Title : IAIOES06 REPORT ON THE IAI WORKSHOP OCEAN/LAND/ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS IN THE INTER-TROPICAL AMERICAS Type : IAI Newsletter NSF Org: GEO Date : August 8, 1995 File : iaioes06 THE INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH REPORT ON THE IAI WORKSHOP ON OCEAN/LAND/ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS IN THE INTER-TROPICAL AMERICAS =46ebruary 7-10, 1994 Panama City, Panama TABLE OF CONTENTS =09 =46OREWORD 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 =09 I. BACKGROUND 7 =09 =09 II. THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE 9=09 =09 1. Climate and the Monsoons 9 2. Sea Level Changes 10=09 3. Coral Reefs 11 =09 III. ISSUES AND PRIORITIES 14 1. Understanding Climate 14 2. Coastal Zone Ecosystems 15 3. Oceanography and Air-Sea Interactions 17=09 IV. UNDERLYING NEEDS 18 1. Climate Forecasting 18 2. Coastal Zone Ecosystems 19 3. Recommendations and the Role of the IAI 19 V. REFERENCES 23 APPENDIX 1: IAI Initial Scientific Themes 25 APPENDIX 2: Acronyms 26 APPENDIX 3: Workshop Participants 28 =46OREWORD Scientists from several countries in the Americas met =46ebruary 7-11, 1994 in Panama City, Panama to discuss the processes related to ocean/land/atmosphere interactions in the inter-tropical Americas. This workshop was sponsored by the Inter- American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), a new organization created to address the need for advanced study of regionally significant environmental issues. Created in May of 1992, the IAI is designed to evolve into a network of research facilities throughout the Americas which will augment research capabilities and promote education and training within the scientific fields most important to current and future global change research. At this writing, 16 nations have signed the agreement establishing the Institute, recognizing that no one nation can adequately study the complex global environmental mechanisms on this planet. The signatory nations agree that a greater understanding of these mechanisms may be achieved by a regional and international pooling of information. The IAI agreement notes the importance of an evolving scientific agenda that reflects an appropriate balance among the biogeographic areas of scientific importance. It also stresses the need to address in an integral fashion the physical, economic, and social issues relating to global change. Seven broadly defined research topics have been identified as priorities for special focus. To identify the most pressing scientific questions and socio-economic issues within those seven priority topics, a group of physical and social scientists met in Silver Spring, Maryland, in the United States on March 5-6, 1992. The resulting document, the Report of the Meeting of Scientific Experts, provided the basis for a series of seven workshops on scientific program development, intended to advance the science agenda of the IAI. The workshop on ocean/land/atmosphere interactions in the inter-tropical Americas was the third of the seven workshops. The other six were: Comparative Studies of Oceanic, Coastal, and Estuarine Processes in Temperate Zones (Montevideo, Uruguay), Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles (S=E3o Jos=E9 dos Campos, Brazil), High Latitude Processes (Buenos Aires, Argentina), ENSO and Interannual Climate Variability (Lima, Per=FA), Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems (Durham, N.C., USA), and Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity (Guadalajara, M=E9xico). This report on discusses possible plans for scientific strategies and suggests the infrastructure that might be necessary to undertake further investigations. It proposes improvements in regional communication systems and identifies priorities in further education and training. It is only a proposed guide to action. The next step, as stated in the science plan, is to develop an implementation plan, a definite program for the topic. Sincere thanks must be extended to those who helped in organizing the workshop and preparing this report. Special acknowledgment must be given to the local organizing committee for conducting the workshop in Panama City under the coordination of Licenciado Arist=EDdes Lorlesse from the National Institute for Renewable Natural Resources of Panama (INRENARE). Additionally, I would like to express my most sincere thanks to Dr. Robert W. Corell (National Science Foundation), Dr. Michael J. Hall, James Buizer, Lisa Farrow and Claudia Nierenberg (NOAA/OGP) for their constant enthusiasm and support during the development of this workshop. Finally, I would like to acknowledge the commitment, dedication and enthusiasm of my staff members, Raquel S. Gomes, Marcella Ohira and D=E9lia Levandoski, without whose support in preparing this report would have been impossible to accomplish. Rub=E9n Lara Lara IAI Executive Scientist EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A scientific agenda for the IAI topic on Ocean/Land/ Atmosphere Interactions in the Inter-tropical Americas, was recommended at the conclusion of this workshop convened by Inter- American Institute for Global Change Research and the National Institute for Renewable Natural Resources of Panama (INRENARE). More than 70 scientists from 10 countries began the four-day session by reviewing current scientific knowledge about the theme's subtopics, such as modeling, climatology, oceanography, sea level, coral reefs, mangrove systems, plankton dynamics, the effects of land use changes, and the effects of global change on the human population. Participants discussed the different international programs now addressing the topic. They then divided into four working groups: (1) Climatology; (2) Coastal Zone Ecosystems and Land Use; (3) Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions; and (4) Human Dimensions. The latter group, after developing its theme, integrated into the other three groups so the human dimensions of global change could be represented in all discussions. The main conclusions of each working group are as follows: Climatology of the Inter-tropical Region The most important issue was considered to be the description of the characteristics of the intertropical climate system and its variability. This variability, represented by droughts, floods, and severe meteorologic conditions, has strong impacts on the region's socioeconomic activities. Much of the variability results from the interrelation between continental and oceanic circulations, modified by local geography. Scientists must, therefore, (1) define and quantify the processes that control the variability of the region's rainfall, and (2) define and quantify the processes that determine oceanic and terrestrial temperatures and their variability. To improve forecasting of climate conditions, which would greatly benefit decision-making processes, it was considered necessary to improve scientific knowledge on the following topics: * the influence of global scale processes on the region * the relative importance of large-scale processes such as planetary waves and the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, and small scale processes such as sea breeze, on local climate * mapping of general distribution of climatological variables in certain regions * the role of earth surface and vegetation on regional rainfall * the development of mesoscale models at low latitudes and their applications to the study of climate and hydrological forecasts * climatology and importance of mesoscale rainfall systems =09 To achieve knowledge of the above topics, the group concluded that research focus should be on: (1) atmospheric boundary layer processes on the oceans and the earth, and (2) modulation at low frequency of atmospheric circulation by sea surface temperature. Coastal Zone Ecosystems and Land Use Critical systems in the intertropical Americas that would be affected by global change were identified as mangroves and salt marshes, coral reefs, beaches and dunes, and rivers and deltas. To understand the effect of change on these systems it is necessary to determine the following: At what rate are they changing? Why are they changing? What is the socioeconomic value of these changes? =09 Few studies on these systems exist, the group concluded, and those that do are too specific to be useful in the larger picture. The social impacts of land use, pollution, eutrophication, and fishery changes must be emphasized. It is also necessary to improve knowledge on the following topics: * biologic community structure and functions * species decreases * over-exploitation and irrational exploitation * sediment-erosion balance * salinization and hydrological fluxes Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions The basic problem addressed by this group was the definition of the time-space variability of the ocean-atmosphere interaction. This requires the identification of the regional processes and mechanisms that control the movement and intensity of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and its relation to wind and precipitation fields. Clarifying this requires further study of the following aspects: * characteristics of sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Tropical Eastern Pacific, including the relative importance of the variability of subsurface thermal structure and heat transport and how they affect certain subsurface anomalies * the study of regional ocean-atmosphere interactions that could cause changes in the ITCZ. * definition of the role that ITCZ variability plays in precipitation patterns in the Intertropical Americas The group determined that currently the scientific community is unable to deal with these challenges. Improvements are needed in research observation and modeling capacities, and the number and level of trained personnel capable of dealing with these issues should be increased. Human Dimensions The participation of social scientists in the questions of global change should be strengthened, this group decided. Sociologists should also be integrated into the multidisciplinary understanding of global change and be included in international cooperative projects of global change research, particularly in countries neighboring their own. Their inclusion would help pass on the current state of scientific knowledge about global change to the general public. I. BACKGROUND Because of their ability to grow a wide variety of food crops easily, countries in the tropics find their economies heavily dependent on agriculture. But since the tropics are also the region of large, influential weather-making systems, agriculture and other economic activities are frequently influenced by extreme climate variability. Too much or too little rain, or heavy storm activity can affect the food sources for tropical countries. Extreme weather activities brought about by ENSO events, or sea level change brought on by long-term global warming can have a direct effect on human populations. More immediate onslaughts by pollution or careless human development impose strains on human health and happiness. Sea level changes and shoreline alterations also have negative impacts on economic activities such as tourism (Maul, 1993; Alm et al., 1988). Much of the variability of precipitation in this region is determined by the interplay between oceanic and continental circulations, as modified by the local terrain. Understanding that interplay and the effects it has on countries in the region requires a simultaneous three-pronged, interactive research agenda in the eastern tropical Pacific and the western tropical Atlantic. That three-pronged attack should include studies of social issues, applied environmental research, and basic research. =09 Social Issues to be considered include the immediate need of developing countries to feed their populations. How much do anomalous climatic events affect that effort, and what effect would climate forecasting have on food-producing problems? What efforts are underway to predict storms, ENSO events, sea level change, and other climatic events that have a direct effect on food production and the general well-being of human populations? What are the immediate hazards to the environment and to human health, such as pollution, and what can be done about these hazards? What modes of development impose high energy costs and result in undesirable environmental effects such as erosion and loss of productive land ? What are the impacts of shoreline development and sea level changes on tourism? =09 Applied Environmental Research must address how to manage the environment for sustainable human use. What are the anthropogenic impacts on life support systems such as sustainable management of artisanal fisheries on coral reefs, mangrove communities, and sea grasses, and what is the impact of changes in global climate and sea level on all coastal resources? What part does nitrification and sedimentation play in the deterioration of coastal resources? How do large scale changes in vegetation due to changing land use feed back into the atmosphere? Basic Research should focus on how the physical and biological environments interact over the long term to enable prediction of the long-term trajectory of the global environment and how to separate anthropogenic disturbance from long-term environmental variability. Monitoring and data exchange networks should be established, and comparisons should be made between the Gulf/Caribbean/Bahamas and eastern tropical Pacific ecosystems. II. THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE The major circulation patterns of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic (including the Intra-Americas Sea) are understood, but the processes and mechanisms, both atmospheric and oceanic, that influence the space-time variability of the system need further study (Gordon, 1967; Gallegos et al., 1993). It is recognized that upper ocean temperature anomalies in the inter-tropics are highly correlated to the space-time variability of the upwelling systems in the region, and may strongly influence precipitation patterns (Aparicio, 1993). The related modulation of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) not only influences the distribution of the precipitation over the inter-tropical Americas, but may also exert feedback effects on the temperature fields. The relation between variations in these processes and the ENSO cycles are not well understood. It is recognized that sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical oceans influence precipitation over the tropics and extratropics and that circulation anomalies appear to influence the frequency of tropical cyclone formation (Gray, 1993). The role of SST in monsoon circulation is less well known but is currently under study. On the other hand, the importance of monsoon circulations in regional climate has long been recognized over many areas of the world (India, East Asia, Australia, West Africa). In contrast, climate variability in the inter-tropical Americas has generally been viewed in a local and regional context, rather than as a response to changes in the large-scale monsoon circulation regime. Climate and the Monsoons While broadly similar in a general sense, the phenomenological aspects of each regional monsoon circulation are different. They are uniquely determined not only by the land/ocean distribution in the region, but also by basin scale processes which determine the regional sea surface temperature distribution in each ocean, e.g., the ENSO cycle. Therefore, variations in the inter-tropical Americas monsoon and associated local and regional climate anomalies must be studied, modeled, and predicted as a response to tropical ocean and atmospheric variations on a near global scale. The Inter-American monsoon circulations are driven by land-ocean contrast and large scale variations in SST over the surrounding ocean regions of both hemispheres, e.g., the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic . Previous work has centered on documenting and understanding other aspects of climate variability such as the ENSO cycle or Atlantic Ocean variability, which are related to variability over the inter-tropical Americas. The new focus will be the Inter-American monsoon itself and the total effect of the external factors on its variability. To understand and predict the climate anomalies of the region, one must first understand the nature and causes of variability of the seasonal monsoon circulation. This will require documenting and understanding the nature of the climatological monsoon circulations and determining the nature and causes of year to year variations in those circulations. High quality data are needed to describe the large scale circulation systems and their relationship to local and regional climate anomalies. Those data are also needed to validate diagnostic and predictive models which relate ocean and land surface processes in the surrounding region of the large scale circulation. Sea Level Changes Understanding of sea level change in the inter- tropical Americas oceanic region is based on scattered tide gauge data, which is of variable length and date, and with poorly documented vertical geodetic control information (Hendry, 1993; Hanson and Maul, 1993). Prediction of future sea level based on a global scenario, such as the WMO/UNEP/ICSU value of 20 cm by the year 2025, must take into account the uniqueness of each region's tectonics, air and water currents, wind stress, and socio-economic political structures. In particular, the numerical models of ocean circulation and of geophysical processes such as post-glacial rebound, subsidence due to petroleum and/or ground water extraction, and vertical tectonic motion, are neither developed nor validated on the regional scale needed to be useful to politicians and managers for making social decisions. =09 Sea level needs to be addressed as a regional question because of the complicated relation between tide gauges and the factors affecting the measured values: geological aspects of land motion; ocean circulation; wind and steric changes; and eustatic changes associated with changes in the water on glaciers. A regional network of geodetically connected tide gauges is required not only to solve the scientific questions, but to ensure sufficient redundancy in the global sea level observing system for extra-regional understanding of the problem. Such a regional approach then creates the data base for applying the estimates of future sea erosion, storm surge inundation, salt water intrusion into groundwater supplies, and to political decisions associated with sustained economic development, legal descriptions of boundaries, mapping, and coastal zone management. In the inter-tropical Americas, regional networks of the Global Sea Level Observing System (IOC/UNESCO) are operational but are using pre-microelectronic technology at many sites. These tide gauges are being used regionally to study changes in the oceanic circulation, but the larger issue of understanding the low-frequency cause of sea level change (anthropogenic vs. natural) is not being addressed adequately. The Medium-Term Plan of the IOC subcommission for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (IOCARIBE) contains several proposals related to sea level change, coastal erosion, biogeochemical changes, and monitoring. Similarly, the tide gauge network of the eastern tropical Pacific is included in the TOGA network and is part of the scientific efforts in that basin. Except for support from UNEP and TOGA, these regionally integrated research plans using the expertise of more than a dozen nations are largely unsupported. Several regional courses in various aspects of oceanography have been conducted, but significantly more effort is required to develop the scientific infrastructure to conduct world class research. Coral Reefs Coral reefs are among the most diverse ecosystems on earth. Reef communities, constructed by living organisms and their deposited skeletons, are circumtropical, and provide important resources for coastal states in inter-tropical America (Milliman, 1973). The extraordinarily high species diversity on coral reefs (much of which is still unknown) is an important natural resource for human populations in tropical countries for a number of reasons. Reef organisms comprise a major proportion of the protein that these coastal populations consume. The genetic and chemical diversity found in reef species has increasing medicinal and aquacultural value. Economic benefits can be realized from the harvesting of aquarium fishes, ornamental shells and corals, pearls and associated mother-of-pearl objects, assuming the resources are carefully managed and not over-exploited. Ecotourism of sustained, properly managed reefs can also represent an enduring economic benefit. And finally, these near-shore barriers provide protection for shorelines from wave damage, especially during the current rising sea level (Milliman, 1993). Because coral reef ecosystems typically occupy long, relatively narrow areas adjacent to coastlines, they are impacted heavily by human activities. In many cases, activities such as deforestation, agriculture, construction, mining, and dredging of harbors have caused heavy sedimentation of nearshore waters, choking corals and associated reef biota. Agricultural and industrial pollutants also have damaged nearshore environments. The introduction of cash economies and mechanized technology into native artisanal fisheries has led to overexploitation of reef resources. Some detrimental fishing practices such as use of explosives and chemicals and anchor gouging have further decreased productivity. Introduced species have negatively influenced valuable local fisheries in some places. In the past few years the widespread incidence of coral reef "bleaching" (the loss of symbiotic algae resulting in tissue or colony death, which may be related to increased sea water temperatures) has introduced threats from basin to global scale to corals that already live near their upper temperature tolerances (Glynn, 1984; Williams et al., 1987). Subsequent replacement of corals by rapidly growing, fleshy algae (often related to increased nutrient inputs) has caused grave concern. When corals are replaced by algae, reef destruction (bioerosion) can rapidly exceed reef growth, destroying centuries of carbonate reef framework. While direct anthropogenic impacts pose the greatest immediate threat to most coral reef ecosystems, the possibility that global warming may increase sea water temperatures and/or raise sea levels presents a very serious danger to these ecosystems in the long term, i.e., possibly the next 200 years ( Note that this is not the conclusion of the IOC/UNEP task team in the wide Caribbean region; see "Climatic Change in the Inter-Americas Sea", UNEP, G. Maul, 1993). Although many countries are aware of their rich and rapidly deteriorating coral reef resources, they lack the scientific expertise to assess and manage their resources. =46urthermore, the oceanography of the region creates marine commonwealths of shared resources . The availability of larvae to replenish harvested or otherwise damaged stocks frequently is dependent on the actions of neighboring countries. An integrated effort is needed to identify threats to nearshore ecosystems and to initiate regional cooperative management plans. There has been considerable international interest in the development of an international, scientifically based, coordinated network that will assemble comparable environmental and biological data sets from nearshore marine environments throughout the tropics. Standardized and intercalibrated data are essential to distinguish among various classes of perturbations, particularly natural climatic variability, global trends such as warming, and local or regional anthropogenic effects such as nitrification, pollution, and sedimentation. Data will be needed on the biological condition of coral reefs and related environments (seagrasses, mangroves, plankton), the physical environment (air/water temperature, wind speed and direction, current speed and direction, upwelling conditions, barometric pressure, humidity, salinity, tidal level, visible and ultraviolet irradiance) and water quality (sediment load, nutrients and organic compounds, inorganic pollutants). III. ISSUES AND PRIORITIES 1. Understanding Climate The zero-order problem is to describe the characteristics of the climate system in the inter-tropical Americas and the causes of its variability. Focus should be placed on separating natural causes of climate variation from anthropogenic impacts when climate, sea level, and ecosystem processes are being studied. The priority scientific questions involve the following: (a) Defining and quantifying, to the extent possible, the impor- tant processes controlling the variability of precipitation and winds over the inter-tropical Americas; (b) defining and quantifying the processes that determine the ocean and land surface temperatures and their variability; and (c) defining and quantifying the effects of (a) and (b) on the oceanic circulation and sea level, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Progress in the following areas is needed in order to improve climate forecasts and their use in the decision-making process: =09 (1) The influence of the large scale forcing on the regional climate; (2) The relative importance of large scale forcing (e.g., planetary scale waves and the ITCZ) and small scale (e.g., sea circulation breezes) forcing in determining local climate; (3) In some regions, the regional-scale structure of the mean fields; (4) The role of land surface and vegetation feedbacks on regional precipitation; (5) Regional low-latitude mesoscale modeling and its application to climate studies and hydrological forecasts; (6) The climatology and importance of mesoscale rain-producing systems; (7) Blending of decision-making models with climate forecast model output; and probably (8) Tropical Storms; and (9) Population growth. Important to the improvement of climate forecasts are investigations with two major field research foci: Atmospheric boundary layer processes over land and ocean, and low-frequency modulation of atmospheric circulations by sea- surface temperature. Undertaking these investigations requires a basic infrastructure containing the following elements: * Implementation of an adequate fixed meteorological/oceanic observational network. * Mobile measurement systems to support process studies. * Computational resources. * A hierarchy of models. * Selective improvements in oceanic observing systems. * Data delivery, communications and archival systems. These systems must be robust, simple, and real-time when necessary. There are a number of cross-cutting issues with the subject of climate and forecasting. Following is a list of recommendations for collaboration and linkages: (a) The IAI foci of ENSO and Interannual Variability is the most obviously connected topic. (b) The IAI foci of Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity is highly dependent on climate descriptions. These are needed to help explain the distributions of individual species and patterns of high and low biodiversity. (c) Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles: An im- proved observing network is critical to providing GCM validation over Amazonia and surroundings. Moisture budgets are impossible without, inter alia, an adequate rawinsonde network over the region. 2. Coastal Zone Ecosystems The critical ecosystems in the inter-tropical Americas are the following: --Mangroves and marshes --Coral reefs and coral --Beaches and dunes --Rivers and deltas It is deemed necessary to carry out efforts toward setting up basic working guidelines and setting up rates of change processes. The basic working guidelines must lead to the setting up of the natural variations in the ecosystem processes and must determine the impact that anthropogenic activities have on those processes. The scientific topics are mainly related to the ecosystem processes. It is necessary to establish: --What will the change rate be? --What is causing these changes? --What is the socio-economic value of these changes? --What are the mitigation strategies? The information obtained from the programs and projects studies must lead to the identification and preparation of a diagnosis of the present situation. This will enable the decision-making process for long-term use of coastal resources, as well as their preservation and protection and/or recuperation. From the social standpoint, emphasis must be placed on those aspects derived from misuse made of the land, the environmental pollution, eutrofication, and exploitation of fisheries. Biological priorities include community structure, community interaction, illnesses of species, and the overexploitation and irrational use of resources. Physical processes to which research must be addressed include sediment-erosion balance, salinization, and hydrological flows. Priorities on research topics according to the relevance for the region and their scientific potential are listed below, utilizing the following key: =09 ($) =3D Insufficient financial resources 1 =3D High research priority 2 =3D National program 3 =3D Low priority at the regional level 4 =3D High regional relevance, but training/education needs SOCIAL: --Sediment balance 4 --Hydrological flows 1 ($) --Salinization process 3 BIOLOGICAL: --Structure and function 1 ($) --Illnesses 3 PHYSICAL: --Land use 1 ($) --Pollution, eutrofication 4 --Fisheries 1 ($) 3. Oceanography and Air-Sea Interactions The basic problem to address is defining the space/time variability of air-sea interactions. The priority scientific question is: What are the regional processes and mechanisms controlling the variability of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone? Suggested directions of future research: =09 (a) The study of the generation and maintenance of the SST in the tropical Atlantic and tropical Eastern Pacific, including the relative importance of the subsurface thermal structure variability and heat transport in the distribution (space/time) of SST anomalies. (b) The study of the regional air-sea interaction processes which may produce modulation of the ITCZ. (c) The definition of the role of the ITCZ variability in the precipitation patterns over the inter-tropical Americas. IV. UNDERLYING NEEDS National assessments of vulnerabilities to climate fluctuations and change must be undertaken in order to properly prioritize the scientific needs, education and training, and the allocation of resources within each member state. In this context, it may be necessary for member states to establish National Climate Programs. It was unanimously concluded that the relevant research communities in the region are not adequate to undertake the research suggested in this report. Within the inter-tropical Americas, improvements are needed in: =09 (a) modeling capability, (b) research observation capability, and (c) the number and level of meteorologically and oceanographically-trained personnel. Each of three working groups on climate forecasting, coastal zone ecosystems, and air/sea interactions listed specific needs for addressing their subject matter. The needs are similar and frequently overlap. Climate Forecasting High quality data are needed to describe the large scale circulation systems and their relationship to local and regional climate anomalies. They are also needed to validate diagnostic and predictive models which relate ocean and land surface processes in the surrounding region of the large-scale circulation. The development of an adequate historical data base will require the assembly and analysis of data which cover the entire region. Success in this task will therefore require a high degree of regional cooperation in the exchange of data and the pooling of intellectual efforts. GCMs are an important tool for studying and predicting long-term climate changes and environmental impact. New experiments or more complete analysis of data from earlier experiments will be needed in this study. Arrangements need to be made for extended visits of national scientists to the limited number of GCM modeling centers in the area. Coastal Zone Ecosystems It was felt that IAI should develop programs at the regional and local level addressed to the community as a whole, regarding global changes and other concerns. The programs would be aimed at fulfilling the following objectives: * Improving the community's perception of global changes. * Improving public awareness of environmental vulnerability, based on scientific research results. * Helping bring about a closer relationship between the scientific community and those entrusted with the decision- making power. * Improving public awareness of the impact of human activities on the functioning of natural systems. The IAI must promote their developing of regional policies and strategies aimed at elaboration of national plans to include in a joint coordinated manner the participation of the scientific-technical and political components. Recommendations and action plans for IAI regarding Climatic Forecasting; Coastal Zone Ecosystems and Air-Sea Interactions should cover the following: Data Collection and Data Management Needs (a) IAI should seek out and compile specific data sets focused on the inter-tropical Americas. (b) IAI should support purchasing of data sets (including analyses) to assure wide dissemination among participating countries. Data Base The data base requirements for adequately responding to the scientific questions should be determined. The IAI could obtain and gather available data focused on the Inter-tropical Americas. IAI could obtain a related database (including data analysis) to ensure a widespread dissemination among participating countries. The design and development of a regional information system is recommended to monitor rates of change in the ecosystem processes. The information system should be a contribution and be available--in accordance with existing regulations--to those charged with making political and technical decisions in the formulation of policies, strategies, and integrated plans and programs for the use, protection, and/or recuperation of the environmental resources. In addition, it is necessary to establish intercomparison capability so that all the new data can be traced to standard reference sources such as NBS. Electronic Data Communication Requirements It is suggested that dissemination of data and communication be made via Internet and CD ROMS for large data base groups, and via GTS for the distribution, within a fairly short period, of the observations, research results, and operations carried out. New meteorological and oceanographic reporting stations must be satellite linked and older stations replaced with satellite transmission equipment. Education and Training The following measures are suggested: (1) Specialized training courses and workshops; (2) Translation into Spanish and Portuguese of available educational materials, and preparation of additional materials for the elementary, primary, and secondary educational levels; (3) Promoting establishment and/or enlargement of reference material collections at higher level educational centers; (4) IAI could work with the different specialized agencies toward the development of higher level educational centers in relevant areas for the study of coastal area ecosystems; (5) Carry out efforts to improve the higher learning formation centers capability in procuring bibliographic information reference sources and to finance compact disc database services or other bibliographical information sources; (6) Develop methodology standardization workshops and equipment intercalibration; (7) Carry out training programs for trainers in the handling of integrated coastal areas; (8) Participate in the development of informal education programs integrating users from the communities involved; and (9) Promote realization of educational programs at all levels =09 Field Research It is recommended that a regional study be carried out to determine the availability of the following for carrying out the identified scientific studies: * trained human resources * infrastructure * equipment and materials Additional field research should be considered to adequately address the future in the Inter-Americas, especially in those areas where a scarce number of observations exists, (i.e. off-equatorial Atlantic, tropical eastern Pacific). Instrumentation needs/tools will have to be adapted to the needs of the programs undertaken, but it is foreseen that pooling of regional instrumentation resources will be necessary in view of the likely size of such programs. Studies should be carried out on the changes that have occurred in the coastal area. The mangrove systems might be a case in point for study. The use of similar methodologies could be applied to comparable conditions and results should be encouraged. Also recognized was the need for intersecting with other IAI research topics and developing recommendations for the collaboration and close working relationship among the various topics. There is also a need for better knowledge of national legislation dealing with environmental issues. and a need for improvement of that legislation. In fact, legal issues in general need to be studied with the goal of reaching minimum environmental standards. Cross-cutting Issues There is substantial interface between the IAI foci related to land-ocean-atmosphere and ENSO. To avoid duplication of efforts among the IAI scientific community, it is suggested that the land-ocean atmosphere focus concentrate its efforts in the Eastern Pacific and tropical Atlantic (including the Intra- Americas Sea) region. Related Programs The several relevant national, regional, and/or international programs dealing with related matters are here listed: (1) Plan of Action of the South West Pacific/Permanent Commission of the Pacific South West-CPPS. The following countries are part of this commission: Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, and Panama. At present, the Central American countries are beginning to join the plan, including Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. This Co-Commission is charged with carrying out control and monitoring programs in the coastal and marine environment. (2) IOCARIBE (IOC/UNESCO) (3) PRADEPESCA. Regional program to develop fisheries in the Central American Isthmus/OLDEPESCA/CE. It carries out projects dealing with fisheries, aquaculture and mangrove resources. (4) CEPPOL (IOC/UNEP) (5) Plan of Action of the Greater Caribbean/UNEP (6) WCU-ORCA/UICN (7) ICZM-IPCC (8) UNEP-RCU/PNUMA IOCARIBE (9) TOGA (sea level) (10) CARICOMP (11) IPCC V. REFERENCES Alm, A. Blommestein, E. and Broadus, J., 1988: Climatic Changes and socioeconomic impacts in the Caribbean. In: Implications of Climate Changes in the Wider Caribbean Region, UNEP (OCA) CAR WG.1/INF. 3, 107-127. Aparicio R. 1993: Meteorological and Oceanographic Conditions along the Southern Coastal Boundary of the Caribbean Sea, 1951- 1986. In: Maul, G. A., (ed.), Climatic Change in the Intra- Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp.100-114. Gallegos, A., Czitrom, S., Zavala J., and Fern=E1ndez A., 1993: Scenario Modelling of Climate Change on the Ocean Circulation of the Intra-Americas Sea. In: Maul, G. A., (ed.), Climatic Change in the Intra-Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp. 55-74. Glynn, P. W., 1984: Widespread coral mortality an.d. the 1982-83 El Ni=F1o warming event.. Environmental Conservation, 11, 133-146. Gordon, A. L., 1967: Circulation of the Caribbean Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 72 (24), 6207-6223. Gray, C. R., 1993: Regional Meteorology and Hurricanes. In: Maul, G. A., (ed.), Climatic Change in the Intra Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp. 87-99. Hanson, K. and Maul, G. A., 1993: Analysis of Temperature, Precipitation, and Sea-Level Variability with Concentration on Key West, Florida, for Evidence of Trace-Gas-Induced Climate Change. In: Maul, G. A., (ed.), Climatic Change in the Intra- Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp. 193-213. Hendry, M. 1993: Sea-Level Movements and Shoreline Changes. In: Maul, G. A., (ed.), Climatic Change in the Intra-Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp. 115-161. Maul, G. A., 1993: Climatic Change in the Intra-Americas Sea. UNEP/IOC, 389 pp. Maul, G. A., 1993: Implications of Future Climate on the Ecosystems and Socioeconomic Structure in the Marine and Coastal Regions of the Intra-Americas Sea. In: Maul, G. A., (ed.), Climatic Change in the Intra-Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp. 3-28. Milliman, J. D., 1993: Coral Reefs and their Response to Global Climate Change. In: Maul, G. A., Change in the Intra-Americas Sea, UNEP/IOC, pp. 306-321. Milliman, J. D., 1973: Caribbean coral reefs. In: Jones, O. and Endean, R. (eds.), Biology and Geology of Cloral Reefs. Academic Press, New York. Williams, E. H., Jr., Goenaga, C., and Vincente V., 1987: Mass bleachings on Atlantic coral reefs. Science, 238, 877-888. APPENDIX 1 IAI SCIENTIFIC THEMES * The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems; * High Latitude Processes; * Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions in the Intertropical Americas; * Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles; * ENSO and Interannual Climate Variability; * The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems; * The Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity. APPENDIX 2 ACRONYMS CARICOMP Caribbean Consortium for Marine Productivity CEPPOL Caribbean Environment Programme on Pollution (UNEP) CPPS Comisi=F3n Permanente del Pac=EDfico Del Sur (Permanent Commission for the South Pacific) ENSO El-Ni=F1o Southern Oscillation GCM Global Circulation Models GLOBE Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment GTS Global Telecommunications System IAI Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions ICZM-IPCC Integrated Coastal Zone Management/IPCC IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(WMO/UNEP) IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission IOCARIBE Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission for the Carribean ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone SST Sea Surface Temperature TOGA Tropical Oceans/Global Atmosphere UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNEP/ United Nations Environmental Programme RCU/ Regional Coordinating Unit IOCARIBE Intergovernmental Oceanographic Comission for the Caribbean WMO World Meteorological Organization NSF National Science Foundation NOAA/OGP National Oceanic and Admospheric Administration/Office of Global Programs APPENDIX 3 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS Paulo Nobre=09 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE/CPTEC=09 Av. dos Astronautas 1758=09 S=E3o Jos=E9 dos Campos, S=E3o Paulo 12226 BRAZIL=09 Tel. (55 123) 229 977 ext. 270=09 =46ax (55 123) 228 743 pnobre@cptec.inpe.br =09 Alice Grimm=09 Universidade Federal do Paran=E1=09 Departamento de Fisica=09 Caixa Postal 19081 81531-990 Curitiba, PR=09 BRAZIL=09 Tel. (55 41) 366 2323 ext. 193 =09 =46ax (55 41) 267 4236=09 almgrimm@inf.ufpr.br =09 Belisario Andrade=09 Universidad Cat=F3lica=09 =46acultad de Historia y Geograf=EDa=09 Av. Vicuna Mackenna 4860, Santiago=09 CHILE=09 Tel. (56 2) 552 6028=09 =46ax (56 2) 552 6028 =09 Jos=E9 Rutlant=09 Universidad de Chile Departamento de Geof=EDsica=09 Blanco Encalada 2085=09 Casilla 2777, Santiago =09 CHILE=09 Tel. (56 2) 696 8790=09 =46ax (56 2) 696 8686=09 jrutllan@uchcecvm.cec.uchile.cl=09 Hugo Romero=09 Universidad de Chile=09 Marcaleta 250, Casilla 3387, Santiago=09 CHILE=09 Tel. (562) 222 6501=09 =46ax (562) 222 9522 =09 Jos=E9 A. Lozano =09 Academia Colombiana de Ciencias=09 Carrera 3a. A No. 17-34 p=B0 3, Apdo 44763=09 Santaf=E9 de Bogot=E1=09 COLOMBIA=09 Tel. (57 1) 341 4805=09 =46ax (57 1) 283 8552 =09 Ivan Dario Correa Arango=09 Universidad EAFIT Cra 49 No. 7 Sur 50 Medellin =09 COLOMBIA Tel. (57 4) 260 0500 =46ax (57 4) 266 4284 =09 Leonor Botero=09 Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas (INVEMAR)=09 Apartado A=E9reo 1016, Santa Martha=09 COLOMBIA=09 (57 54) 211 380=09 (57 54) 211 377 =09 Alejandro Gutierrez Departamento de Meteorolog=EDa Marina Instituto Meteorol=F3gico Nacional=09 Apartado 7-3350-1000, San Jos=E9=09 COSTA RICA=09 Tel. (506) 238 467=09 =46ax (506) 231 837 =09 gechever@ucrvm2.bitnet =09 Walter Fern=E1ndez=09 Universidad de Costa Rica Escuela de F=EDsica y Centro de Investigaciones Geof=EDsicas=09 2060 San Jos=E9 =09 COSTA RICA=09 Tel. (506) 535 323 ext. 5389=09 =46ax (506) 342 703 =09 wfernand@ucrvm2.bitnet=09 Sandra Le=F3n Coto=09 Decanato Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales=09 Instituto Meteorol=F3gico Nacional=09 Apartado 86-3000 Heredia=09 COSTA RICA=09 Tel. (506) 376 363 ext. 2917 =46ax (506) 377 593 Ordonez=09 Instituto Oceanogr=E1fico de la Armada=09 INOCAR=09 Av. 25 de Julio, Guayaquil=09 ECUADOR=09 Tel. (59 34) 491 105=09 =46ax (59 34) 443 652 =09 Jos=E9 Luis Santos =09 =46acultad de Ciencias Marinas - ESPOL=09 Centro de Recursos Costeros=09 P.O. Box 09-01-5863, Guayaquil=09 ECUADOR=09 Tel. (5934) 269 469=09 =46ax (5934) 354 629 =09 jlsantos@espol.edu.ec =09 Calvin Gray=09 Meteorological Service=09 Norman Manley International Airport=09 P.O. Box 103, Kingston 10=09 JAMAICA=09 Tel. (809) 924 8055=09 =46ax (809) 924 8670=09 Luis Calder=F3n Aguilera=09 CICESE=09 Apdo. Postal 2732 Ensenada, Baja California=09 MEXICO=09 Tel. (52 617) 450 56=09 =46ax (52 617) 451 56=09 leca@cicese.mx=09 Carlos Gay=09 UNAM=09 Centro de Ciencias de la Atm=F3sfera=09 Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510=09 MEXICO=09 Tel. (52 5) 6224 053=09 =46ax (52 5) 6160 789=09 cgarcia@redvax1.dgsca.unau.mx =09 =46austino Rodriguez Romero=09 Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnolog=EDa=09 UNAM=09 Apartado Postal 70-305, M=E9xico, 04510 D. F. MEXICO=09 Tel. (52 5) 622 5814=09 =46ax (52 5) 616 0748 =09 Alfonso V=E1squez Botello=09 Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnolog=EDa (UNAM)=09 Apdo. Postal 70-305, M=E9xico 04510, D.F.=09 MEXICO=09 Tel. (52 5) 622 5810=09 =46ax (52 5) 616 0748 =09 =46ernando Gonz=E1lez=09 Centro de Investigaci=F3n en Alimentacion y Desarrollo Apartado Postal 711, Mazatl=E1n, Sinaloa 82000=09 MEXICO=09 Tel. (52 69) 880-157=09 =46ax (52 69) 880 159=09 gfarias.redvax1.dgsca.unam.mx =09 Steven Paton=09 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute=09 Unit. 0948 Apo AA 340002-0948=09 P.O. Box 2072 Balboa =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 276 022=09 =46ax (507) 325 978 =09 Vilma Cuellar=09 Agroclima de Panam=E1 Consultor=EDa, S.A.=09 Galeria Alvear No. 214, via Argentina =09 6A-6746, El Dorado, Panam=E1=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 637 653=09 =46ax (507) 640 602=09 =09 Richard Condit=09 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute=09 Unit 0948, Apo. AA 340002-0948, Balboa 2072 =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 276 022=09 =46ax (507) 325 978=09 strfdp01@sirm =09 Janzel Rogelio Villal=E1z=09 Universidad de Panam=E1=09 Ciencias Naturales y Exactas=09 Depto. de Biolog=EDa Acu=E1tica =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 237 870=09 =46ax (507) 237 870 =09 Luis D. Croz=09 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute=09 Panam=E1, Naos Marine Lab =09 PANAMA=09 (507) 284 022 =09 Jos=E9 Batista Universidad de Panam=E1 =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 636 133 ext. 192 =09 Zuleika Pinzon Mendoza=09 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute=09 Unit 0948, Apo AA 34002-0948=09 P.O. Box 2072, Balboa=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 276 022=09 =46ax (507) 325 978 =09 David Farnum=09 I.R.H.E.=09 Edificio Hatillo - Mezanine=09 Apdo. 5205, Panam=E1 5=09 PANAMA =09 Gloria Batista=09 Instituto del Canal de Panam=E1 y Estudios Internacionales=09 Estafeta Universitaria =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 699 962 ext. 416=09 =46ax (507) 699 963 =09 Mar=EDa Josefa Villar=09 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute=09 Unit 0948, Apo. AA 34002-0948=09 P.O. Box 2072, Balboa=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 276 022=09 Antonio Tourino=09 Escuela de Ge=F3grafo Profesional=09 Universidad de Panam=E1=09 Estafeta Universitaria, Los Cumbres=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 63 6133 ext. 192=09 =46ax (507) 32 4083 =09 Marilin Di=E9guez Pinto=09 Universidad de Panam=E1=09 Centro de Ciencias del Mar Y Limnolog=EDa=09 =46acultad de Ciencias Naturales y Exactas=09 Apdo. 87-1238, Zona 7, Panam=E1=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 636 133 ext. 337=09 =46ax (507) 324 083 =09 Bertha Alicia Olmedo=09 Universidad de Panam=E1=09 Estafeta Universitaria=09 Entrega General Apdo. 10012=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 232 071=09 strem110@sivm.edu =09 Elena Lombardo=09 Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute=09 Unit 0948, Apo. AA 34002-0948=09 P.O. Box 2072, Balboa=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 276 022 =09 Sayda de Grimaldo=09 Universidad Tecnologica de Panam=E1 (UTP)=09 P.O. Box 3368, Balboa-Ancon =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 203 666=09 =46ax (507) 203 666 =09 Lucas E. Calvo Gobbetti=09 Centro de Investigaciones Hidr=E1ulicas E Hidrot=E9cnicas=09 Universidad Tecnol=F3gica de Panam=E1 (UTP)=09 P.O. Box 6-1894, El Dorado=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 203 666=09 =46ax (507) 203 666=09 sgrimald@utp.vm1 =09 Ra=FAl E. Ramos=09 Universidad de Panam=E1=09 El Cangrejo Bella Vista =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 636 133 ext. 192 =09 Enido Sopalda Torres=09 INRENARE=09 Paraiso-Ancon =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 32 4486=09 =46ax (507) 32 4578 =09 Justo A. Medrano V.=09 Universidad de Panam=E1=09 Departamento de Qu=EDmica=09 Estafeta Universitaria=09 PANAMA=09 Tel.(507) 636 133 ext. 192 =09 Bogdan Kwiecinski=09 CCML Universidad de Panam=E1=09 Estafeta Universitaria =09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 641 586=09 Orlando Oscar Osorio=09 INRENARE Altos de Curundu=09 Edificio 582, Apartado 2016 Paraiso-Ancon-Panam=E1=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 325 751=09 =46ax (507) 325 751 =09 Gerardo Leis=09 Universidad Nacional de Panam=E1=09 Escuela de Meteorolog=EDa=09 Estafeta Universitaria=09 Apartado 10012=09 PANAMA=09 Tel.(507) 30 1211 ext. 192=09 =46ax (507) 63 7671 =09 Belgis Chial =09 Universidad Nacional de Panam=E1=09 Centro de Ciencias del Mar y Limnolog=EDa=09 Apartado postal 871713, Zona 7, Panam=E1=09 PANAMA=09 Tel. (507) 35 5107=09 =46ax (507)324 975 =09 =09 Lisa Farrow=09 NOAA/OGP=09 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910 =09 USA=09 Tel. (301) 427 2089=09 =46ax (301) 427 2073=09 farrow@ogp.noaa.gov =09 Rub=E9n Lara Lara=09 IAI Office of the Executive Scientist=09 c/o NOAA/OGP 1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1201=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910 =09 USA Tel. (301) 589 5747=09 =46ax (301) 589 5711=09 lara@ogp.noaa.gov=09 Raquel S. Gomes IAI Office of the Executive Scientist=09 c/o NOAA/OGP 1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1201=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910 =09 USA Tel. (301) 589 5747=09 =46ax (301) 589 5711=09 Jos=E9 Luis Ochoa de La Torre=09 CICESE Carretera Tij-Ensenada, B.C. Tel. (52 617) 442 00=09 =46ax (52 617) 451 54=09 jochoa@cicese.mx =09 Peter Waylen =09 University of Florida=09 Department of Geography=09 Gainsville, FL 32611-7315=09 USA=09 Tel. (904) 392 0494=09 =46ax (904) 392 8855 =09 Shirley Fiske=09 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration=09 1335 East-West Hwy, SSMC-3=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910=09 USA Tel. (301) 713 2431=09 =46ax (301) 713 0799=09 Nicholas Graham=09 University of California-San Diego=09 Scripps Institute of Oceanography=09 Climate Research Group A-024=09 La Jolla, CA 92093 USA=09 Tel. (619) 534 0382=09 =46ax (619) 534 8561=09 =09 Marjorie Reaka-Kudla=09 University of Maryland=09 Department of Zoology=09 1200 Zoology-Psychology Bld.=09 College Park, MD 20742-4415=09 USA=09 Tel. (301) 405 6944=09 =46ax (301) 314 9358=09 reaka.zool.umd.edu =09 Paul D. Try=09 GEWEX World Climate Research Programme =09 409 Third St., SW Suite 203=09 Washington, D.C. 20024=09 USA=09 Tel. (202) 863 0012=09 =46ax (202) 488 5364=09 gewex@cais.com =09 Michael Douglas=09 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/ERL/NSSL=09 1313 Halley Circle Norman, OK 73069=09 USA=09 Tel. (405) 366 0525=09 =46ax (405) 366 0472=09 mdouglas@nssl.nssl.woknor.edu =09 Claes G. H. Rooth=09 University of Miami/RSMAS=09 Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies=09 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway=09 Miami, FL 33149=09 USA=09 Tel. (305) 361 4162=09 =46ax (305) 361 4457=09 crooth@rsmas.miami.edu cimas=09 George Maul=09 =46lorida Institute of Technology=09 150 West University Boulevard=09 Melbourne, FL 32901-6988 =09 USA=09 Tel. (407) 768 8000 ext. 8096=09 =46ax (407) 984 8461=09 gmaul@zach.fit.edu =09 Stephen Piotrowicz=09 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration=09 1315 East-West Hwy=09 SSMC-3 11th Floor OAR/PDC=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910=09 USA=09 Tel. (301) 713 2465=09 =46ax (301) 713 0666=09 spiotrowicz@red.noaa.gov Mar=EDa Donoso=09 University of Miami=09 4600 Rickenbaker Causeway=09 Miami, FL 33149 =09 USA=09 Tel. (305) 361 4364=09 =46ax (305) 441 9004=09 smtp%donoso@ocean.aoml.erl.gov =09 Hern=E1n P=E9rez Nieto=09 Comisi=F3n Nacional de Oceanolog=EDa (CONICIT) Ap. Postal 70305, Los Ruices, Caracas=09 VENEZUELA=09 Pablo Penchaszadeh=09 Instituto de Tecnolog=EDa y Ciencias Marinas=09 INTECMAR - Universidad Sim=F3n Bolivar=09 P.O. Box 89000, Caracas=09 VENEZUELA=09 Tel. (58 2) 906 3052=09