic simulation into existing simulation optimization techniques, specifically response surface methodology and stochastic approximation. The goals of the research include: (i) developing new more effective algorithms, (ii) proving convergence of the resulting algorithms, (iii) analyzing finite-time properties of the algorithms, and (iv) providing practical implementation guidelines based on both theory and empirical numerical testing. Thus, in addition to algorithmic advances, new theory will likely be needed to provide guidance as to the settings in which the new algorithms are likely to provide additional benefit.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

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(Showing: 1 - 10 of 37)
G. Jiang and M.C. Fu "Truncated Importance Splitting for Finite-Time Rare Event Simulation" IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control , v.63 , 2018 , p.1760
G. Jiang and M.C. Fu "Technical Note: On Estimating Quantile Sensitivities via Infinitesimal Perturbation Analysis" Operations Research , v.63 , 2015 , p.435
A. Gopalan, P. L.A., M.C. Fu, and S.I. Marcus "Weighted Bandits or: How Bandits Learn Distorted Values that are Not Expected" Proceedings of the Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-17) , 2017 , p.1941-1947
A.O. Hall and M.C. Fu "Optimal Army Officer Force Profiles" Optimization Letters , 2015
C. Jie and P. L.A. and M.C. Fu and S.I. Marcus and C. Szepesvari "Stochastic Optimization in a Cumulative Prospect Theory Framework" IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control , v.63 , 2018 , p.2867
G. Jiang and M.C. Fu "Quantile Sensitivity Estimation for Dependent Sequences" Journal of Applied Probability , 2016
G. Jiang, C. Xu, and M.C. Fu "On Sample Average Approximation Algorithms for Determining the Optimal Importance Sampling Parameters in Pricing Financial Derivatives on Levy Processes" Operations Research Letters , 2016
G. Jiang, M.C. Fu, and C. Xu "Optimal Importance Sampling for Simulation of Levy Processes" Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference , 2015
G. Sun, Y. Li, and M.C. Fu "A Spectral Index for Selecting the Best Alternative" Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference , 2019 , p.3436
G. Sun, Y. Li, and M.C. Fu "Bayesian Sequential Experimental Design for Stochastic Kriging with Jackknife Error Estimates" Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference , 2019 , p.3436
G. Sun, Y. Li, and M.C. Fu "Utility-based Statistical Selection Procedures" Proceedings of the 2019 Winter Simulation Conference , 2019 , p.3416
(Showing: 1 - 10 of 37)

PROJECT OUTCOMES REPORT

Disclaimer

This Project Outcomes Report for the General Public is displayed verbatim as submitted by the Principal Investigator (PI) for this award. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Report are those of the PI and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation; NSF has not approved or endorsed its content.

Our project addressed a general setting where a decision maker must make multiple sequential decisions over a time horizon involving random (or uncertain) sequential outcomes. This setting covers a wide range of problems, from  production planning to transportation systems to games. We are specifically interested in problems where a simulation model is available. For such problems, we developed several computationally efficient algorithms (e.g., a new 2nd-order Secant-Tangents AveRaged (STAR) stochastic approximation algorithm that uses both direct and indirect gradients) to provide optimal decision support and demonstrated the algorithms on applications from inventory control to financial engineering to two-person games. Our research involves mathematically rigorous analysis for developing the algorithms where important theoretical properties are proved, and numerical studies to test the algorithms. As an illustration of one of the algorithms, we have a Web-based simulation written in Java that is available to the general public (on the PI's Web site) to see how such algorithms perform on a simple game of tic-tac-toe. The research results have been published in numerous prestigious peer-review journals and presented at all of the leading conferences in the field. The research project has involved several faculty and PhD students, a postdoctoral fellow, and two undergraduate students. 


Last Modified: 03/20/2020
Modified by: Michael C Fu

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